Wrapping up a three-game set south of the border, the Los Angeles Dodgers should have their ace ready to make the start in this showcase game, giving fans in Mexico a real taste of Major League pitching. While Clayton Kershaw hasn’t been in peak form yet in 2018, he’s still pitching well and will have a chance to polish up against a lackluster San Diego Padres team that’ll counter the ace with a 23-year old rookie southpaw, Eric Lauer.
First pitch for the game between the Dodgers and Padres is scheduled for Sunday, May 6, 2018, at 4:10 p.m. ET at Estadio de Beisbol Monterrey. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
After running away with the NL West last year, the Dodgers are in fourth place in the division, but they’re ahead of one team: the team they’re playing in this game, the Padres.
Los Angeles is struggling based on the standards of a team that made it as far as Game 7 of the World Series a season ago, but they’re still playing better than the Padres.
Sure, the lineup without Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig and Logan Forsythe is more pedestrian than playoff-worthy, but this team was deep. They got production up and down the order last year. Guys like Matt Kemp, Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor need to step up, but the names are there.
It’s certainly a better picture than the one in San Diego. While the Padres have one of the best farm systems in the game, they’re still piecing together the major league roster with a smattering of young talent, some should-be bench players and a few failed prospects all held together by the most expensive glue the free agent market could provide in Eric Hosmer.
The offense in San Diego is desperately waiting for the reinforcements in the minors while the Dodgers’ bats are lacking the reinforcements on the disabled list. With neither set of reinforcements coming to impact this game, the Dodgers have the edge at the dish.
Probable Pitchers
In his Major League debut, Lauer allowed seven runs in only three innings against the Rockies, who at the time had the worst batting average in the league. He gave up six hits in three innings, including a home run.
Playing in Coors, of course, is tough and it’s even tougher when that’s your first big league outing. He was a bit better in his second start, going five innings against the Giants. While he lasted longer and cut down the number of runs allowed, giving up just three, he still allowed seven hits and was mediocre—at best—while only going through the order a couple times.
On the plus side, he has now struck out 10 batters in eight innings. On the negative side, he’s allowed 10 runs, nine earned, walking six and giving up 13 hits.
Lauer will get another chance to adjust to the higher-level hitter in his third big league start. He’ll also continue his adjustment to the Major League ball.
Prior to his promotion, Lauer was pitching in Triple-A El Paso, making three starts and throwing well, giving up six runs in 18 innings while striking out 19 and walking only six. He’s a career 9-10 with a 3.04 ERA over three minor league seasons and 35 games.
While the Padres go with a young, in-experienced southpaw trying to find his way, the Dodgers have—arguably—the game’s best southpaw on the bump.
At 30-years old, Kershaw already has a Hall of Fame resume. He’s pitching to a .681 winning percentage in 11 seasons with a 2.37 ERA and 1.005 WHIP. The three-time Cy Young Award winner and seven time top-5 finisher 17-6 with a 1.94 ERA in his career against the Padres. He’s 7-2 with a 1.72 ERA in his career at Petco Park so it may be a blessing for San Diego that this game is played in Mexico.
In any case, Kershaw is a beast and it’s hard to bet against a team with Kershaw on the mound, even if it’s riddled with injuries. Still, Kershaw hasn’t quite been himself in 2018. He’s pitching to a 2.86 ERA which is still good, but not typical Kershaw. He’s also just 1-4 and has not pitched as deep into games, struggling at times to put hitters away quickly, a trademark of his when he’s at his best.
Still, 90-percent of Kershaw beats a struggling rookie.
Live Betting
The Padres have the apparent advantage late in the game as Kenley Jansen is still missing a few miles per hour on his fastball. He’s been much more hittable in 2018 which makes the team vulnerable in close game. There are questions setting up Jansen, too.
If the game is tied late and things come down to the pens, the Padres should have the upper-hand even with their opponent batters a bit stronger.
Look for the Dodgers to gain an early lead. Bet on them to break through first, though Eric Hosmer is a player to watch against Kershaw.
Playing in Kansas City before this year, Hosmer has only seen Kershaw eight times, but he’s 5-for-8 against him with a home run. Matt Szczur has also hit one deep against Kershaw, going 3-for-7 against him with two doubles as well.
Brad Hand, the Padres’ All-Star closer, has given up homers to Yasmani Grandal and Cody Bellinger, outside that, however, he’s dominated the Dodgers’ hitters who are a collecting 15-for-79 against him with 24 strikeouts and a cumulative .264 OBP.
MLB Pick
This is quite a pitching mismatch on paper. While it would be fun to call a reverse-jinx here given the mismatch, it’s hard to bank on San Diego in this game.
The Padres aren’t hitting and they go against one of the game’s true aces. That’s not a great combination. Look for Kershaw to pitch well and out duel Lauer in what may ultimately be a low scoring affair. The Dodgers cannot be counted on to deliver many runs given the state of the lineup, but Kershaw shouldn’t need many to get the win.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 4, Padres 2
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