The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets will kick-off a three-game series up in the Big Apple on Friday with the teams heading in completely opposite directions. After a hot start, the Mets are in free fall now and are starting to shop their veteran players while the Dodgers were nearly dead and buried just a month ago, but have ascended the standings in a hurry despite injuries. Now the two will meet face to face with Alex Wood and Zack Wheeler on tap to get the ball in this series opener.
First pitch for the game between the Dodgers and Mets is scheduled for Friday, June 22, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
It’s been really bad for the Mets of late who have won just four of their last 17 games heading into Wednesday.
Mickey Callaway’s crew has had a lot of issues all over the field, but they’ve looked especially lost at the plate. They’ve got a .599 team OPS in June and have scored just 50 runs in 16 games. Brandon Nimmo has scored 12 of those runs and driven in 11 with six home runs and a .268/.366/.635 slash line. Over the last 30 days, he’s hit 10 homers with a .299 average and 1.072 OPS.
While Nimmo is raking, the rest of the team is not. Asdrubal Cabrera was an offensive bright spot the first couple months, but is batting .180 in June which is better than Todd Frazier, Jose Bautista and Jay Bruce. Bruce, of course, is now on the DL alongside Yoenis Cespedes. The Adrian Gonzalez experiment is now over and the Dominic Smith reboot is underway with poor early returns.
In short, the Mets need someone other than Nimmo to step up. Perhaps that’s Michael Conforto or Amed Rosario, but it doesn’t look good for this matchup going into Friday.
While the Mets cannot seem to buy a run, the Dodgers are getting production from everyone that Dave Roberts calls up.
Joc Pederson is crushing it here in June. He’s batting .389 with eight home runs and a 1.615 OPS in 15 games while Max Muncy has a 1.178 OPS and Matt Kemp continues to rake with a .278/.344/.593 slash line.
Top to bottom in the order, everyone his hitting for Los Angeles right now. There are nine active hitters with at least a 100 OPS+ and at least 100 plate appearances.
Chris Taylor is hitting better now and doing well filling in at shortstop for Corey Seager. He’s got a .368 OBP in June. Justin Turner’s got a .375 OBP this month.
The Dodgers are getting power, but more importantly, quality at bats up and down the order.
Probable Pitchers
The Dodgers have their most durable arm slated to get the start on Friday with Alex Wood leading the team with 74.2 innings of work, making a team leading 14 starts.
The southpaw hasn’t been as good here in 2018 as he was last year. He’s just 2-5, but he’s got a respectable 4.22 ERA and an excellent 3.31 FIP and 1.179 WHIP.
Wood is coming off a strong start against the Giants where he lasted 5.2 innings, allowing one run on four hits and two walks. That was a nice bounce back outing after not making it through five frames the game before and going just two innings and allowing six runs to the Rockies on June 3. Prior to the month of June he had a 3.75 ERA so he’s not trending in the right direction.
Overall, the Dodgers are 7-7 in Wood’s 14 starts and the lefty tends to get an early hook, going more than six innings just once in his season debut back on March 30.
In his career, Wood is 0-3 against the Mets, but has a 3.94 ERA in eight starts. He’s 0-2 with a 4.56 ERA in four career starts at Citi Field. Meanwhile, the Mets have a .617 team OPS against southpaws this season.
On the other side of this matchup, Zack Wheeler has settled in after a rough start to the season.
The young right-hander is not an ace and his stock has fallen since he was one of the top pitching prospects in the game, but he’s settling into being a serviceable Major League starter. In fact, over his last eight games, he’s got a 4.24 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning and more than three and a half Ks per walk. Despite the respectable numbers in those eight starts, he’s 0-3 in that span due to poor run support and a lackluster bullpen behind him.
In total, his 2-5 record and 4.82 ERA don’t paint an exactly exciting picture, but like Wood, his FIP is much more promising at 3.81. He’s been good at avoiding the long ball, allowing just eight in his 13 starts.
The 28-year old is coming off his seventh quality start of the season, lasting six innings against the Diamondbacks, allowing two runs. Despite seven quality starts, however, the Mets are only 4-9 when he makes a start.
Wheeler also didn’t fare well in his only career start against the Dodgers, lasting two innings and giving up seven runs on eight hits, including three home runs. That terrible start came one year and three days prior to this start.
Live Betting
The Mets aren’t hitting, Wheeler was terrible in his only start against the Dodgers and while Wood hasn’t exactly thrived lately, he’s got a respectable track record. All of these facts don’t make this a favorable matchup for the Mets. Unfortunately for New York fans, it gets worse.
New York’s defense is on par with Los Angeles, but the bullpen isn’t remotely close. The Dodgers don’t have an exceptionally great bullpen, but the Mets ranks third from the bottom in the NL with a 4.52 bullpen ERA. In fact, the only teams worse off are the Marlins and the Rockies.
The Dodgers meanwhile boast a 3.70 team bullpen ERA and a .236 batting average against, 23-points lower than the Mets.
L.A.’s bullpen doesn’t come without its complications. Kenley Jansen struggled early, but he’s back on track with a 2.41 ERA, a 0.921 WHIP and 34 strikeouts in 33.1 innings.
Erik Goeddel has been amazing since getting the call, allowing one runs in 15.1 innings. Adam Liberatore has thrown 12.1 innings as a matchup reliever with four runs and just nine hits. He has walked seven, but has worked his way around the free passes.
In New York, Jeurys Familia can still get the job done if you can get to him with the lead, but with Seth Lugo now in the rotation, there’s Anthony Swarzak, but he’s still a bit rusty. That leaves Robert Gsellman, the failed starter with a 5.19 ERA last year as the primary set up man.
MLB Pick
Look for Wheeler to have an okay game for the Mets, going six innings, allowing three runs, but look for him to take the loss.
The Mets haven’t been able to do much against anyone on offense for a while now. Nimmo may have a hit or two and New York may scratch across a run or two against Wood, but ultimately, Wood hands the ball over to the bullpen with the lead and the pen will hold it for the Dodgers.
Kenley Jansen is back to being one of the best closers in the game so if the score does get close enough, he’ll be on call to close it out.
Regardless, look for the Dodgers bats to get to Wheeler and the Mets’ bullpen. The Dodgers are hitting on all cylinders right now and getting production regardless of who Dave Roberts puts in the lineup on a day-to-day basis.
The Dodgers are rolling right now and the Mets are struggling. It may be the perfect formula for a reverse-jinx, but I’ve still got the Dodgers over the Mets in a relatively easy one.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 6, Mets 2
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