The Los Angeles Dodgers have the NL West already under wraps as they get set for this primetime showdown on Sunday night in the Big Apple against the New York Mets. The Mets, however, have a bit more motivation in this ESPN Sunday Night Baseball showdown. New York is still vying for a playoff spot, sitting a couple games back of the second Wild Card spot. The Dodgers are the better team, but the Mets are at home with more motivation. Who will come out on top?
First pitch for the game between the Braves and Phillies is scheduled for Sunday, September 15, 2019, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citi Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Dodgers are the better team. They have a far superior record and they also have much less pressure in this game having already clinched the NL West title.
While Los Angeles, like most teams, is far better at home, the Dodgers are still a quality team on the road. The Mets’ home record is better than the Dodgers’ road record, but its close enough.
Head-to-head, the Dodgers took three of four when these teams met earlier this year in the Los Angeles and while L.A. is just 3-5 in their last eight road games, they’ve won six of their last nine overall.
The Mets are coming into this series having won their previous series against the Diamondbacks, another postseason contender, but the Dodgers are much more difficult opponent. The Mets’ 35-20 second half record and their .586 home winning percentage are impressive, but are they good enough against a team like Los Angeles?
Probable Pitchers
Zack Wheeler is on the mound for the Mets in this one, looking to give his team a huge win to close out this series at home. The only problem is, he’s facing the best team in the National League and being asked to match up pitch for pitch with an All-Star in Walker Buehler.
Wheeler comes into this game pitching rather well. He’s allowed just a single run in each of his last three starts. In those games, he had allowed 21 hits in 18 innings so the opposition has been getting on base, but Wheeler has limited the walks and worked out of trouble while keeping the ball in the ballpark.
Overall, the 29-year old free-agent-to-be is 11-7 with a 4.21 ERA in 173.1 innings of work. The Mets are 16-12 in his 28 starts and he’s been a bit inconsistent. Prior to his most recent solid three-game stretch, he has three games where he combined for 13 runs allowed in 16 innings.
In general, Wheeler has been a solid middle-of-the-rotation type arm. He’s pitched to a 97 ERA+ and has a 98 ERA+ over his career. He’s got an inflated 1.310 WHIP this season thanks in part to a high BABIP. His FIP is 3.61 showing he’s been a bit unlucky this season, but he’s generally had a lower FIP than ERA over his career. In his career, Wheeler has faced the Dodgers three times. He’s 1-2 in those starts, allowing 14 runs in 16 innings, including giving up six longballs.
On the other side of this matchup, Buehler is pitching in just his second big league season. He had a great rookie campaign and was named to the All-Star team this season. He’s pitched to a .813 winning percentage, going 13-3, and has a 3.14 ERA and 2.83 FIP.
The 24-year old right-hander has been incredible stingy with both the walks and homers, allowing just 28 walks and 18 jacks this season while he’s struck out 201 batters in his 166.1 innings. That leaves him with a staggering 7.18 K:BB ratio, a large part of his impressive FIP.
Like any young starter, however, Buehler can be a bit inconsistent. He’s coming off a four-hit, seven-inning shutout against the Orioles where he struck out 11 to help the Dodgers clinch their seventh straight NL West title.
The game was a nice bounce back after the Rockies got to him for six runs in five innings the game prior. Before that, however, he through back to back scoreless performances. In fact, he’s held the opposition scoreless in four of his last six starts.
Overall, Buehler is one of the better starters in the league while Wheeler is a serviceable mid-rotation arm. That gives the edge to the Dodgers though the Mets did get to Buehler in their only chance against him this year, scoring five runs in five innings. Despite that, the Dodgers still won the game, one of the 18 they’ve won with Buehler on the bump.
Live Betting
The Dodgers have had the best offense in the National League this season with a .816 team OPS. They’ve scored nearly 100 more runs than the Mets this season, but when you compare the two offenses in the second half, things are much closer.
The Mets have a few elite hitters including Pete Alonso whose 47 home runs, 109 RBI and 151 OPS+ leads the team. Along with him, Jeff McNeil boasts a 147 OPS+ and has a .325 average along with 20 homers and 35 doubles.
If you add in Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, Wilson Ramos and even Amed Rosario and Brandon Nimmo, you have a rather strong lineup, top to bottom.
The Dodgers, however, have Cody Bellinger who is on track for the MVP with his .303/.407/.634 slash line. His 44 homers and 106 RBI are neck-and-neck with Alonso. In addition to him, the team has Max Muncy coming back from injury with his 135 OPS+ along with 33 homers. Joc Pederson and Justin Turner have also been major power threats on this team.
The offensive depth for the Dodgers is what stands apart from the Mets as they have guys like Will Smith, David Freese and others who allow Dave Roberts to mix-and-match.
While the offenses for both teams are dangerous, the bullpens both have some issues.
The Dodgers’ bullpen still ranks third in ERA in the NL. The Mets’ is near the bottom with a 5.12 unit ERA.
Los Angeles has a declining Kenley Jansen in the closer’s role, but that’s an upgrade over Edwin Diaz who still has electric stuff but has been terrible this year.
In the set-up role, both teams have some questionable highly paid options. Jeurys Familia for the Mets has a 6.06 ERA and while he had a good stretch, he had a couple rough outings already in September. Joe Kelly on the other side had a terrible start to the year and turned the corner but has regressed a bit of late.
Still, the Dodgers have better relief options than the Mets who have Justin Wilson and Seth Lugo and little else. The Dodgers have Kenta Maeda back in the pen along with Julio Urias. Ross Stripling and Dustin May are other options as they have a ton of starter quality pitchers now throwing out of the pen.
MLB Pick
The Mets are a very good team at home and have been a strong second half team as well. That should give them a chance, but the Dodgers are just too good, and the pitching leans their way.
Look for a strong start for Buehler who should—mostly—keep the Mets in the ballpark while limiting free passes. That’ll make New York have to work to get on the board. They should plate a couple, but look for the Dodgers’ hitters to have a bit more success against Wheeler who, despite solid results the last few games has allowed more than his share of hits and base runners.
Count on the Dodgers to get the runners in and score some early runs to grab a quick lead. From there, they’ll add on against the middle of the Mets’ bullpen.
As for the Dodgers’ pen, there should be enough quality options to close this one out.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 6, Mets 3
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