The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers will meet up for the third game of a four-game series out in Hollywood on Wednesday, a day after the dust settles from the non-waiver trade deadline. Both teams will feature new players at the hot corner, too, each with the same initials. The Dodgers landed the deadline jackpot of Manny Machado while the Brew Crew are hopeful Mike Moustakas adds a bit of left-handed pop to their order. Which of those two will end up on the winning side on Wednesday? The starting pitching probably has more of an impact on that than the two aforementioned players as Rich Hill and Chase Anderson are scheduled to take the hill.
First pitch of the game between the Brewers and Dodgers is scheduled for Wednesday, August 1, 2018, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The matchup will be televised nationally on MLB Network
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Odds Analysis
The Brewers slid into the All-Star Break losing six in a row and lost their first game—against the Dodgers no less—after the break. Since snapping that seven-game losing streak, however, Milwaukee has gone 6-3 in their last nine games and closed the gap a bit in the NL Central.
Milwaukee is playing better baseball now than when they last met the Dodgers, but they did fall to L.A. at home in two of three games. How will they fare on the road where they’re just barely over-.500?
Since their series against the Brewers, the Dodgers went 5-3 with the pitching the primary storyline in their four game series against the Braves.
The offense, however, is where they made their biggest acquisition of the trade deadline by bringing in Manny Machado.
After playing his first couple games in Dodger blue at short, Machado is now playing third in place of the injured Justin Turner, helping L.A. to make up for his loss without missing a beat. Ten years removed from the first Manny-wood, Machado’s doing well in his new city and has a .302/.400/.442 slash line in his first 10 games.
Even with Turner out, the Dodgers can go eight deep with players boasting an above average OPS+ and that doesn’t even include Enrique Hernandez who is one of the better hitters in the league against southpaws and could be a key pinch hitter off the bench against a guy like Hader.
The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in the NL, scoring the second most runs and putting up a .753 team OPS. The Brewers have scored their share of runs, too, but their OPS is a bit lower primarily due to a .316 OBP. Milwaukee has Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich as two on base machines at the top of the order, but the rest of the team lacks that on base ability. Jesus Aguilar has a .356 OBP, but he’s been in a funk since the break.
Meanwhile, the Brew Crew’s biggest acquisition—Mike Moustakas—isn’t exactly an OBP machine either. Like Eric Thames, he’s more about the pop.
Perhaps the key to the offense is Travis Shaw. The third baseman pushed to second is a 20 homer bat with a solid OBP. He helps fill an offensive void in the middle infield which leaves just shortstop and catcher as the offensive black holes in the order.
Probable Pitchers
The pitching matchup for this game is an interesting one with the 38-year old southpaw, Rich Hill, on the bump for the Dodgers and righty Chase Anderson lined up for Milwaukee.
Hill’s had an up-and-down seasons tarnished by injury and some early struggles, but he’s healthy now and throwing well. He’s looked good since coming off the DL for the second time. In fact, he’s coming off a scoreless outing against the Braves where he went seven strong, allowing just three hits and striking out eight. For Hill, it’s all about the curveball and it was breaking well in Atlanta.
Over his last two starts, Hill has thrown 13 innings and allowed just one runs on eight hits and five walks. He’s struck out 17 in that span.
Hill has seen his ERA drop considerably since coming off the DL in June and he’s also gone deeper in games. Even so, he’s still only pitched 68.1 innings in 14 games. He’s also only eclipsed 98 pitches in a start once. He generally is finished after 90-some pitches.
Overall on the season, Hill is 4-4 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.302 WHIP. His 4.32 FIP is rather solid, too, though slightly inflated by a 1.4 home run per nine innings ratio. That could be one thing the Brewers’ power bats exploit. The team isn’t one with a great OBP or that’s been really good at manufacturing runs, but they can hit them out.
On the other side of this matchup, Anderson—much like Hill—has been pitching really well lately. The 30-year old hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a game over his last seven starts, pitching to a 1.93 ERA in that time.
On the year, Anderson is 7-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.169 WHIP. The lower hit rate against is a key difference between the starters even though Anderson has fewer strikeouts. He generally induces weaker contact though has struggled at times with the home run as well.
This season, the Brew Crew are 12-9 when Anderson makes a start and that includes a win over the Dodgers on July 21. Anderson, however, didn’t get the start in that game as he only lasted four innings. He allowed two runs on six hits and two walks in those four frames as he battled without his best stuff. Even so, he kept Milwaukee in the game though he did have to use 104 pitches to get that far.
Live Betting
After the acquisition of Joakim Soria, the Brewers’ bullpen now features three closers in Soria, Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress. All three have significant closing experienced. Meanwhile, Josh Hader isn’t on that list—though he did close for a stretch earlier this year. He’s probably the best of all of them.
His offensive twitter history notwithstanding, Hader’s had a terrific rookie campaign and is pitching to a 1.39 ERA in 0.774 WHIP in a variety of different roles. Righties and especially lefties cannot pick up the ball out of his hand, leading to 96 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. He’s sitting down just shy of two batters an inning on strikes. It’s hard for the opposition to score when they cannot even put the bat on the ball.
Along with those four electric arms, the Brewers have also recently called up top pitching prospect Corbin Burnes to help in the pen. He’s been scoreless in his six appearances over 8.2 innings and has allowed just five hits and two walks while striking out 13.
While Kenley Jansen is as good as anyone the Brewers can trot out there in the ninth inning, the pen around him isn’t nearly as deep as the one in Milwaukee.
Pedro Baez is back and Erik Goeddel is throwing well; the later may be this season’s out-of-nowhere find like Brandon Morrow a season ago. Still, the depth of names isn’t as good. If this game comes down to those coming out of the pen in the sixth and seventh inning, the Brewers have a clear edge.
MLB Pick
The Brewers have faltered a bit of late and are starting to see the Cubs take control of their division. For Milwaukee, the starting rotation is some of the issue, but Anderson has been a stabilizer of late and is pitching exceptionally well. Look for that to continue.
Bank on Anderson to go six solid innings for the Brew Crew before turning the ball over to a stacked bullpen that can close the door.
Hill’s been the Dodgers’ weakest link in the rotation this year and—save his last start—hasn’t been reliable to go deep in games, leaving the middle of the Dodgers’ bullpen exposed.
Look for the Brewers’ offense to get a long ball or two off Hill and then add on a bit in the middle innings before eventually winning this game.
One can expect the Dodgers to at least split this series—if not win it—but the Brewers are matched up to get the win on the road in this game.
MLB Odds: Brewers 6, Dodgers 3
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