It’s a possible Wild Card game preview on Saturday as the Atlanta Braves play host to the Milwaukee Brewers in the second game of a crucial three-game weekend series. These two teams currently sit in a Wild Card spot, but each have bigger aspirations with their sights set on a division crown. Wherever they end up, the push for October baseball is one and we have an interesting pitching matchup lined up with Wade Miley going for the Brew Crew and Julio Teheran on the bump for the Braves.
First pitch of the game between the Brewers and Braves is scheduled for Saturday, August 11, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at SunTrust Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
The Brewers have been a streaky team this year and their struggles going into the All-Star break cost them the top spot in the NL Central. They’ve been trying to reclaim it since.
After snapping a six-game losing streak, the Brew Crew are now 11-7 in their last 18 games and have closed the gap in the division to 1.5-games. Milwaukee isn’t playing their best baseball, but they’re playing well enough to keep pace with Chicago.
One player who has struggled since joining Milwaukee is Jonathan Schoop. The former Oriole second baseman was red hot in July, but has been ice cold here in August going just 3-for-26 with 12 strikeouts and no extra base hits.
Fortunately for the Brewers, Mike Moustakas has been a bit better though with a 98 OPS+, he hasn’t exactly been lighting it up. Still, he’s another solid bat in the order to help fight against the occasional Milwaukee power outage that has led to them being shutout more than most competitive teams.
In the end, the Brewer offense still mostly boils down to the top of the order with Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain the only consistent hitters on the team. Travis Shaw is a good threat though his playing time has been impacted by Moustakas and Schoop. And while Jesus Aguilar is still one of the best stories of the season, the powerful first baseman is batting .172 since the All-Star break though he does have four homers and 12 RBIs.
While the Brewers are trying to catch the Cubs, the Braves are looking to catch the Phillies. They’ve outhit Philly this year and will look to their bats to help them against the Brewers on Saturday.
Charlie Culberson is raking in the second half with four home runs and a .375 average. Brian Snitker is finding ways to get his bat in the order. Ender Inciarte has also heated up and is batting .322 since the break as he’s feeling pressure given the performance of Culberson and the acquisition of Duvall to eat into his at-bats against lefties.
The Braves’ lineup is stacked. Freddie Freeman is as consistent a hitter as there is in the game and the rest of the lineup is built around him. Nick Markakis continues to hit in his career season, Ronald Acuna Jr. continues to show he’s more than ready for The Show and the same can be said for Johan Camargo who gets for less fanfare, but has a 114 OPS+ at third. One through eight, the Braves have a quality Major League bat in the order.
Probable Pitchers
In this game, the pitching matchup will feature 31-year old southpaw Wade Miley for the Brewers and the surprisingly still on 27-year old Julio Teheran.
Miley has bounced around the last few seasons, but has found a home in Milwaukee. The Brewers have managed to piece together a rotation from a collection of supposed back-of-the-rotation arms, including Miley. Still, the veteran southpaw comes into play having allowed three earned runs or fewer in all seven starts with the Brew Crew.
The last time Miley was pitching on the road, he tossed his best start of the year, going seven scoreless against a tough Dodgers’ lineup.
While Miley’s only made his seven starts due to injury, the numbers are impressive. He’s 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 34.1 innings. He’s always been someone who struggles with walks and that’s driven up his WHIP and his FIP which sits at 3.91. Still, he’s a National League pitcher and is forcing weak contact, keeping the ball on the ground more and getting big double plays when needed.
Miley’s not a big strikeout pitcher and that combination is concerning, but he’s only allowed one homer all year and is throwing the ball well right now. It’s hard to say if his success will continue to the end of the year, but for now, things are looking good.
As for Teheran, things haven’t been quite as good lately. The righty has been passed by a couple arms in the rotation and is no longer the team ace, but he’s still a serviceable mid-rotation arm.
The right-hander has struggled with consistency as his command of the slider has given him fits at times. Over his last 10 starts, his ERA is over five for that reason. His walk rate has also jumped recently.
On the season, Teheran has a much larger sample size than Miley. His results aren’t great, but he keeps the Braves in the game, usually. He’s 8-7 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.276 WHIP. More alarming, however, is his 5.32 FIP driven by a 61 walks and 22 home runs allowed in 120.2 innings.
Teheran had issues with SunTrust Park last year, but has a better ERA at home than on the road this year, however, his last home start was far from great, allowing three runs in five innings to the Mets. He’s allowed at 13 runs over 15 innings combined in his last three starts regardless of venue.
Live Betting
Miley is pitching better than Teheran right now and he also has the better bullpen behind him. Miley doesn’t need to go more than five innings for the Brewers to feel good about their chances.
Behind the southpaw, Milwaukee has a bullpen with a 3.65 ERA compared to 4.11 for the Braves.
The Brewers’ bullpen gets a lot of praise, but based on ERA, it only ranks No.10 in baseball. Some of the inflated numbers come from fringe guys, but the pen’s ERA has been climbing of late as the Brewers try to balance the heavy workload of the relief arms.
Even so, if the team gets five or six solid from Miley, they’ve got Corey Knebel to close it out and a plethora of set up options including Jeremy Jeffress, Dan Jennings, Jacob Barnes, Josh Hader and Joakim Soria to bridge the gap.
The Braves have some interesting young arms in their bullpen, too, but they miss Arodys Vizcaino and Shane Carle who are on the DL. Without Vizcaino, A.J. Minter has been getting most of the save chances. He’s a quality arm while Dan Winkler is a serviceable set up man. The Braves also beefed up the pen at the deadline added Jonny Venters and Brad Brach. Those are two under-the-radar moves as Venters had only pitched 14 innings for the Rays, but is finally back to being a good big league reliever after six years. As for Brach, he was struggling in Baltimore, but a change of scenery seems to have done him some good.
MLB Pick
At the beginning of the year a pitching matchup between Teheran and Miley would have heavily favored the former. While Teheran has yet to fully put things together and maintained control, he’s had some very strong years and has the better stuff. But, right now, Miley is throwing the ball better.
These are two motivated teams, both looking to reach October. They’ve each got some thump in the bat and the offense to score enough to win, though the Braves do have the more diverse offense while the Brewers are susceptible to the occasional shutout. Don’t look for one on Saturday, however.
Look for the Brewers to get a few runs off Teheran, taking advantage of some walks and driving one or two out of the park. Meanwhile, count on Miley to continue pitching well and turn the ball over to the deep Brewer’s bullpen with the lead after six innings. From there, look for the Brew Crew to hold out and put away the win.
MLB Odds: Brewers 6, Braves 5
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