The list for the National League Most Valuable Player award seems to already be narrowed down to a handful of candidates with two players at the top of the list where they’ve been for most of the season.
It’s hard to imagine any one else running in and grabbing the award, but there is still nearly a month of baseball to play and a red-hot month—of an ice cold one from a top contender—can have a huge baring on who takes home the hardware. Last year is a prime example with Christian Yelich having a scorching hot second half to take home the trophy.
Yelich is in the race for the award again this season. Can he repeat or will it go elsewhere with the best player form the best team in the league amongst the contenders.
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NL MVP Odds
Cody Bellinger -450
Christian Yelich +175
Anthony Rendon +850
Freddie Freeman +5000
Nolan Arenado +6500
Jeff McNeil +6500
Field (Any Other Player) +1999
Odds Breakdown
Way back in April, the NL MVP race looked like it would come down to Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich. That does seem to be the case here in the early going.
Bellinger leads the way in WAR amongst any NL player. He also, currently, leads the way in home runs in 43, but that’s a tight race. His 314 total bases are impressive, and his .310/.411/.653 slash line is incredible, though he doesn’t lead the league in any of those categories. He does have 102 RBI—though that stat has gone a bit out of fashion for most voters.
There’s a strong case for a Bellinger MVP award based on those offensive numbers considering he’s the best player on the best team in the league, but his defense also helps. A first-baseman turned center-fielder, Bellinger has been an excellent defender in the outfield. That’s where he gets a bump over Yelich who owns the better OBP and slugging percentage.
Speaking of the Brewers’s outfielder, the reigning MVP has a notch in his belt for 2019 given he’s already taken the hardware, making it easier for voters to see him as the MVP again. He’s also got a .328/.423/.670 slash line and has the league leading OPS or 1.093 and OPS+ of 176. He’s just a homer shy of Bellinger and 10 RBIs short. Based on the bat, Yelich should seem to have the edge, but the defensive metrics—as flawed as they may be—have him as a slightly below average defender this year.
Beyond those two top dogs, it’s a clear step down in competitors and the odds reflect that. Bellinger is favored and Yelich, at +175, has rather favorable odds as well. Anthony Rendon is the only other player with odds in the triple-digits.
Rendon missed sometime early with injuries but has played in 121 games and is the key bat for a Washington Nationals team that worked its way back from a dismal record in May to be in the thick of the race for October.
He’s primed for a big moment to help left the Nationals to the playoffs and those type of moments certainly help a narrative needed to win an award pointing to value rather than solely someone’s numbers.
Of course, for Rendon, the numbers support his case, too. He leads the NL in average at .337 and has a 1.056 OPS and 162 OPS+. He’s had a few less homers than Bellinger and Yelich but has still hit 32 with his 37 doubles. He also has 111 RBI.
Moving down the listed candidates for the award, we have Freddie Freeman next at +5000, a big jump from the top three. The Atlanta first baseman is the heart and soul of the NL East leading Braves. He’s got the lead in RBIs in the league. He’s also hit 38 homers, but his .973 OPS and 144 OPS+, as good as they are, fall short compared to Bellinger, Yelich, and Rendon.
After Freeman, the only other two players listed outside of the field are Nolan Arenado and Jeff McNeil, both at +6500. Arenado is a perennial contender and plays on a terrible team. He’s got the overall numbers to compete and an excellent defensive reputation to boot, but his OPS+ doesn’t compared given the Coors Field factor. He’s had more deserving seasons where he hasn’t won the award.
McNeil, meanwhile, is the one player that doesn’t seem to fit in this list, but he’s had a great season. He’s not he big home run bat, but he’s a hits machine and has a 141 OPS+. He’s also the glue for a Mets team that made a big surge in August though they seem to be sliding a bit which won’t help his candidacy. For him to have a shot, the Mets need to go on another big run with McNeil being the obvious catalyst for that on the offensive end of the ball.
As for the field, in a deep pool like this the field is often a nice bet as it gives you a plethora of eventualities that could pay out. In this case, however, we have a good portion of the season’s data and while there are a few options that are interesting, the top candidates do seem to have a huge leg up on any of the potential sleepers.
Potential Sleeper
At this point, it appears to be a rather defined race, but after it seemed to be a two-way race much of the season, there have been others break into the picture of late. While still a longshot compared to the likes of Freeman and Rendon, let alone Bellinger and Yelich, Ronald Acuna Jr. is certainly making a name for himself on a team that’s taken care of business in the NL East.
While Freeman is the leader on the team and has the better OPS, Acuna is a 30-30 guy and does play a more demanding position, including a good number of games in centerfield. WAR has Acuna ahead of Freeman in value, which is an important note.
Of course, Acuna is still behind Bellinger and Yelich, amongst others, in that metric, but the classic 30-30 stats could get him a few extra votes from the old-time writers, though Freeman’s league leading RBI—provided he holds on to that—could also sway a few voters.
Overall, it’s looking like Rendon is the only one with much chance to break up the Bellinger versus Yelich party, but the likes of Acuna as well as Ketel Marte for the Diamondbacks make the field at least somewhat interesting. In the end, though, its hard to see an any huge surprise for the award in the NL. That includes someone like Jeff McNeil, even as a New York player.
Analysis and Prediction
This race is still very much Bellinger versus Yelich. Those two are the top two players in fWAR with Bellinger inching out Yelich. Rendon, however, is close, and could be worth throwing a few dollars, but its doubtful this award goes to him.
Overall, Bellinger looks like the best bet. The Dodgers are destined for another NL West crown and at the end of the season will be huge favorites to win the NL pennant. Whether right or not, the MVP winner does tend to be from a winning team. While the Brewers should finish the season above-.500, that’s not a lock; and making the postseason is even less of one.
That said, the final month of the season can go a long way in deciding the award. The last few moments of heroics do seem to stick in voters’ minds. Should Yelich have a monster homer to clinch a postseason spot in the last week of the season, that could be a nice boost.
For now, Bellinger looks like the best bet, but Yelich has the better odds and could have the nice end of season narrative while Bellinger is just the best bat on a deep team.
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