The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs will wrap up a weekend series on Sunday night on ESPN. Both teams head into the series playing some quality baseball, having climbed into the top two spots in the NL Central. The Brew Crew edged out the Cubs for the division crown last season, but for now, the Cubs seem in control early with the best run differential in the NL. Can the Brewers slow a red-hot Chicago team that’s been nearly unbeatable at home? It’ll be an uphill climb for sure.
First pitch for the game between the Brewers and Cubs is scheduled for Sunday, May 12, 2019, at 7:05 p.m. ET at historic Wrigley Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The first series between these two teams was a good one with the Brewers getting the series win, two games to one, at home. Offense was the game of the game in that series with the two teams combining for 51 runs. Chicago actually outscored Milwaukee despite losing the series, albeit by one run.
On the year, Chicago’s the more offensive diverse team. The Cubs are clicking on all cylinders right now and have the NL’s second most runs scored behind the Dodgers. Meanwhile, they top the charts in team OPS.
Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant have heated up after slow starts and are amongst five starters with an OPS+ of at least 131.
Willson Contreras leads the way on the Cubs with a .310/.435/.640 slash line and nine homers. Rizzo also has nine jacks while Javier Baez leads the team with 11.
Perhaps the most surprising early season performance for the Cubs is Jason Heyward who is finally living up to the contract. He’s batting .286 with six bombs and 18 RBIs while posting a .894 OPS and still playing elite defense. He’s also the team’s leader in steals with four.
This team can make contact, get on base, and slug with anyone and sits ahead of Milwaukee in most offensive categories save for home runs.
The Brewers are a solid offensive team, but their offense is built largely on the home run ball.
Milwaukee tops the NL in homers hit and Christian Yelich is the league leader with 16 though only one has come on the road.
Overall, Yelich has a .356/.462/.797 slash line, but he’s hitting .406 at home and just .296 on the road and has a .766 road OPS, 901-points lower than his line at home.
With such a home/road swing by the team’s best player, it makes sense that the team in general is much better offensively at home.
Probable Pitchers
It’s a battle of Opening Day starts on Sunday with the Cubs turning to veteran southpaw Jon Lester and the Brewers hoping for good things from Jhoulys Chacin.
It hasn’t been a great year so far for Chacin who is 3-3 in his eight starts, but has a 5.03 ERA and 5.98 FIP in his 39.1 innings of work. He’s not even averaging five innings a start.
Despite that, Chacin has gotten a bit better results over his last two games. In that time, he’s thrown 11 innings and has allowed just two runs and five hits. Despite that, he has posed a poor strikeout to walk ratio in those innings, walking five to just four strikeouts. On the season, his K:BB ratio is just 1.45 while his home run rate has more than doubled over last year.
The early returns here in 2019 aren’t great for Chacin, but he did pitch to a 15-8 record and 3.50 ERA last year. Included in those numbers was an excellent start against the Cubs in the final game of the regular season, clinching the division for the Brew Crew. In that game, he held the Cubbies to a single run in 5.2 innings of work.
Overall, Chacin has always fared well against Chicago. In 12 games pitched against the Cubs—including 11 starts—he owns a 2.86 ERA.
Similarly, his counterpart on Sunday has owned the Brewers. Lester is 4-3 with a 2.66 ERA in eight starts and 50.2 innings of work against Milwaukee.
In addition to those head-to-head numbers, Lester also comes into play with a 2-1 record and 1.41 ERA in six starts. He missed some time with injury, but since coming back has pitched in three games, totaling 18 innings. In that time, he’s notched 19 strikeouts while giving up just a single earned run and 13 hits in 18 innings. He’s also walked just one.
Lester has the superior command and consistency compared to Chacin. He allows fewer walks, fewer long balls and is a much more predictable hurler.
Live Betting
The best relief arm in this series is in the Milwaukee’s bullpen. Josh Hader is as dominant as they come, but he’s been used largely in the closer’s role and may not factor in if the Brewers don’t have the lead.
Still, he’s a major threat and has already struck out 41 batters in just 18.1 innings of work. That’s well more than two an inning. He’s allowed just eight hits and six walks for a 0.764 WHIP though he has allowed four home runs. On the rare occasion someone actually gets a hit, it goes out of the yard quite often.
Outside of Hader and Jeremy Jeffress who has looked good in his 8.2 innings this year, the Brewers’ pen hasn’t been nearly as good as last year. In fact, the Brewers and Cubs have nearly an identical bullpen ERA.
For the Brewers’ its top heavy on Hader and to a lesser extend Junior Guerra and Jeremy Jeffress, but the middle innings are a bit vulnerable.
For the Cubs, they’ve got some good arms despite injuries to Brandon Morrow and Pedro Strop. Brandon Kintzler has allowed only one run, five hits and two walks in his last 11 appearances. Steve Cishek and Brad Brach are two more with closer experience and while Brach has walked way too many batters, he’s worked out of it so far.
MLB Pick
Lester has been throwing the ball well since coming off the IL and should be able to navigate a Brewer’s lineup overly dependent on the long ball, particularly one that doesn’t do nearly as well on the road compared to at home.
After that, the Cubs pen is depleted, but there’s enough there to close out the last few innings and give Chicago the win at home on national television.
On the other side, look for Chacin to struggle with his command has he has the last few games. He’s not as likely to navigate the walks against a Cubs offense that’s clicking on all cylinders right now.
Count on the Cubs to grab a few early runs and then maintain the lead, coasting to a win to close out this three game weekend set.
Take the Cubbies at home on the North Side at BookMaker.eu.
MLB Odds: Cubs 6, Brewers 4
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