The third game of the season opening series between the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres will feature a pair of pitchers on the mound needing to make strong impressions. For the Brewers, it’s Brent Suter who is getting a chance as a set part of the rotation after sitting on the Triple-A shuttle last year. For the Padres, its Luis Perdomo who is full of promise, but has yet to really establish himself in his first two big league season.
First pitch for the game between the Brewers and Padres is scheduled Saturday, March 31, 2018, at 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
Coming out of Spring Training, the Brewers and Padres were first and second, respectively, both in Cactus League action and when ranked amongst all NL teams—both in Florida and Arizona.
Milwaukee has won 19 of 30 games this spring, showing its amazing depth whereas the youth of the San Diego roster showed through with the Padres minor leaguers pulling out some wins when given a chance.
Now that the rosters have been pared down to 25-players, these teams cannot feast on mismatches against minor league talent. Can the Padres carry the momentum off a strong Spring into the season? Based on the names on the roster, it would seem Milwaukee has the better chance of continuing the success.
Going back to 2017, the Brew Crew had a much better season, narrowly missing out on a Wild Card spot with an 86-76 record while San Diego finished 71-91, 20-games under-.500.
After a big year last year, the Milwaukee front office went out and added on with the intention of giving the team an even better chance at playing in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Padres are still in rebuilding mode, waiting for the youngster to come up to the Majors. They did add Eric Hosmer to provide a winning mentality, but the talent gap between these teams is still pronounced.
Probable Pitchers
The Brewers had an eventful offseason, but came up short in its pursuit of a big time starting pitching upgrade. In lieu of such an acquisition, the rotation in place will be asked to do even more after the unit outperformed expectations last year.
One of those starters that’ll be leaned on to take a step forward is Brent Suter who will be on the mound on Saturday for the Brew Crew.
Suter was a jack-of-all-trades in 2017, starting 14 big league games, throwing in eight relief outings and taking four trips to Triple-A.
When it was all said and done, the southpaw was 3-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 81.2 big league innings. In parts of two seasons, he’s pitched to a 3.40 ERA and 3.88 FIP over 103.1 innings.
Suter isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, but has proven in his limited big-league time that he can get big league hitters out. He has rather even splits against lefties and righties, too.
Perhaps the biggest issue for Suter last season was length. He was strong the first two times through an order, but struggled the third time around. Suter spent time this offseason—and during the spring—working on strength and endurance in hopes he can go a bit deeper in games. In his first start of the season, however, he’ll undoubtedly have a shorter leash than he will later in the year.
Toeing the rubber for the Padres opposite Suter is Luis Perdomo, the 24-year old right-hander in his third season.
Perdomo is one of the youngsters giving San Diego hope for the future, but has yet to really take off. He showed mild improvement in 2017, dropping his ERA from 5.71 to 4.67, but that still lefty the youngster with an ERA+ of 88, placing him more as a No.5 starter than a mid-rotation arm.
He’ll try and take another step forward in 2018, starting with Saturday’s game. To make much improvement, however, it’ll be command that he needs to improve.
This spring, the command has been an issue, again. He walked eight in 15.2 Cactus League innings though he did strikeout 15. He also allowed three homers. Milwaukee’s new look offense features a couple extra patient hitters who can wait out their pitch from Perdomo.
Live Betting
Suter pitched better than Perdomo last year, but both starters enter the year with plenty to prove and in that regard, these teams are somewhat evenly matched in this game. Offensively and in the bullpen, the edge is decidedly in the Brewers’ corner.
Milwaukee was a middle of the road offense last year, but added Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich to the mix. Meanwhile, the Padres were last in baseball in runs scored. They added Eric Hosmer to help improve, but they have a long way to go to get to mediocre.
The San Diego offense was a bit better in the second half of the year. Manuel Margot, Jose Pirela and Austin Hedges offer more upside while Hosmer and Chase Headley provide a bit more consistency to an offense that had only one above average hitter—based on OPS+--last year.
For the Brewers, this offense is stacked. Yelich and Cain are great table setters with both power and speed. Travis Shaw came into his own last year while Ryan Braun, Eric Thames, and Domingo Santana have plenty of thump.
Not only can the Brewers put up a quality at-bat one through eight, they also have a glut of outfielders that forces a starting quality player to the bench for late game pinch hit situations, too.
Speaking of late game, the Brewers’ pen is deeper than the Padres. Corey Knebel and Brad Hand are both quality closers, but getting to Knebel, Milwaukee can turn to Josh Hader, Matt Albers or Jeremy Jeffress.
MLB Pick
The real difference here is the offense. Milwaukee is loaded with offensive talent and should be able to exploit Perdomo’s control issues.
Look for Suter to pitch well enough a couple times through the San Diego order before turning the ball over to the bullpen to close out the last three to four innings.
MLB Odds: Brewers 8, Padres 3
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