Finally we have an interleague matchup that has some intrigue with a pair of division leaders squaring off. The Milwaukee Brewers are actually tied for the NL Central lead with Chicago after a profitable weekend that saw them sweep the Pittsburgh Pirates giving them four straight wins overall entering the week. Meanwhile, the Houston Astros have a comfortable bulge in the AL West and send ace Justin Verlander to the bump in search of his 10th win of the season. He’ll be opposed by Brandon Woodruff, who is an impressive 8-1 on the year, in the finale of a brief two-game set that will air on ESPN.
This MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Houston Astros will be held at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas, at 8:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, June 12, 2019. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Following their sweep of the Pirates, the Brewers improved to nine games over .500 at home. But get them on the road and they are just an average bunch, though they have been more profitable away from home lately. They are 8-4 in their last 12 games on the road and they’ve won each of Brandon Woodruff’s last three away starts.
The Astros were favored to win the AL West and were near the top of the odds board as World Series champions before the season began. They haven’t disappointed. Running away with the division the only thing that could bring them down is complacency. We aren’t going to see that happen in this series with another division winner from last season invading Minute Maid Park. And the Astros have taken care of business in their yard with an AL best 24-9 record.
Probable Pitchers
After a couple of brief stints with the big league club the previous two seasons, Brandon Woodruff ( 8-1, 3.87 ERA ) has become a mainstay in the rotation leading the team in wins. He won his seventh straight decision with a quality start against Pittsburgh in his last outing matching a career-high with 10 strikeouts in the 10-4 victory.
A power pitcher with a fastball in the 96-98 MPH range, Woodruff tried to get too fancy two starts ago and had his worst outing of the year allowing 10 hits and six earned in 4.0 innings. He used the heater more extensively last time out and gave up just four hits and three runs. “He’s confident in what he’s doing. It’s mainly because of the fastball. He’s got hitters looking for it and throwing it by them,” manager Craig Counsell said.
Justin Verlander ( 9-2, 2.31 ERA ) has dominated the AL for 14 seasons and he’s showing no signs of slowing down. On top of leading the AL in wins, he’s also tossed a league-best 93.2 innings and has a miniscule 0.74 WHIP. He was denied his 10th win of the year last time out when the bullpen gave up a late lead. He lasted 6.1 innings giving up five hits and three earned. It was just the fifth time in his 14 starts he allowed more than one earned run.
One look at Verlander’s interleague numbers and it’s safe to say he’d be just as overpowering in the senior circuit. Verlander is 34-7 with a 2.73 ERA in 48 career interleague starts, including a 2-0 record with a 1.08 ERA in two outings against Milwaukee. This will be his first interleague start of the season.
Live Betting
Verlander doesn’t give up a lot of hits. He’s allowed just 50 over 93.2 innings leading to his MLB-best 0.74 WHIP. But he does surrender home runs with 28 percent of hits allowed leaving the yard. And the Brewers are one of the best hitting the long ball, so if Milwaukee is going to get to Houston’s ace, exiting the playing field will help. Christian Yelich leads MLB with 24 dingers and is on pace to hit 66. Mike Moustakas has 20 homers and they are two of just five players in MLB with at least 20 on the year. As a team the Brewers have 114 homers, the third-highest total in the entire league.
Free MLB ATS Picks
Good hitting stops good pitching, as the old saying goes. And Verlander is one of the best. The Astros ace is more likely to strikeout a bunch of Brewers rather than give up long balls. He’s whiffed 110 hitters this season and the Brewers have fanned the third-most in the Majors. And Verlander has staying power pitching into the seventh inning in each of his last seven starts.
MLB Pick: Astros 6, Brewers 3
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