In what many expected to be a postseason preview series in March now looks like a lopsided affair with the Washington Nationals hosting a disappointing Los Angeles Dodgers team. These two teams were the preseason favorites in the NL and they’ve gone in opposite directions here in the early going. To keep their slim hopes alive, the Dodgers need a good showing in this series and will turn to Alex Wood to try and outduel Stephen Strasburg in the series finale on Sunday.
First pitch for the game between the Dodgers and Nationals is scheduled for Sunday, May 20, 2018, at 1:35 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Dodgers dropped to 10-games under-.500 and have gotten there earlier than they have in any other season that they’ve been known as the Dodgers.
Coming off a World Series appearance and heartbreaking loss in a fun seven-game set, the Dodgers should have been motivated to go that extra distance. Instead, they let their set-up man and No.2 starter walk and are sitting with a worse team while most others improved.
A 7-0 win on Thursday against the lowly Marlins—though they’ve got about the same record as the Dodgers—snapped a six-game losing streak with all those losses coming against Cincinnati and Miami.
The Dodgers are 2-9 in their last 11 games and 9-13 on the road. On the flip side, the Nationals have technically still won four straight. They played six innings against the Yankees on Tuesday, but otherwise haven’t played a game since Sunday due to weather.
Washington will get some rust off in the first couple games of this series and should be back on track by Sunday, but the Nationals have been playing great baseball so the threat that this layoff could hurt the momentum is a concern.
Still, Washington has gone 13-2 in their last 15 finished games. The pitching and hitting have both made great strides forward recently for the Nationals. The bullpen has also started to pitch better.
Sean Doolittle in the ninth has 1.45 ERA and 0.536 WHIP. He’s been lights out while the set-up options have become a bit more stable.
Interestingly, it’s Doolittle with the Kenley Jansen like pitching numbers with Jansen not quite being the same guy this year. Still, he’s the least of the team’s concerns as getting to him has proven to be an issue, too.
Probable Pitchers
Given the Dodgers’ bullpen, it’s imperative that the starters give some length which generally goes against the new-age philosophy of the front office. The Dodgers as an organization have had the fewest innings from its starters—not name Kershaw—the last few years to limit a starter’s exposure to two time through an order.
Alex Wood, however, leads the Dodgers in innings pitched with 51. Still, over nine starts, that’s still only 5.2 innings per start, leaving the bullpen to cover the other 10 outs.
Wood was electric to start last year, winning his first 11 decisions. In 2018, he’s started the year 0-4 doing quite the opposite.
Poor record aside, Wood is still a dependable arm. It’s the bullpen and offense that’s ruined it for him.
The southpaw has allowed no more than one earned run in each of his three May starts and has lowered his ERA to 3.35. He’s also pitching to a 1.059 WHIP and 2.54 FIP. He’s had just one bad start in nine outings and a couple more mediocre ones, generally giving his team a chance to win—a chance they haven’t taken.
While Wood is pitching well without getting the glory, Stephen Strasburg has pitched better and deeper into the games. He’s also 5-3 in his nine starts.
With a 3.28 ERA and 1.028 WHIP, Strasburg’s numbers beat Wood by a bit, but the biggest difference is the 9.2 extra innings. He’s averaging a little over an inning more per start, leaving the Washington bullpen a bit less exposed.
When Strasburg faced the Dodgers in April, the 29-year old righty struck out 10 in seven innings, allowing only two runs, but still took the loss thanks in part to a pair of homers. Earlier this year, Strasburg struggled some with the longball, but hasn’t allowed a homer in either of his last two starts.
Live Betting
Combined the current Dodgers are hitting .195 with a .605 OPS against Strasburg in 128 combined at bats. The only ones with any favorable numbers against Strasburg are Yasmani Grandal, who has a couple hits in seven at bats; Matt Kemp, who has a .296 average in 27 at bats along with three doubles and a homer, but he’s also struck out 11 times; and Justin Turner, who is 3-for-5 against him with a pair of homers.
Turner didn’t get a chance to face Strasburg when he took the loss against the Dodgers last month. He’s been on the DL, but L.A. fans are hoping his return will spark an offense that’s hitting .238 with a .705 collective OPS.
Much like the historic numbers against Strasburg, there are only a handful of Dodger players doing much of anything with the bat. Grandal and Cody Bellinger are the major threats and Matt Kemp, who the Dodgers nearly dropped this offseason, has done his part. The rest of the team is producing at or below league average levels.
Washington has had some issues putting runs on the board at times this year, too. Bryce Harper was for a time the lone legitimate threat. The lack of pitches to hit have worn on him as he’s hitting just .232, but does have a .396 OBP and 13 homers to go along with 30 RBIs. Perhaps the extended break helps recharge him.
The return of Anthony Rendon has helped give him some support in the lineup. The hot bat of Matt Adams also coincides with the Nationals’ recent run of success. Having some protection for Harper goes a long way.
MLB Pick
This will be a tough matchup for the Dodgers. The Nationals are playing good baseball right now and Strasburg is starting to hit his stride. He’s won three straight games and looked good against the Dodgers in April. Wood’s a good pitcher, but not in the same class as Strasburg.
Wood held the Nationals two a couple runs in six frames in April, but the Nationals are swinging better right now. Look for them to scratch across a few runs against Wood while Strasburg holds down a struggling Dodger offense.
The Nationals’ bullpen has been a bit better with Dave Martinez having a few good late game options to close things out.
MLB Odds: Nationals 5, Dodgers 3
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