The Los Angeles Angels were one of the primary competitors for the Minnesota Twins in the race for the second AL Wild Card spot in 2017. Now, the two meet for the first time in 2018 on Thursday—for the first of four in Anaheim—under very different circumstances. Both teams were looking to build off positive momentum in 2017. For the Angels, that’s put them neck-and-neck with the Astros atop the AL West while the Twins have struggled a bit through the first month and a half.
First pitch for the game between the Twins and Angels is scheduled for Thursday, May 10, 2018, at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium. The matchup will be shown on Fox Sports 1.
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Odds Analysis
It’s been a tough start to the season for the Twins, but a series victory over the White Sox in Chicago could be just what the doctor ordered for Minnesota.
After dropping 11 of 12 and falling to 9-16, the Twins have bounced back, winning five of six and now sit second in a lackluster AL Central.
The Twins haven’t gotten the pitching or offense they expected, but they’re recent string or wins at least indicates this could be an interesting battle against an Angels’ team so far exceeding expectations.
Los Angeles hit a bump in the road in mid-April, struggling over a difficult stretch of schedule that featured the Red Sox, Astros and Yankees. Since then, they found themselves against the Orioles and Mariners and are primed to take on the Twins.
The Angels’ bats are strong and Mike Trout finally has some support. Trout’s .336/.458/.720 slash line is ridiculously good and he’s can thank the support of Shohei Ohtani, Albert Pujols and Justin Upton hitting behind him.
Ohtani’s bat has been a real surprise. The swing looked long in Spring Training, but he’s hitting .339 with four homers and 14 RBIs in 16 games. Upton and Pujols have each hit six bombs. Pujols also recently tallied his 3,000th career hit.
Pujols’ .286 OBP is disappointing and he can be gotten out, but the veteran slugger is still a threat with runners on base. He’s driven in 20 and always seems to find a way to get the runner over or in.
In Minnesota, the offense hasn’t been as good as it was last year. The Twins’ bats were amongst the best in baseball in the second half of 2017, but so far in 2018, the lineup has been mediocre.
Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano on the shelf cost the team its best base runner and best power hitter, but Eduardo Escobar is making Twins fans forget about the Jorge Polanco suspension while Eddie Rosario is showing his breakout season last year was not a fluke.
Logan Morrison is also finally starting to swing the bat after a terrible start to the year. Now, the team just needs Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier to get hot again. Dozier hit a few homers early, but his average is down to .226 while Mauer’s OBP is still high at .425, but he’s not showing any pop and has just eight RBIs.
Probable Pitchers
The youngsters are the only ones having much success on the mound for the Twins. Lance Lynn is struggling and Jake Odorizzi has been hittable lately after a nice start.
Meanwhile, Fernando Romero has now delivered back-to-back scoreless starts and Jose Berrios remains the team’s acting ace.
It’s Berrios who gets the ball on Thursday’s series opener. The right-hander had a breakout season in 2017 and is replicating the success in his first seven starts of 2018 with a 3-3 record, 3.98 ERA and 0.984 WHIP. His 3.56 FIP shows he’s been a bit unlucky so far and he’s done well lowering his walk rate, allowing eight walks in 40.2 innings.
Berrios had a couple rough starts to end April, but looked a bit better his last time out, allowing four runs in six innings against the White Sox, ultimately getting the win. Overall, he’s pitched at least seven shutout innings in three of his seven starts. He’s got great stuff, it’s just a matter of finding consistency at this point.
To counter Berrios, the Angels have their own ace lined up to make the start: Garrett Richards.
Richards showed he can be a staff ace in 2014 and 2015, but hasn’t had a healthy season since. His seven starts here in 2018 are already more than he had in his last two campaigns. Fatigue isn’t an issue yet, but will be as the season wears on.
For now, Richards is 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.369 WHIP. He’s walked 5.2 per nine innings, putting unnecessary batters on base, but has 45 strikeouts in 34.1 innings to bail himself out of jams.
In this matchup of starters, Berrios has the control advantage, but Richards has provided the more consistent results. He’s coming off a 6.2-inning, scoreless performance against the Mariners and has allowed more than two runs in a game just twice in seven starts.
Live Betting
It’s hard to judge a bullpen by ERA this early in the season. We’re dealing with small sample sizes, but through 116.1 innings for the Twins and 143 innings for the Angels, we see a big difference between these two relief corps.
The Twins rank third from the bottom in bullpen ERA at 5.42 while the Angels are in the upper half with a respectable 3.65 mark. Just as telling as the ERA difference is the difference in innings pitched.
Mike Scioscia has leaned on his pen far more than Paul Molitor so far. As we get into the hot summer months, the wear and tear for the Angels may show through. For now, however, we see an Angels’ manager confident in who he can call on out of the pen. Molitor has been less confident and more willing to stick with the starter a bit longer.
For the Angels, look for quality out of the pen. Kenyan Middleton is injured, but Cam Bedrosian and Blake Parker are filling in nicely in the late innings while Jim Johnson is a valuable veteran presence and Jose Alvarez is nearly unhittable.
In Minnesota, Fernando Rodney has okay numbers in the closer’s role, but is an adventure every time out. Addison Reed and Ryan Pressley are the more reliable arms, but the depth is less than what the Angels have at their disposal.
MLB Pick
The Angels have an advantage in this series in nearly every facet of the game. Jose Berrios is a good pitcher and will be tough for the Angels, but Los Angeles has a strong starter queued up for this game, too.
Behind Richards, the Angels’ bullpen has delivered above expectations while the Twins bullpen has struggled. The Angels’ bats are also swinging well.
The Angels are playing great baseball and hanging in the AL West standings with the reigning World Series champion Astros. The Twins, a team that beat out the Angels for a wildcard spot last year, on the other hand has crashed and burned on the young season, but a recent hot streak makes this a bit more interesting.
Look for the Angels to scratch a couple runs across against Berrios as the two starters keep the game close, but Los Angeles will create some distance against the Twins’ bullpen, ultimately coming away with a win at home.
MLB Odds: Angels 5, Twins 3
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