We’re now midway through the third month of the season and the Atlanta Braves are still atop the NL West, albeit tied with the Nationals. Atlanta’s next series kicks off on Tuesday as the Braves host the struggling New York Mets. In Tuesday’s series opener, the Mets will turn to veteran southpaw Jason Vargas while the Braves have one of the game’s most underrated arms set to make the start in Mike Foltynewicz.
First pitch for the game between the Mets and Braves is scheduled for Tuesday, June 12, 2018, at 7:35 p.m. ET at SunTrust Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
It’s been a rough go for the Mets. They faced the Braves in a four-game series to close out May and split the series. Since then, however, New York has failed to win a game.
The Mets were sept in a four-game series against the Cubs, lost two straight against the Orioles and then continued the slump against the Yankees. All three of these series occurred in Queens with all of them ending in unmitigated failure. Perhaps it’s good this game is in Atlanta.
Still, either way, the trends aren’t good for the Mets. Heading into their Sunday Night matchup, they had gone a dismal 16-33 after a 11-1 start. The fact New York isn’t associated with the worst teams in the league like the Marlins and Reds is purely due to the first two weeks of the season. Since that point, they’ve been just as bad.
The Braves got off to a hot start, too, but unlike the Mets, they’ve sustained the success, mostly.
Atlanta has lost back-to-back series, losing two of three against both the Padres and the Dodgers, but those series losses came on the road. At home, where they’re facing the Mets, the Braves split their last two series, but the last decisive one was a win.
While the Braves aren’t playing quite as well as they did earlier, there’s no denying which team is playing better baseball right now. The Braves are at least hitting the ball reasonably well and have a couple dependable bullpen arms; neither of those two are true in New York.
Probable Pitchers
The Braves have the better offense, better bullpen and better defense. The one area that the Mets have the advantage is in the front end of their rotation. In Tuesday’s pitching matchup, however, the edge clearly goes to the Braves there, too.
Since Atlanta doesn’t have a Noah Syndergaard or a Jacob deGrom fronting its rotation, the closest thing the squad may have to an ace is Mike Foltynewicz.
Folty has shown promise for a couple years and the Atlanta brass has been bullish on him turning the corner. Turns out, they were right.
The 26-year old right-hander has been huge for Atlanta this year. He’s improved his ERA from 4.79 in 2017 to its current 2.31 through 13 games here in 2018.
Foltynewicz is 5-4 with that 2.31 ERA and a 1.189 WHIP. His 2.98 FIP and 10.7 strikeouts per nine and five total homers in 74 innings back up the idea that he’s taken significant strides forward despite a still elevated walk rate.
The walks are the biggest weakness for Folty, but the righty has been so good this year, he’s overcome them. He should do the same against a Mets’ offense that’s pressing hard right now. Another point in Foltynewicz’s favor is his recent streak. He’s pitching to a 0.97 ERA in his last six starts with a .167 batting average against. He could be one of the most underrated arms in the league and is starting to establish himself as a true front-of-the-rotation arm.
With all the excitement around Folty, it’s hard not to get amped up for this pitching matchup if you’re a Braves fan. After all, not only do you have your best arm on the hill, you get to square up against Jason Vargas.
The Mets’ southpaw was added in the offseason to stabilize the back-end of the rotation, but has failed to do that.
He pitched well in his last start, but that was against a bad Orioles offense. Overall, he’s still 2-4 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.747 WHIP in 30.1 innings. He’s already allowed six home runs and has given up 41 hits. He’s not fooling anyone.
He’s been especially bad at the start of games. He’s allowed 14 earned runs in the first innings of his second starts while hitters are batting .375 against him the first time through the order. Provided he makes it to second time through, the average drops over 100 points as he settles in, but he’s getting his team behind early.
Live Betting
It’s no secret that the Mets aren’t hitting. Asdrubal Cabrera was the surprisingly strong bat for the first couple months, but even he’s slowed.
Todd Frazier’s still a low average bat with some pop, Adrian Gonzalez is past his prime, Devon Mesoraco’s gotten a few homers since his acquisition, but even he is hitting just .205 as a Met. Really, the only legitimate offensive threat right now is Brandon Nimmo of all players. Jay Bruce is hitting .222 with three bombs and Yoenis Cespedes is on the shelf.
This is a bad offense with an unfavorable pitching matchup and little in the way of bullpen help behind Vargas.
Jeurys Familia is on the DL now, joining A.J. Ramos who wasn’t throwing well anyway. With Seth Lugo starting in Syndergaard’s place for now, that leaves Robert Gsellman, the failed starter, as the most reliable arm in the pen for Mickey Calloway.
Sure, the Braves’ bullpen is a bit shallow, but they can certainly do better than that. Arodys Vizcaino has held his own in the closer role, Shane Carle, Dan Winkler, A.J. Minter and Jesse Biddle all have thrown at least reasonably well in spots.
Of course, the offense is where the biggest difference between these teams shows up. The Braves can hit. The Ronald Acuna injury is unfortunate, but not nearly enough to bridge the gap.
Freddie Freeman has a .341/.433/.561 slash line, making him way better than anyone in a Mets’ uniform. Meanwhile, Nick Markakis continues to provide quality at bats, Ozzie Albies is a surprise power bat, and the rest of the order is packed with quality major leaguers. Ender Inciarte is the only sub-100 OPS+ in the starting lineup and he brings speed with 18 steals along with excellent defense.
MLB Pick
While Vargas looked better in his last start, it came against the Orioles who have struggled to score runs all year. That, obviously, hasn’t been an issue for the Braves.
Atlanta is showing that it has staying power. The offense is good, the bullpen has some issues, but has some quality arms. Folty, meanwhile, has put up one heck of a season and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.
Look for the Braves to get to Vargas early and take advantage of his horrendous numbers in the first innings. They’ll add on a few more runs and knock the lefty out early before adding more against a bullpen that doesn’t have many great options in the middle innings.
On the other side, Folty can be counted on for six solid innings and while the pen isn’t indestructible, it’ll be able to hold on to what figures to be a sizeable lead through the final few innings.
MLB Odds: Braves 9, Mets 3
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