Two of the preseason favorites in the National League clash in a three game mid-week series with the finale slated for Thursday afternoon. The Chicago Cubs will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in this showdown with the Cubs hoping to get their pitching back on track against a stacked Dodger lineup. There’s still plenty of baseball to be played this season, but this could be an interesting preview of a postseason series provided the Cubs can continue to bounce back from their cold start to the season.
First pitch for the game between the Dodgers and Cubs is scheduled for Thursday, April 25, 2019, at 2:20 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
These two contending teams met face-to-face seven times last year with the Cubs having the slight edge though the Dodgers took two of three in Chicago.
L.A. will look to grab another series win in the Windy City this week, including taking the series finale on Thursday afternoon. Looking at the early season numbers, they would seem to have an advantage, at least on offense.
The Dodgers have outscored every other team in the NL with 136 runs and have a .847 team OPS while hitting 44 home runs and sporting a .264 average. The average isn’t the best in the NL, but the rest of those numbers are. By comparison, the Cubs have scored 26 fewer runs, hit 18 fewer home runs and have an OPS 60-point lower.
L.A. has played a few more games than the Cubs, but the extra at bats only make so much of a difference.
On paper, the Cubs and Dodgers both have deep lineups, but the Cubs have more players struggling out of the gate, including some big bats like Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber. The Dodgers aren’t getting what they expected from Justin Turner or A.J. Pollock, but Pollock still has 14 RBIs and Turner is still batting .260. Rizzo is hitting under-.200 and Bryant has just one homer.
Perhaps the biggest difference has been the bat of Cody Bellinger. He’s battling with Christian Yelich for Player of the Month honors. Bellinger has a .424/.500/.882 slash line with 11 home runs, 28 RBIs and 26 runs scored. Joc Pederson meanwhile is also hitting quite well with 10 bombs of his own.
Probable Pitchers
Both teams have some uncertainty in the rotation going into this start. For the Dodgers, the uncertainty is around the return of Rich Hill.
Ross Stripling is slated to get the start on Thursday, but it may be his last start for a while as he’s been filling in for Hill while he’s been on the IL. It seems almost a shame for Stripling to lose his rotation spot after a strong five starts.
Going into this game, Stripling is 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA in 29.1 innings pitched. He’s generally not been given a long leash. He did pitch eight innings a couple starts ago, but was wildly efficient in doing so, throwing just 88 pitches. Dave Roberts doesn’t seem likely to give him more than 90 or so.
Still, Stripling has done well with that tight pitch count, but did get pulled after just 4.2 innings in his last start. He still threw pretty well in that contest, save a huge, two-run bomb to the upper deck by Christian Yelich, but nobody seems able to keep him in the park.
Stripling has allowed four homers this year and that’s some of the reason for a higher FIP than ERA at 4.11, but no matter how you look at it, Stripling has thrown well in 2019. He’s also found success in his career againt the Cubs, facing them five times—including two starts—and allowing just four runs on 16 hits in 14 innings. Most impressive is his strikeout to walk rate head-to-head against Chicago, striking out 18 with just one walk allowed.
On the Cubs side of this matchup, it could be either Kyle Hendricks of Jon Lester taking the bump.
The right-hander is lined up for the start, but Joe Madden noted the veteran southpaw could come off the IL as soon as Thursday depending on how he’s feeling.
If it is Lester taking the ball, the lefty is coming off an All-Star campaign last year where he led the NL in wins with 18 and had a 3.32 ERA. In three starts in 2019 before going on the IL, he was 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA. In nine career starts against the Dodgers, Lester is 4-3 with a 3.35 ERA.
If it’s Hendricks with the start, he brings an inflated 1.672 WHIP to the mound through his first four starts. He was 0-3 going into last game and came away with an impressive win, going seven scoreless innings allowing just three hits and two walks. He struck out 11 in the game and saw his ERA plummet from 5.40 to 3.54.
Hendricks hasn’t been as good in his career against the Dodgers as Lester as he’s 2-2 with a 5.16 ERA in four starts.
Live Betting
Neither team has a real lockdown option in the latter innings—save the Dodgers in the ninth with Kenley Jansen. That could make this game interesting as none of the projected starters are going to be given the chance to go too deep in the game.
The Dodgers would appear to have the slight edge in the bullpen by the numbers with a 4.81 ERA to the Cubs’ 5.08, but both rank in the bottom half of the NL in that category.
For L.A., Joe Kelly’s struggles have been the big reason for the team’s inflated pen ERA. He’s starting to pitch a bit better, but did give up a run in his last outing though he did also strikeout the side.
Scott Alexander and Dylan Floro have also been very successful in the early going while Julio Urias is now available to Dave Roberts out of the pen, offering some electric stuff and a nice contracts to Stripling, if needed.
For the Cubs, they’re still without their closer in Brandon Morrow. Pedro Strop is an okay replacement, but the Cubs pen in general has been a huge issue. The unit has gotten a bit better of late with some of the moves, but command has been an issue for the group at large, particularly Brad Brach and Steve Cishek, two of the later inning options.
MLB Pick
Lester would probably create a bit more problems for the Dodgers if he’s ready, but he could be a bit rusty having not faced live hitting for a little while. Either way, the L.A. offense is rolling and should be able to get some runs against the starter and tack on more against a questionable Cubs bullpen.
The Cubs will put a few on the board as the Dodger bullpen has had its own issues in the middle innings and Stripling has a low pitch count.
Nevertheless, look for the Dodger to hold onto the lead and then close it out with Jansen in the final inning to nail down the win.
Bank on the Dodgers at BookMaker to get the road victory in this one regardless of who takes the ball for the Cubs.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 7, Cubs 4
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