Marcell Ozuna gets his first chance to stick it to his former team on Tuesday when Ozuna and the St. Louis Cardinals host the Miami Marlins in the first of three. The Marlins, in rebuilding mode after the sale of the franchise, have really struggled lately, losing six in a row and nine of their last ten. They’ll send Jose Urena to the mound to try and be the stopper, but will have to contend with a newly healthy Carlos Martinez and playoff contending Cardinals team.
First pitch for the game between the Marlins and Cardinals is scheduled for Tuesday, June 5, 2018, at 8:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The matchup will be shown on Fox Sports 1.
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Odds Analysis
Six straight losses and nine losses in their last 10 games, the Marlins are now 19-games under-.500 and playing how most of the baseball world expected after their offseason fire sale.
The team has no outfield and cannot pitching, especially out of the bullpen. With the starting pitching struggling, they have no relief behind them.
The Marlins’ bullpen has the worst ERA in the National League at 5.72. They’re 20-38 as a unit, allowing the opposition to bat .274 against them when the average NL pen has a .239 average against.
The Marlins essentially have one reliable bullpen arm: Kyle Barraclough. The right-hander was recently promoted to closer given the 23 runs allowed by Brad Ziegler in his 24 innings of work. Barraclough has allowed five runs—four earned—in 25.1 innings. He had walked 15, but has allowed just nine hits, leaving him with a 0.947 WHIP.
Free passes are an issue for Barraclough, but that issues seems minimal compared to the rest of the pen. While the righty could close out the game, it seems unlikely the Fish will be able to get to him with the lead.
On the other side, the Cardinals don’t exactly have an elite bullpen either. Greg Holland has been a bust and is back on the DL. Dominic Leone and Luke Gregerson, the other big-name offseason additions, are on the shelf, too.
Fortunately, the Cardinals have gotten a lot from Bud Norris and Jordan Hicks. Both are overworked and it’s hard to say how long they’ll continue to pitch well, but for now, these two give Mike Matheny twice the number of options as Don Mattingly.
Norris has the solid peripheral numbers to back up his 3.08 ERA. Hicks is a bit more of a mystery. He’s walking too many and not striking out enough despite the game’s fastest fastball. Still, he’s keeping the ball in the park and getting outs anyway.
Probable Pitchers
The Cardinals will be happy to get back their ace in right-hander Carlos Martinez on Tuesday. Martinez is slated to come off the shelf along with Yadier Molina, giving the Cardinals a great battery for the game.
Martinez has been out about a month with a lat strain and will look to pick things up where he left off. Before the injury, Martinez had made eight starts, pitching to a 3-2 record and 1.62 ERA.
The 26-year old has already had three full seasons as a starter with great results, but was on pace for a career year with those numbers.
Martinez will be hard pressed to continue pitching like he has this season, but even the Martinez from the last few years is a top-of-the-rotation arm. He’s 42-27 in those three seasons before this with a 3.24 combined ERA.
The righty is undoubtedly going to be a little rusty and we’ll see how that plays out. We’ll also see if he can do a bit better in terms of walks. While the overall numbers were better this year before the injury, Martinez was walking more batters than normal. He was—and still is—leading the league in hit batters.
Over his career, Martinez has faced the Marlins on just four occasions with a 2-1 record but a 5.04 ERA. He’s allowed three homers and 15 runs in 25 innings against the Fish.
Getting the task to try and outpitch Martinez will be the Marlins’ Jose Urena.
Urena pitched well in 2017, earning the Opening Day nod in 2018, but this season hasn’t been nearly as good. He comes into the game 0-7 with a 4.41 ERA. His FIP, however, is 3.99 and his 1.168 WHIP shows he’s limited base runners, he’s just allowed too many of them to score.
Urena has been a below replacement level pitcher in his 12 starts, but his last start was a good one. He held the Padres to one run on three hits over six innings. He was his fifth quality start of the season.
The righty will try and build on that outing, but to this point, he’s been unable to find any momentum. He’s also not had success in his career against the Cardinals. He’s allowed 13 runs in 14.1 innings spread over three starts.
Live Betting
The return of Molina is big for the pitching staff, but also helps the Cardinals lineup. Without him, Francisco Pena and Carson Kelly have had most of the playing time. Kelly is a big prospect, but is 2-for-25 while Pena’s a journeyman, backup catcher. Now, the team has a legitimate threat with a bat at that position.
The Cardinals have had some poor play from reliable big-leaguers this season. Dexter Fowler is hitting .179. Osuna—who will be extra motivated in this series—has .679 OPS and four homers. The names go on.
Fortunately, for St. Louis, the Cardinals have had several surprise performers. Harrison Bader is hitting .281 with a .830 OPS. Yario Munoz has been great in his chances, too. The same can be said for Jose Martinez who has played in the most games for the team despite coming out of Spring Training without a clear path for consistent playing time.
Between Martinez, Bader, Molina and Munoz, the team has pieced together a respectable offense. Tommy Pham has been a huge part of that. He’s the team leader in homers with nine.
Matt Carpenter is finally starting to hit and Fowler and Ozuna may be, too, given the recent trends.
For the Marlins, the offense is hindered by no bench and no depth, two things that the Cardinals have relied on for production. Miami is also without a quality option in the outfield. Derek Dietrich is swinging the bat, but cannot defend while Lewis Brinson and Cameron Maybin have been awful at the dish.
J.T. Realmuto is still one of the best hitting catchers in the game and Justin Bour is underrated as first. Those two form a good middle-of-the order, but the rest of the supporting cast is average at best. Starlin Castro is a serviceable second baseman on a good team, but he’s the third best player on this squad while Miguel Rojas and Brian Anderson should be role players, but are—instead—leading the team in games played.
MLB Pick
The Marlins don’t have a bullpen outside of one arm, are at a significant disadvantage based on the starting pitching and have no quality outfielders on the roster. Those are big hurdles to overcome. To have a chance, the Marlins need Martinez to be rusty coming off the DL, miss on several pitches and have a bad night. Don’t count on that happening.
The tandem of Martinez and Molina should be able to get through six innings whether Martinez has his best stuff immediately coming off the DL or not. While Urena may be turning the corner for the Marlins and is due for a win, don’t look for him to get it here.
Even if Urena can keep the game close, the Marlins need more than Barraclough to get through the game.
Look for the Cardinals to get a few against Urena and add on against the bullpen while the Marlins pick up another loss.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 7, Marlins 3
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