The Minnesota Twins split their first series in a National League park. They open another series with the pitchers stepping to the plate on Monday as they travel to Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals. Both these teams entered the season with playoff ambitions. Behind Monday’s likely starter Carlos Martinez, the Cardinals remain in a solid position to deliver on those expectations while the Twins will look to a rookie making his second career start in Fernando Romero to outduel the two-time All-Star.
First pitch for the game between the Twins at Cardinals is scheduled for Monday, May 7, 2018, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Twins are slumping. Going into Thursday, they were 2-10 in their last 12 games and have found new ways to lose seemingly every day.
The pitching has been suspect outside of a select few arms and the offense is disjointed. Eduardo Escobar has been great filling in for Jorge Polanco after his PED suspension. Escobar has really been the most effective batter with a .308/.350/.582 slash line and he’s one behind Eddie Rosario for the team lead in homers. Rosario has five.
Elsewhere, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton—the team’s best young talents—are both injured while Brian Dozier are cooled way off after a good start to the year. He’s now hitting .236 which, of course, is still better than Logan Morrison’s .157 from the DH spot. Minnesota may be the only AL team that gets better offensively without the DH the way Morrison is swinging.
For the Cardinals, Jose Martinez has been as important as anyone. The first baseman was supposed to be a role player, but he’s made most the starts at first and has played in 28 games. He’s batting .286 with 18 RBIs, the most on the team. His 127 OPS+ is third on the team—amongst players with more than Jedd Gyorko’s 22 at bats—behind only Tommy Pham and Paul DeJong.
It’s good to see Pham and DeJong delivering after both came out of nowhere last year to put up big seasons. They’re doing it again, covering up for the .170 average from Dexter Fowler and .167 mark by Matt Carpenter.
Probable Pitchers
The one pitcher you don’t want to face if you’re the Twins, Carlos Martinez figures to get the ball on Monday to make his eighth start.
Now in his sixth season, Martinez has been surprisingly consistent since joining the Cardinal rotation in 2015. He’s produced three straight seasons of at least a dozen wins and an ERA of 3.64 or better. The two-time All-Star has already established himself as a very good starting pitcher, but he’s entering elite territory with his 2018 start.
In an environment where offenses are built around the home run, Martinez has allowed just one home run in 45 innings so far in 2018 and is 3-1 with a 1.40 ERA. He has hit eight batters already—most in the Majors—and has seen his walk rate bump up a bit, but he’s allowed only 28 hits.
Given his career BABIP, Martinez has been a bit lucky for now, but he’s exploiting the opponents’ desire to drive the ball and, instead, instigating weak contact.
Ultimately, the 3.24 FIP he’s pitched to so far this year is probably more indicative of how he’s throwing, but even that’s pretty darn good.
Fernando Romero made his Major League debut on Wednesday and the 23-year old right-hander tossed 5.2 shutout innings against the Blue Jays. While he did allow four hits and three walks to Toronto, he also struck out five Jays hitters. All in all, it was an excellent debut.
The biggest issue for Romero was pitch count. He was unable to nab the quality start because he couldn’t get through six innings. He threw 97 pitches in the game.
Romero will get better are pitch efficiency as he gets more experience, but for now, we saw that his stuff plays at this level. He’ll get a second chance, this time against the Cardinals.
The young right-hander is in his sixth professionals season after joining the Twins organization as a 17-year old. He’s pitched in 73 games, 57 starts, and is 23-17 with a 2.83 cumulative ERA. Throughout the minors, he’s produced a minuscule home run rate and has a strong 3.08 career strikeout to walk ratio.
In four games at Triple-A Rochester in 2018, Romero was 0-1, but allowed just six earned in 21 innings. He did see his walk rate jump to 4.8 per nine innings as the more experienced hitters have become more adept at taking his breaking ball. He needs to do better at starting the ball in the zone before it falls out to entice the hitter to swing at it.
Live Betting
It’s hard to refute the idea that the Cardinals have the upper hand in this game. Martinez is an ace and while Romero has electric stuff, he’s still young and unproven.
Moving into the bullpen, the Cardinals have a couple dependable arms in the back end. With a pitcher like Martinez on the mound, St. Louis shouldn’t need to dip too deep into the pen. Jordan Hicks and Bud Norris are dealing, it’s the others that’re having issues.
In Minnesota, the depth of the pen figures to be more important, but it’s not any better than in St. Louis. Fernando Rodney is the closer, but he’s showing his age. He’s already lost twice and has just three saves despite finishing eight games. He’s walked five, allowed 13 hits and two homers in 9.2 innings.
Ryan Pressly and Addison Reed are delivering for Paul Molitor, but the Twins skipper cannot go to them all the time. They’re already heavily worked, combining for 32.1 innings. They cannot cover all the innings that’ll be needed to bridge from Romero to the end of the game.
MLB Pick
The Cardinals are far from the model of consistency, but it’s hard to pick the Twins right now, Minnesota is playing close games with the White Sox and prior to that series had lost 10 of 12 games.
Minnesota is without its two-prize young Major Leaguers and the pitching hasn’t delivered either in the rotation or the bullpen.
Romero looked good in his first start, but he’s matched up against Martinez. He’ll need to deliver another excellent performance and that’s a lot to ask of a youngster.
Look for Romero to pitch well, but surrender a few runs over five frames before having to give the ball to the pen. The Cardinals should be able to add on against the bullpen while Martinez breezes through the Twins struggling lineup who will be even more hampered without a designated hitter.
MLB Odds: Cardinals 7, Twins 3
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