The season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Minnesota Twins who find themselves selling rather than buying as the non-waiver trade deadline looms. Things don’t get any easier for the Twins this weekend either as they head to historic Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox with the first game of four on Thursday night. For the series opener, it figures to be Kyle Gibson on the hill with the Sox starter still up in the air.
First pitch of the game between the Twins and Red Sox is scheduled for Thursday, July 26, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Red Sox come into play with the best record in baseball and the second best run differential behind the reigning World Series Champion Houston Astros. Meanwhile, the Twins are well under-.500 with a run differential 186 runs worse than Boston.
For that much of a difference, it should be no shock that the Sox are the better team offensively, defensively, and on the mound.
Boston has made two fewer defensive errors despite playing four more games and has an elite defensive outfield with Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi. The infield can pick it well, too.
At the plate, no team has plated as many runs as the Sox. Boston ranks first in runs scored, first in team OPS at .795, second in homers at 140 and first in average, hitting .270 as a team. Boston can hit the ball out of the park, but can put runs on the board with base hits and speed, too.
The Twins, on the other hand, were a very strong offensive club last year, but have regressed mightily with Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, two of the bigger contributors last year, both relegated to the minor leagues. The Twins are in the middle of the pack in runs scored and have a .244 average as a unit with 38 fewer homers and a .720 OPS.
As for the pitching, Boston in third in the AL with a 3.56 ERA while Minnesota is tenth at 4.47. The gap in the pen is even bigger as the Sox have a bullpen ERA nearly a run and a half lower than the Twinkies.
Probable Pitchers
With Eduardo Rodriguez and Steven Wright both out, it would be Brian Johnson’s turn in the rotation on Thursday though Johnson is seemingly the arm that’ll be pushed out to make room for newly acquired Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi hasn’t started since July 20 so he would be well rested to make the start if he can get to Fenway in time and get set in his environment.
Eovaldi has had a nice season since coming back from injury. He’s pitching to a solid 4.26 ERA in 57 innings and has a much more impressive 0.982 WHIP and a very good 1.3 walk per nine inning ratio. Really, his biggest issue has been the long ball. He’s allowed 11 home runs already in just 10 starts.
The right-hander was great his last time out against the Marlins, but he did have a rough start against the Twins a couple starts ago, however, allowing eight runs on nine hits in just 2.2 innings so maybe it’s best to go with Johnson in this game.
Johnson is just 1-3, but is pitching to a 3.81 ERA while making 26 appearances, five of them starts. He’s thrown 54.1 innings and has a 3.80 FIP though his WHIP is a bit high at 1.417 due largely to an inflated BABIP. He’s not a big strikeout arm, but he’s also managed to keep his walk rate at a reasonable level, giving him a respectable 2.76 strikeout to walk ratio.
The 27-year old southpaw is not an elite arm, but he’s a very good swing man. Of course, adding him back to the pen does the Sox a bit of good, as does adding a right-hander to a lefty heavy rotation.
On the other side of this matchup, the start should go to Kyle Gibson. The righty himself may be on the trade block.
At 30-years old, Gibson is having his best season. He’s already amassed 2.4 WAR and in 20 starts has pitched to a 3.57 ERA and 1.240 WHIP. His 3.85 FIP and 120 ERA+ show he’s been well above average and keeps his team in the game even if his 4-7 record is rather uninspiring.
The right-hander has thrown 121 innings in 20 starts, meaning his prone to go deeper in games than many of today’s starters, averaging a bit over six innings a start.
Gibson is more prone to walks than either Eovaldi or Johnson though the contact he does allow tends to be weaker and he’s put up a better home run rate, allowing just 13 in his 20 starts. He’s also got a solid 8.9 strikeout per nine inning ratio. That’s not particularly impressive in today’s game, but it illustrates the ability to get the swing and miss when needed.
Gibson is coming off a not-so-great start against the Royals his last time out, but he did pitched well against the Red Sox in his only start against them in 2018, going six innings and allowing just two runs on June 21. Still, despite the good performance, he still took the loss in the game.
Live Betting
The duo of Betts and J.D. Martinez at the plate is well documented as are the struggles of Brian Dozier, Logan Morrison and others in Minnesota.
Looking solely at the numbers, it’s easy to see how the Twins don’t match up with the Sox in any area of the game.
More recently, along with the bats of Betts, Martinez, Benintendi and even Xander Bogaerts and others, Steve Pearce has been a great addition against southpaws. He’s 15-for-37 as a Red Sox with six extra base hits.
He adds a good late game pinch hitter and matchup option when he doesn’t start. Meanwhile, on the mound, Matt Barnes and Craig Kimbrel have been lights out the last month at the end of games.
For Minnesota, Fernando Rodney’s been showing his age lately. The opposition is hitting .316 against him over the last 10 games he’s appeared. Addison Reed has allowed eight runs in his last six appearances, too.
Offensively, Brian Dozier is just 2 for 19 since the All-Star break while Eduardo Escobar and Max Kepler are the only ones hitting since the four days off.
MLB Pick
Gibson is a solid pitcher, but the Twins are still just 9-11 when he starts. He may keep the team in the game through six, but he needs the offense and the bullpen to help out.
Look for the prolific Sox offense to plate a few runs against Gibson and add on against the Minnesota bullpen. The Boston offense is deep in talent and has two of the better hitters in the game, look for at least one to go yard. Meanwhile, the rest of the offense is generally rather patient and could exploit Gibson’s slightly elevated walk rate.
On the other side of this matchup, the Twins’ offense—save a couple sluggers—has largely been a letdown. While Johnson and Eovaldi are both back-end starters, each can maneuver their way through the Minnesota lineup. Even if Eovaldi does get the start, don’t look for him to have two successive clunkers against the Twins.
Regardless of who starts for Boston as this game moves into later innings, the Sox have a good lineup of arms to close out the game ending with Craig Kimbrel in the ninth for the save.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 6, Twins 4
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