Following a three-game series against the Brewers, the Los Angeles Dodgers next venture to the City of Brotherly Love where they’ll take on the Philadelphia Phillies. Much like their past series against Milwaukee, the Phillies are another team that were vying for the services of Manny Machado before the Dodgers scooped him up. Now, he’ll play against the Phillies as the Dodgers look to keep on the roll they’ve been on since mid-May.
First game of the series between the Dodgers and Phillies is scheduled for Monday, July 23, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The next two games of the series will be at 7:05 p.m. ET and 12:35 p.m. ET respectively. The final two games of the series will be broadcast on MLB Network with local coverage of all three games.
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Odds Analysis
Going back to March, who would have thought that this series would be a potential playoff preview, featuring two teams at the top of their respective divisions? The short answer is: very few thought enough of the Phillies.
Going back to early to mid-May, who even expected the Dodgers to be in first place given their horrendous start.
Fortunately for the reigning NL champions, they have been one of the best teams in baseball since a 16-26 start and have went from being 10-games under-.500 to 10-games over.
In that span, L.A. has been winning both at home and on the road. In fact, they’ve got a better record on the road at 27-10 this year.
The Phillies will be trying to defend their home park against this Dodgers’ team. They played L.A. tough in a four-game series at Dodger Stadium earlier this year. That did come after the rough start, too. The Dodgers were 8-2 in their last 10 games going into that series.
Philadelphia splitting that series on the road is huge, too, considering the Phillies are under-.500 on the road, but have a .660 winning percentage at home. That adds an extra challenge for the Dodgers.
Probable Pitchers
Ross Stripling with start the series opener on Monday for the Dodgers fresh off his trip to Washington, D.C. for his first All-Star game appearance.
Going into the break, Stripling tossed six scoreless against the Padres in his last start before the break to improve to 8-2 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.080 WHIP. His 2.72 FIP shows that luck is only a small factor in his success as he’s struck out 10.2 per nine innings and has a very impressive walk total of just 14 in 95.1 innings.
Stripling’s been able to improve his command and with that pinpoint control, keep the ball in the park and force weak contact often even when the opposition does make contact.
The Dodgers have won each of Stripling’s three starts in July and are 16-9 overall when he’s in the game. Meanwhile, Stripling hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any appearance all year. In fact, in his 13 starts since becoming entrenched in the rotation in May, Stripling has allowed more than two runs in a game just twice and has allowed no more than a single run in eight of those 13 starts.
Pitching against the red-hot Stripling on Monday will be the Phillies’ Zach Eflin.
Eflin has finally established himself at the Major League level this year going 7-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.078 WHIP in his 12 starts while throwing 68.2 innings. Like Stripling, he’s come out of nowhere to be a big part of his team’s rotation and has done it largely due to much improved command.
The young righty is coming off the DL to make this start so he’ll have a shorter leash, but he has been pitching exceptionally well of late. In fact, since early June, he’s 6-0 with a 2.32 ERA in seven starts.
While on the DL, Eflin only missed one start due to a blister, but blister issues can be tricky so the Phillies will have to watch him closely to be sure the blister doesn’t reform.
As the series progresses, the Phillies flip their rotation over for the final two games of the series with Aaron Nola starting Tuesday opposite Kenta Maeda and Jake Arrieta on tap for Wednesday’s afternoon affair.
Nola was impressive in his All-Star Game inning with a pair of strikeouts and a pop out by Mike Trout. He’ll carry that momentum into the second half.
In the first half, Nola was phenomenal, going 12-3 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in his 129 innings of work.
The right-hander has broken out from a good pitcher to a true ace with his production this year. He’s carrying this team on his shoulders as he’s posted a 2.61 FIP and been one of the most difficult pitchers to homer against, allowing just six bombs in 20 starts.
In addition to his strong performance this year, Nola also pitched well in his lone career start against the Dodgers, getting the win and allowing just one run on two hits and a walk in seven frames.
As for Maeda, the 30-year old right-hander hasn’t had a bad season himself. His numbers don’t quite stack up to Nola’s, but he’s still 7-5 with a respectable 3.12 ERA. Maeda has allowed more walks and more hits than Nola this year but has been nearly as good at limiting homers—allowing just six this year himself—and has a better strikeout rate than the Phillies’ righty with 11.2 per nine innings.
As for the series finale, Arrieta’s counterpart in Los Angeles hasn’t been announced, but the team is expected to go with a six-man rotation out of the break, leaving Walker Buehler as the likely option. If, however, they opt to keep it to a five-man rotation, it would be Rich Hill’s turn.
Buehler has pitched better this year than Hill who is 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA and who is averaging just five innings a start.
The rookie right-hander, however, is a former top prospect who is 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.081 WHIP. Right before the break, Buehler tossed five solid innings against the Angels, allowing two runs in a game the Dodgers would eventually win. That was a nice performance after a rough outing in late June out of the pen and some missed time due to injury. Save for his bad performance out of the pen, he’s pitched to a 2.72 ERA.
As for Arrieta, the righty was brought in to stabilize the rotation and he’s certainly helped. He’s pitched to a 3.47 ERA and is 7-6 with a 1.270 WHIP. The WHIP is a bit high and his strikeout rate is a bit low leaving him with a 4.08 FIP, but he’s getting the job done and pitched much better than any other starter that wasn’t signed into Spring Training.
The 32-year old had a bad start in his first one out of the break, allowing five runs in 3.1 innings against the Padres, but before that had allowed three runs or fewer in five straight starts going into the break. We’ll see how he bounces back on Wednesday.
Live Betting
On the mound we have some solid pitching matchups on tap for this series and the bullpens are reasonably balanced with similar pen ERAs this year.
Los Angeles has one of the game’s best closers in Kenley Jansen and while Scott Alexander is throwing better and Erik Goeddel has been a pleasant surprise, the team needs some set up help. Meanwhile, Seranthony Dominguez has taken over the closer’s role in Philly after Hector Neris’ struggles. He’s got good stuff, but not nearly the experience. We’ll see how his arm holds up as the season progresses. Of course, the same can be said for Victor Arano and Edubray Ramos who have been to electric arms in support of Dominguez. A healthy Pat Neshek adds depth, but truth of the matter is, both teams remain susceptible in the middle innings.
With the pitching matching these teams up closely, the offense is one area that may provide some differentiation.
The Dodgers have scored nearly 40 more runs with a .753 team OPS compared to a .711 mark for the Phillies. Los Angeles has a superior average average, OBP and slugging percentage. The power is, perhaps, the biggest difference and the gap got bigger with L.A. adding Manny Machado.
Machado’s looked good in his first series with the Dodgers and brings a .961 OPS along with 24 homers and 65 RBIs to an already deep roster.
With Manny batting in the No.2 hole, it allows Dave Roberts to move guys around for the best possible platoon matchups. Enrique Hernandez can be less exposed against right-handers while the same can be said for Logan Forsythe who hasn’t delivered as the primary second baseman. Now, Chris Taylor or Max Muncy can slide over to that position.
With Manny and the versatility of the whole team, there’s not many holes in the L.A. lineup like the Phillies have in right-field, shortstop and behind the dish. Meanwhile, the Dodgers also have more elite level bats. The Phillies’ best hitter this year has been Rhys Hoskins with a 118 OPS+. Others like Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera have a OPS+ over 100, too; but with Machado, the Dodgers have four players whose OPS+ tops that of Hoskins.
MLB Pick
Even with how well Eflin has pitched, the Dodgers have an All-Star on the mound on Monday and have the pitching advantage in the series opener. Meanwhile, even with how well Maeda has pitched this year, the edge on Tuesday goes to Nola and the Phillies.
Based purely on pitching matchups, that should leave us with a series split heading into Wednesday, giving up a rubber match on the mid-week, getaway day.
Given both teams have some dominant bullpen arms—even as they search for more before the deadline—the key difference in these teams in this series may be the offense where the Dodgers have the advantage statistically even before Machado joined the lineup.
In the end, look for the Dodgers to sneak out two wins on the road as they come into Philly hot, continuing their streak at the end of the first half through the first series after the break.
Count on the Dodgers to out hit the Phillies and get to Eflin and Arrieta enough to win the first and last game of the series while Nola does his thing to quiet the offense in the middle.
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