The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will meet in the second game of a three-game international series held in Monterrey, Mexico. While the Dodgers were a World Series team last year, this showcase of Major League Baseball in Mexico may not quite be what it was supposed to be given the struggles of Los Angeles in both the box score and the injury list. The loss of Corey Seager still weighs on this team, but they may also still feel the loss of Rich Hill whose turn comes up again in this game. The Padres send Bryan Mitchell to the bump in this series middle game.
First pitch for the game between the Dodgers and Padres is scheduled for Saturday, May 5, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Estadio de Beisbol Monterrey. The matchup will be shown on Fox Sports 1.
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Odds Analysis
Going into Thursday, the Dodgers were 3-7 in their last 10 games and four games under-.500, sitting eight games back in the NL West.
Los Angeles had bigger issues than a poor start to the season, too. With Justin Turner not close to returning to the order, the team has now also lost Corey Seager who joins Yasiel Puig and Logan Forsythe on the shelf.
Given the injuries, Los Angeles is batting Matt Kemp in the three-hole, Austin Barnes hit fifth on Thursday and hit his first homer of the year. Save for Cody Bellinger, there really isn’t any other big threats left in the order.
Of course, the Padres aren’t exactly a powerhouse offense either. San Diego ranks amongst the bottom third of teams in runs scored. Christian Villanueva is a great story while Eric Hosmer is putting up numbers with a .303/.402/.505 slash line. Two players is hardly enough, something the Dodgers are discovering now, too.
Probable Pitchers
Hill was supposed to come off the DL to start on Monday against the Diamondbacks and the start was instead given to Ross Stripling. Now, Hill’s spot comes up again on Saturday, will he make the start? He had finger issues a couple years ago that lingered so hopefully this isn’t the same situation.
Hill’s pitched an average of five innings in his three starts before his DL stint and has allowed 10 runs in 15 innings. If he does make the start, L.A. cannot expect more than five mediocre innings from him. If not, the start could go to Stripling again or to Walker Buehler.
Buehler, even at 23-years old, is the best option. He’s looked good in his first two big league starts. Dave Roberts has protected him so far, allowing him to throw only 10 innings in two starts. In that time, he’s struck out 11. In the minors this year, he’s pitched just as well in the difficult PCL.
The top prospect in the Dodgers’ system and one of the best in baseball, Buehler has electric stuff that already plays at the big-league level.
For the Padres, Mitchell represents one of many upside arms. He’s not as young as Buehler, but was a prime offseason target for A.J. Preller. To this point, Mitchell has struggled.
The former Yankee is getting his first extended look as a starter in the Major Leagues and he’s had trouble locating the ball. He’s leading the NL in walks, giving up 23 free passes so the Dodgers’ hitters can be extra patient, looking for their pitch.
That’s especially true since he’s not striking out many batters. He’s had just 14 strikeouts in 29.2 innings.
While the high walk rate is the biggest problem, Mitchell is not forcing weak contact when he’s putting the ball in the zone. With 33 hits and 23 walks, he’s got a 1.888 WHIP and 6.39 FIP showing that, if anything, he’s been lucky to have an ERA of 6.07. Simply put, he needs to pitch better. Right now, he’s 0-3 and for good reason.
Live Betting
Kenley Jansen’s rough start to the season only served to worsen an already bad situation in the City of Angels. He’s accumulated a negative WAR so far.
After starting to get back on track, Jansen has now allowed a run in back-to-back games. Getting to Jansen hasn’t been much better. Josh Fields is looking good, but the team sorely misses Brandon Morrow in the eighth.
Regardless of who starts this game, the Dodgers will lean heavily on the bullpen which is an issue.
For the Padres, the bullpen is a bit more certain than it is in Los Angeles right now. Adam Cimber, Craig Stammen and Jordan Lyle are throwing reasonably well. Phil Maton and Kirby Yates are strong set up options and, of course, Brad Hand is now locked in as the team closer for the foreseeable future.
If San Diego can get to the pen with the lead, they have a legitimate shot to win the game, but with little to no offense and some serious issues in the rotation, that’s proven to be a difficult thing to do.
MLB Pick
The Padres willingly took back the contract of Chase Headley to essentially by Mitchell from the Yankees, but he’s been a bust thus far in the rotation. He’s allowed nearly two base runners an inning and in an environment where batters are striking out more than ever, he’s struggling to get the swing-and-miss.
The Dodgers aren’t a good baseball team right now and their offense is in shambles, but Mitchell cannot seem to get anyone out consistently. Look for Los Angeles to put together a few good at bats and scratch across some early runs against Mitchell and the Padres.
From there, the Dodgers should be able to hold on with the Padres’ bats as much of a question as L.A.’s right now.
Take the Dodgers to put this one away and capture the win down in Mexico.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 6, Padres 4
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