It’s a rematch of the 2018 NLCS this weekend with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers and both teams are looking like contenders again in 2019. The third game of this four-game weekend series will be broadcast nationally in primetime and could be a pivotal one for the series. Can the Brew Crew take advantage of home field advantage and get some payback or will the Dodgers do as they did in the NLCS and emerge victorious?
First pitch for the game between the Dodgers and Brewersis scheduled for Saturday, April 20, 2019, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
These two teams just played each other last weekend in Los Angeles with the Brewers taking two of three on the road. Both teams scored 13 runs in the three games.
Last season, the Dodgers won the season series taking four out of seven games just like they did in the NLCS.
These two teams are evenly matched though by the numbers there is one area the Dodgers stand out: offense.
The Brewers have gotten some great production from Christian Yelich in the early going. He’s got a .354/.449/.785 slash line with eight home runs and 22 RBIs. Meanwhile, Mike Moustakas is providing plenty of pop with six dingers and has a .353 OBP. Lorenzo Cain is getting on base at the top of the order and Yasmani Grandal has made a good first impression in Milwaukee.
The former Dodger catcher went 6-for-11 against the Dodgers in their previous series and will try to continue to stick it to them on Saturday after they let him walk in the offseason.
While those four have hit well, the rest of the Brewers’ lineup is struggling. Jesus Aguilar has been had. Travis Shaw is batting .173. Ryan Braun has a few home runs and 12 RBIs, but a .218 OBP. Orlando Arcia is also batting below the Mendoza Line.
While the Brewers’ offense has been split in two with four batters carrying the load, the Dodgers really only have A.J. Pollock struggling at the dish. The rest of the team is hitting.
The Dodgers lead the NL in runs scored and their .891 team OPS tops baseball. The Dodgers’ right field has exceeded Yelich so far as Cody Bellinger is batting .433 with a 1.438 OPS, nine home runs and 23 RBIs.
Meanwhile, Joc Pederson has seven bombs and Max Muncy, Enrique Hernandez, and Alex Verdugo have each hit at least three. Verdugo’s coming in just 37 plate appearances.
Eleven different Dodger hitters have gone yard this year with backup catcher Rocky Gale—who has played just one game—and Justin Turner the lone exceptions. Despite not hitting one out, Turner is still hitting .308 on the year.
Probable Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw made his season debut on Monday night lining him up to make the start on Saturday on normal rest.
The veteran southpaw had an encouraging first outing. He gave up a big home run to Yasiel Puig, but otherwise commanded the ball well, mixed his pitches and induced soft contact. His fastball wasn’t what it was earlier in his career, but he sat in the low-90s, allowing his breaking pitches to play off of it with relative success.
In the game, he lasted seven innings, holding the Reds to two runs on five hits while he struck out six and didn’t walk a batter.
The 31-year old has been fantastic over the course of his career, accumulating 153 wins and a 2.39 ERA in a dozen years at the big league level, but he’s been injury prone over the last few years. While that’s eaten away at his innings pitched totals, he’s still been an elite pitcher when the takes the ball.
Last season, he made 26 starts and threw 161.1 innings with a 2.73 ERA and 1.041 WHIP. Prior to that he was 18-4 in 2017 with a 2.31 ERA in 27 starts and earned a second place finish in the Cy Young Award balloting. A three-time Cy Young Award winner and seven time top-5 finisher, Kershaw—when healthy—is a true ace and he appears healthy.
On the other side of this matchup, the Brewers have Freddy Peralta lined up for the start.
The 22-year old right-hander made a strong first impression in his 16 games last season. He threw 78.1 innings for the Brew Crew with a 4.25 ERA and 3.72 FIP. He struck out 96 batters and while his walks were a bit elevated, he did a good job keeping the ball in the park and minimizing damage.
He’s struggled a bit with the long ball, however, in the early going here in 2019. He’s made four starts and has a 1-0 record, but a 7.13 ERA with five home runs allowed. He has struck out 22 in 17.2 innings, but he’s also allowed seven walks and 20 hits with 14 runs scored.
Peralta does have an impressive 2-hit, eight inning shutout performance against the Reds this year, in his second game, but since then he’s allowed 10 runs and has failed to make it through four innings in back-to-back starts. In fact, save for that eight-inning performance, he’s pitched no more than 3.1 innings in the other three starts.
In his career, he’s faced the Dodgers just once, last year, and went four innings allowing only one run though he did have three hits allowed and four walks.
Peralta’s got good stuff and is a promising young arm, but he’s struggling with control right now.
Live Betting
Based on the starting pitchers, the Brewers’ bullpen is more important in this one as Kershaw tends to go deep in games.
That’s good news for the Dodgers who are still trying to get Joe Kelly on track in the setup role. He’s made six appearances, allowing 10 runs in 7.1 innings and has been scored upon in five of his six outings, the one he didn’t allow a run in was just one batter.
With Kelly’s struggles and both Pedro Baez and Yimi Garcia unreliable at the moment, too, Dylan Floro and Scott Alexander are the main options to get to Kenley Jansen in the ninth. Fortunately for the Dodgers, Floro hasn’t been scored upon in 9.1 innings and Alexander has allowed just one run in 6.2 frames.
On the other side of this matchup, the Brewers’ pen was their strength last year, but they started the season without two of their big end of game arms in Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress. Both remain out for this game.
That leaves Josh Hader and a collection of other names coming out of the pen. Hader remains one of the more prolific relievers in the game, but outside of starter-turned-reliever Junior Guerra, no other bullpen arm has found much success through the first few weeks of play.
MLB Pick
Kershaw isn’t as dominant as he once was, but he’s still a very good pitcher when health and he showed himself to be healthy in his first start of the season on Monday.
Look for Kershaw to get into the seventh inning against the Brew Crew and exploit the weaker half of their lineup. It seems nobody can shut down Yelich and he and/or Moustakas may get into one, but the Dodgers’ ace will keep the Milwaukee offense at bay enough to allow his own elite offense to grab the lead.
From there, the Dodgers have enough in the pen even with Kelly’s struggles to close the door and grab the win.
Even though Kershaw is no longer the consensus best pitcher in the game, it’s hard to bet against him on the road or otherwise. Take Kershaw and the Dodgers to come away victorious at BookMaker.eu.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 6, Brewers 3
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