The only thing standing in the way of the Los Angeles Dodgers and a return to the World Series is a red-hot Milwaukee Brewers team. The two will collide in a seven-game National League Championship Series beginning on Friday night. They’re the last two teams standing in the senior circuit. Who will come out victorious? The Brewers boast home field advantage in the series, but the Dodgers are the favorites. Can Milwaukee topple the perennial playoff team in the Dodgers or will L.A. get another crack at their first World Series title since 1988?
The NLCS between the Dodgers and Brewers opens on Friday, October 12, 2018 at Miller Park. The Brewers will host the first two games along with Game 6 and Game 7, if needed, with the other games at Dodger Stadium. Each game of this series will be broadcast either on FOX or FS1.
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Odds Analysis
The Dodgers and Brewers met seven times in the regular season with L.A. winning four of the seven contests. More notably, they outscored the Brewers by 23 runs in those seven games.
Much of that run differential can be traced back to a 21-5 game in early August when the Brewers were struggling. This team has now won 11-straight games counting the end of the regular season, their Game 163 win over the Cubs, and their sweep of the Rockies. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have won seven of their last eight, the lone exception being the Game 3 loss against the Braves.
The Dodgers are favored in this game and they have the experience. They made it to the World Series last year and know what it takes. While the Brewers are generally young and green to the postseason experience, they do have guys like Mike Moustakas who have been there and can help bring a level of experience to the room.
Starting Pitching Exploration
If the Dodgers are going to win this series, the rotation will be the biggest reason. The starting pitching depth is so great in L.A., they’ pushed three quality starters to the bullpen, including one that was an All-Star in July.
Los Angeles still has one of the game’s best pitchers in Clayton Kershaw. Injuries have tarnished the shine for the superstar a bit, but he still ended the year throwing a 2.73 ERA over 26 starts. He’s the ace of the staff and pitched like it in Game 2 of the NLDS, overcoming some postseason woes that’ve plagued him in his career. He tossed eight scoreless in that game against the Braves.
In Game 1, the Dodgers got another scoreless performance, this one by Hyun-Jin Ryu. Quietly, the southpaw posted a 1.97 ERA in 15 games for the Dodgers in the regular season. He’s pitched brilliantly all year and then delivered seven scoreless on the postseason stage. In four postseason starts, he’s not allowed just five runs in 23 innings of work. In his last three postseason starts, he’s allowed one run in 20 innings.
Filling out the Dodgers’ postseason rotation are Walker Buehler and Rich Hill. Buehler was great in Game 163, but struggled against the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS, the only game they lost. Still, the rookie right hander has phenomenal stuff and a presence on the mound far beyond his years.
As for Hill, he’s more of a five-and-dive arm at this point. He’s reliable and will give quality innings, but look for Dave Roberts to limit him to a couple times through the order.
Milwaukee’s rotation is headed by Jhoulys Chacin who pitched well in Game 163 and followed it up with five scoreless on short rest in the NLDS. He’s throwing very well right now and ended the season with 15 wins and a 3.50 ERA. He’s a good option, but he’s probably the only one that can be counted on for five or more innings.
Wade Miley and Brandon Woodruff pitched the other two NLDS games. Miley will face the Dodgers and Gio Gonzalez figures to get a start, too, considering L.A. is better against righties than lefties, but two times through the order is probably the cap for both. The bullpen is the strength of this team and they’re going to win or lose with their strength.
That said, while the Brewers don’t figure to get much length from their rotation, they got quality in the NLDS as the group pitched 12.1 innings without allowing a single run. If they can get four good innings a game in the NLCS, that’s really all they need.
Offensive Comparison
These are two potent, but different, offenses. The Dodgers led the NL in runs scored and belted a league leading 235 regular season jacks, second only to the Yankees in the Majors. The Brewers have some power, too. They hit 218 bombs, but they also had fewer doubles and triples. They produced a lower OBP and lower slugging percentage, though they did have a better batting average. Those trends have held up so far this postseason as well.
Los Angeles can be prone to the strikeout and the Brewers have a very good bullpen with plenty of swing and miss stuff. That could be an Achilles Heel for an otherwise stout Dodger offense.
Manny Machado and Max Muncy give the Dodgers a pair of 30 homer bats, combining for 72 dingers. Beyond that, the team has six others with at least 21 homers. They hit eight homers in four games in the NLDS against the Braves.
The team is 10 deep with players posting a 110 OPS+ and that doesn’t even count David Freese who went 15-for-39 down the stretch with five extra base hits after coming over from the Pirates. Not bad for a bat off the bench.
The offense is deep and can rake up runs in a hurry as long as they’re making contact.
As for the Brewers, the offense hasn’t been that great in October despite a 4-0 record in the month. They beat the Cubs in Game 163 by scoring three and scored 13 in three games against the Rockies. The pitching is what really stands out.
Still, this offense is good. They’ve got power to match up with the Dodgers and they have a better contact rate despite a bit less patience.
They need Lorenzo Cain and Jesus Aguilar to heat up. Neither did much in the NLDS, but both had monster years and are big offensive threats.
Christian Yelich keeps carrying this team on his shoulders as he did down the stretch and shows no signs of slowing down. He’s seemingly impossible to get out with a .326/.406/.598 slash line. He has power and speed with 36 homers, 110 RBIs, 22 steals and 118 runs scored. He helps everything go.
Meanwhile, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas are swinging well, too. From there, Eric Thames, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and more offer depth and versatility. The names aren’t quite as known in Milwaukee compared to the Dodgers and the numbers aren’t quite as staggering, but this team can hit, too.
Bullpen Breakdown
This is where the Brewers take center stage. Milwaukee doesn’t have the starting pitching to match up with the likes of Kershaw, Buehler or even Ryu, but they have a deep bullpen loaded with swing and miss stuff and ground ball specialists.
While the Dodgers’ pen centers on Kenley Jansen, the Brewers have a number of late-inning arms in Josh Hader, Jeremey Jeffress, Joakim Soria, Corey Knebel, and Xavier Ceneno. Hader, Jeffress and Knebel each had at least a dozen saves for the Brewers in the regular season giving Craig Counsell plenty of flexibility to use a closer early in the game if a big moment arises.
The bullpen hit a bump in the road early in the second half of the season, but straightened out down the stretch. Along with the big arms already mentioned, the team also has some good specialist like Dan Jennings and electric young arms such as Corbin Burnes.
In the NLDS against the Rockies, the pen was asked to give 15.1 innings in three games, pitching more innings than the rotation. It came through. Jeffress struggled a bit, giving up a pair of runs and six hits, but the rest of the pen allowed just two hits. The unit struck out 22 batters.
This is a dominant group and having swept Colorado, the unit will be well rested. The only question is: is the break too long?
For the Dodgers, the pen is focused on Jansen. Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling were added to the relief corps late in the year and provide good stuff, but Jansen is still the centerpieces. The closer was off early in the year and the Dodgers struggled. He missed a stretch of games in the second half with an irregular heartbeat and the team struggled then, too.
As a whole the unit sporting a solid ERA, but there are still questions getting to Jansen. The stuff is there for the likes of Wood, Maeda and Stripling, but can they be as good in late game jams when they’re more accustom to starting games?
MLB Pick
Both teams are strong offensively with deep benches and moving parts for Dave Roberts and Craig Counsell to mix and match. The pitching is also evenly matched though much different. While the Dodgers’ rotation carries more weight, the Brewers’ bullpen is lethal.
Look for each game to be a battle. This season has been a coming out part of sorts for Yelich and this series could certainly add to the story. Cain and Aguilar should break out of their NLDS rut, too, and help the jumpstart the offense.
The bullpen is delivering and so is the rotation. If that continues, this team will be very hard to beat. In their series with Colorado, the only pitcher to allow anything was their best reliever. Jeffress will be fine and the rest of the pitching staff is already fine.
The Dodgers are a great team. They have a great offense and a deep rotation, but in the end, look for the Brewers to stay hot and ride their elite bullpen all the way to the Fall Classic, winning this series against the reigning NL champs in six.
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