There was a ton of storylines coming out of the All-Star Game, but the two biggest featured the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers for very different reasons. From old tweets from Josh Hader to the saga of Manny Machado—which indirectly impacts both teams, these two teams were the spotlight and now get ready to kick off their respective second halves in a head-to-head battle on Friday.
First pitch for the game between the Dodgers and Brewers is scheduled for Friday, July 20, 2018, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park. The matchup will be televised locally.
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Odds Analysis
The Brewers stumbled into the break by dropping six in a row and falling out of first place in the NL Central. Milwaukee struggled in the second half last year, falling out of a postseason position they held at the break and will try to avoid a similar fate here in 2018.
While the Brew Crew have had a tough week considering the losses, the distraction from the racists tweets by Josh Hader and losing out on the sweepstakes for Manny Machado, the Dodgers have had much the opposite week.
Los Angeles was the winning bidder for Machado’s services and will presumably add him to the lineup as soon as the deal is finalized. The shortstop will essentially replace Corey Seager at short, allowing Chris Taylor to move to second or the outfield and add more depth—and more thump—to the roster for Los Angeles.
Of course, even without Machado the Dodgers were cruising along. The team was dead in the water in mid-May, but since that time they’ve gone 37-17 and have climbed atop the NL West.
Can the Dodgers keep the good times rolling? Can the Brewers use the break as a way to rebound from their struggles?
Probable Pitchers
Neither team has yet announced the projected starters for the series or even for Friday night’s game. Despite that, it’s safe to assume in both cases, it’ll be a solid Major League arm on the mound.
The Brewers have an underrated rotation. They’re looking to add to it, but they’re one of the top teams in the MLB in quality starts. They lack a solid No.1 or even No.2 starter, but they’re a rotation full of No.3 arms and that provides predictability.
On the other side, the Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw as their ace. Injuries limited to 13 starts and kept him from getting another All-Star bid, he’s a candidate to start later in the series, but took the ball Sunday and given the health issues earlier in the year won’t start on short rest out of the break. Meanwhile, Ross Stripling pitched some in the All-Star game and doesn’t figure to start Friday either. With Walker Buehler being sent down over the break, he’s seemingly out, too.
With that, it leaves Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Alex Wood. All three are quality Major League starters though none of them are real innings eaters though Wood does lead the team in innings and starts with 105.2 innings over 19 starts.
Between the three possible starters, Maeda has the best ERA at 3.12 in 18 games—including 16 starts—and has a 2.767 FIP driven by a high strikeout rate and just six home runs allowed. From there, Wood has a 3.92 ERA and the lowest WHIP at 1.174. He’s more of a control artist and has 3.2 fewer strikeouts per nine than Maeda but his walk rate is also half that of Maeda.
As for Hill, he’s probably the weak link of the group. The 38-year old curve ball specialist is 2-4 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.373 WHIP. He’s least likely to start, but also gives the Brewers the better chance in the game.
Speaking of the Brew Crew, the Brewers had Jhoulys Chacin go Sunday. He’s unlikely for Friday, but it could be Chase Anderson or Brent Suter as the most likely options given who remains on the roster from being sent down or put on the DL.
Anderson has the best numbers—when healthy—on the Brewers last year and has a 6-7 record and 3.78 ERA this year. Suter is pitching to a 4.39 ERA, but a better 8-6 record.
While Anderson has the better ERA, it’s Suter with the better FIP as he’s been more economical with the walks and has allowed a couple less home runs. Of course, neither pitcher has a FIP all that great with Anderson at 5.27 and Suter at 4.31.
Live Betting
In total runs scored, the Dodgers and Brewers rank similarly, both shaking out a little above average with the Dodgers ranking No.9 and Brewers No.11 in baseball. The differences are minor in total runs scored, but the way these two teams score is notable.
Los Angeles is a much more balanced team and much of the offensive numbers have come from their recent success. If not for the rough start to the year, their offensive numbers would look better compared to Milwaukee. Even so, the Dodgers have the better on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The Brewers can hit, but they can also be shut down by good pitching. They’ve been struck out nearly 100 more times than the Dodgers.
Over the last month, the Dodgers have seen Max Muncy hit nine homers and post a 1.056 OPS while Taylor, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, and Yasmani Grandal all put up great numbers. And now, the Dodgers can add Machado to the mix, granting Dave Roberts even more flexibility in finding the right matchups.
In Milwaukee, Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich were all All-Stars and they were all three hitting well going into the break. The rest of the order, however, has some flaws, particularly up the middle. Travis Shaw and Eric Thames are good players and while Brad Miller offered a bit more offensively after joining the team, his bat has cooled and is no longer worth the defensive downgrade.
While the Dodgers seemingly have the offensive edge in this matchup, particularly with Machado on board, the Brewers do have the better bullpen.
While the distraction for Josh Hader—along with his issues in the All-Star Game—could play a factor, this team still has one of the best bullpen ERAs in the NL, nearly half a run better than the Dodgers.
With Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, and so many others, Craig Counsell has a ton of options late in games allowing him to provide the best matchups to get outs.
For the Dodgers, finding the bridge from the starters to Kenley Jansen has been an issue from time-to-time. Scott Alexander is throwing better than he did earlier in the year while Erik Goeddel was a nice find, but the reliability is so much better in the middle innings in Milwaukee.
MLB Pick
While the pitching is still unknown, it doesn’t look like Kershaw will be on the mound thus leaving the pitching matchup a bit more balanced.
Look for the Brewers to slam a long ball or two to keep the game close, but ultimately, the Dodgers were playing better baseball going into the break and the Brewers were struggling.
Count on the Dodgers’ bats—particularly with the added energy of adding Machado—to surge and if Machado’s officially a Dodger and in the order, look for him to have a nice debut and do something big to help the Dodgers win the game.
With a rested pen behind whoever starts, the added depth in Milwaukee is less of a factor as all pitchers will be available for this game.
Take the Dodgers to win, kicking off the Manny Machado era with a victory.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 6, Brewers 4
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