In a continuation of a potential postseason preview series, the Atlanta Braves will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the third game of the four game set on Saturday evening. It should be a fun matchup against two of the NL’s more balanced teams. This game in particular will feature a pair of southpaws on the hill with former Brave lefty Alex Wood pitching for the Dodgers and second year lefty Sean Newcomb on the bump for Atlanta.
First pitch of the game between the Dodgers and Braves is scheduled for Saturday, July 28, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at SunTrust Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on MLB Network.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
Going back to May 17, the Dodgers are arguably the best team in baseball. They’re 40-20 since that date though they did drop their series against the Phillies heading into this weekend set with the Braves.
In their first head-to-head series, the Dodgers took two of three from the Braves when they met in Los Angeles, but Atlanta—unlike L.A.—comes into this series off back-to-back two-game series splits.
On a high level, both the Braves and Dodgers come into the series 10-games over-.500 and are neck-and-neck in overall rankings in terms of runs scored and OPS though on the mound the Dodgers have the edge in team ERA.
That pitching advantage is important, particularly as it relates to the bullpen. Los Angeles is on the hunt for relief help, but L.A.’s bullpen ERA is still a respectable 3.78 while Atlanta sits at 4.20.
Despite that, the perception is the Braves have some better arms in their pen albeit less experienced and more volatile. Both teams will look to add before July 31. We’ll see if that happens for either club prior to Saturday. If so, that could shift the advantage.
For now, the Dodgers are in a better position in relief thanks to Kenley Jansen in the ninth. He’s a lockdown option and L.A. is getting key arms back now, too. Pedro Baez, for instance, is back off the DL and helps deepen the options for Dave Roberts on the back-end.
Probable Pitchers
Alex Wood will be plenty motivated in this game as he faces his first big league team in the Braves. Atlanta dealt Wood to the Dodgers a couple years ago in a deadline deal when Atlanta was still rebuilding.
Wood’s been a good pitcher since joining L.A. and leads the Dodgers in innings pitched, games started, and a couple other categories this year.
Overall, in his 20 starts, Wood is just 6-5, but is pitching to a 3.87 ERA and 3.47 FIP. His 1.182 WHIP is very strong as is his 4.26 strikeout to walk ratio which is kept in check by a low walk rate.
The 27-year old southpaw isn’t a dominating force on the mound, but he’s an above average starter that generally keeps his team in the game.
In fact, while he struggled in the first inning of his last start, he eventually powered his way through six innings, limiting the damage to the two runs he allowed in the first. After that, he shutout the Brewers.
Wood has made six straight quality starts dating back to June 22 and has generally been throwing the ball very well lately though in his only start against Atlanta this year, he lasted just 4.2 innings while allowing four runs. Granted, only two of those runs were earned, but he still allowed nine hits.
Over his career against the Braves, Wood has made four starts, not faring well. He’s allowed 20 runs—13 earned—in 19.1 innings while posting a 1-3 record.
On the other side of this pitching matchup, Sean Newcomb comes into the game with a 9-5 record, 3.41 ERA and 1.279 WHIP.
Newcomb is allowing a few more base runners than Wood, largely due to a much higher walk rate. He’s walking a batter every other inning. Fortunately, he’s been able to maintain a low batting average against and lower than average BABIP
While his ERA is better than Wood’s, his FIP is higher at 4.24. He hasn’t shown nearly as good of command though his raw stuff is better.
In general, Newcomb has been impressive in his 20 starts, but at 111 innings, he’s already thrown 11 more in the Majors than last year and could tire down the stretch. Perhaps we’re already seeing it. He was good in his last start, going six innings of one-run ball against the Marlins to get his ninth win, but prior to that, the Braves had lost five of his starts in a row. He took the lost in his first three starts in July and allowed 13 combined runs in just 12 innings against the Yankees, Brewers and Diamondbacks. Los Angeles certainly matches up closer to those three teams than to the Marlins so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares.
Live Betting
The season long numbers put the Braves and Dodgers offense rather even, but more recently the Dodgers are hitting the ball better.
L.A. has lost Justin Turner—again—and that was a big hit earlier this year, but now the team has Manny Machado who can slide over to third and a deep roster of players that Roberts can move around to fill spots.
Machado has hit pretty well in his first week or so in L.A., but he’s not the only quality bat in the order like he was in Baltimore. In fact, the Dodgers—even without Turner—have five players with an OPS+ of at least 125 and seven over 110.
This is a tough lineup to navigate and one that has scored 32 more runs in July than the Braves. While Atlanta has played three fewer games, the differential is still quite large as the Braves’ offense—which was at one time the best in the NL—has cooled while the Dodgers’ continues to be red-hot.
The Braves have been linked to some offensive upgrades though it’s been third base as the primary spot where Johan Camargo is having a good year with a .798 OPS. Really, shortstop and centerfield have been the offensive weak spots with Ender Inciarte having a down year and Dansby Swanson getting on base at a meager .305 clip while having not nearly enough pop to make up for it.
Swanson, however, does have a .341 OBP in his last 21 games though Nick Markakis has regressed from his unsustainable start in that span as has both Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki.
MLB Pick
It’s been a good year for Newcomb, but the Dodgers are a good hitting team, deep with talent. Look for Los Angeles to exploit the young southpaw’s command issues and put a few early runs on the board against him.
The early lead should allow Wood to settle in against his former team who he’ll be motivated to beat. While Wood’s season hasn’t been as good this year as last, he’s still a solid Major League starter and showed his last time out that he can limit damage when necessary. Newcomb, on the other hand, is still learning how to do that.
Count on the Dodgers to grab an early lead for Wood to get L.A. into the sixth with the lead intact. From there, the Braves will have their best chance to get back even before the ninth where Jansen is lockdown.
Look for the Dodgers to bend, but not break in the middle innings, ultimately coming away with a narrow win on the road.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 5, Braves 4
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
