Sunday represents the finale of the 2018 season series between the New York Mets and New York Yankees as the Bronx Bombers host the Metropolitans at Yankee Stadium. The Mets will put up their best in this nationally broadcast game, sending Jacob deGrom—their lone All-Star—to the mound fresh off his All-Star performances while the Yankees hope their offense, bullpen and the pitching of Masahiro Tanaka are enough to overcome the Mets’ ace.
First pitch for the game between the Mets and Yankees is scheduled for Sunday, July 22, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
No matter how you compare these two New York teams, the Yankees come out ahead. They’ve won 23 more games, have a much better offense, much better bullpen and have an amazing .717 winning percentage at home. In fact, they’ve only lost 13 games at home all year.
The Yankees series against the Mets will be a nice reprieve after a three-city road trip and before heading to St. Petersburg to take on the Tampa Bay Rays.
As for the Mets, they’re 20-23 on the road—much better than they are at home, but still under-.500.
On top of their dismal record, the Mets are 8-17 in their last 25 games, but are a better 7-7 in their last 14 affairs. Even with that slightly better play, the Mets don’t stack up.
Offensively, the Yankees .793 OPS is second only to the Astros while the Mets have scored the fewest runs in the National League. They’re hitting .228 as a team and have a .307 OBP and .685 OPS. They’ve also hit 64 fewer homers than the Bronx Bombers.
For the Mets, Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Nimmo, Wilmer Flores and Jose Bautista are the offensive threats. While Bautista’s resurgence with New York and Nimmo’s 139 OPS+ and 13 homers in 261 at bats are impressive, he and the rest of the Mets’ offensive ‘threats’ don’t match up against the likes of Aaron Judges’ .937 OPS and 25 homers of Giancarlo Stanton’s 23 home runs and 55 RBIs. In fact, they don’t even match up with the Miguel Andujars or Aaron Hicks of the team which are the support players in this stacked lineup.
Probable Pitchers
Jacob deGrom represents the Mets’ best chances at topping the Yankees as the right-hander is one of the best pitchers in the game.
The 30-year old right-hander has already accumulated six WAR this season and is pitching to a MLB best 1.68 ERA along with a league leading 2.32 FIP. His other numbers are just as impressive with 123.1 innings pitched, 149 strikeouts, just 30 walks and only seven homers.
The home run rate is especially key against a team like the Yankees that hits homers early and often. If he’s able to limit the long ball, he could have success against the Yankees.
Even with deGrom being lights out all year, he’s only nabbed five wins and is 5-4 in 19 starts as the bullpen and offense let him down. For as good as he is, the Mets are just 8-11 in his starts and he’s got just one win in his last 10 games. In that time, he’s 1-4. He threw 16 combined innings in his last two starts, allowing one run and didn’t factor into any decision.
Against the Yankees earlier this year, deGrom pitched an excellent game, allowing only three runs—two earned—in eight innings. The Bronx Bombers managed one long ball in that game.
On the other side of this matchup, Masahiro Tanaka pitches for the Yankees. The veteran right-hander went down with a hamstring injury the last time he faced the Mets but did managed a solid five frames before going down.
Even factoring the missed time, the season numbers for Tanaka pale in comparison to deGrom. He’s 7-2 which is nice, but he’s got a 4.54 ERA and 1.9 homers allowed per nine innings. His walk rate is solid and strikeout rate is good, too, but the homers have killed him at times.
Fortunately for Tanaka, the Mets’ offense is depleted due to injury, but they could still take him deep once or twice to stay in a game where deGrom is unlikely to give up many runs.
Tanaka’s lackluster numbers aren’t unique to 2018 either as he struggled much of 2017, pitching very inconsistently. He’s a starter that could toss seven shutout innings or get knocked out in the fourth. He’s got just 0.6 WAR this year, but did pitch well in his last start, holding the Indians to two runs in 6.1 innings. He only lasted 77 pitches in that game as he ramps up his pitch count after injury.
Live Betting
During the first half of the season, the Milwaukee bullpen got tons of love and the so did the Cubs’ and Diamondbacks’ crop of relievers, but the best of the best in baseball is the Yankees’ bullpen which has a 2.69 ERA.
New York’s bullpen—at least the one in the Bronx—is stacked with talent. After a rough start to the season, Dellin Betances has settled down to pitch like he has throughout his career. He’s got a 2.61 ERA and 15.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s one of seven relievers that have a K:9 ratio of at least 10.7 out of the Yankee pen.
Basically, everyone coming out of the New York pen is a flamethrower. Aroldis Chapman is chief among them. The closer has 1.35 ERA and 26 saves while strikeout out 68 in 40 innings of work. Add in Chad Green, David Robertson and even Adam Warren, A.J. Cole and Chasen Shreve and everyone Aaron Boone has at his disposal will cause the Mets’ fits.
The same, however, is not true on the other side of this matchup. The Mets’ have a good closer in Jeurys Familia, but they need to get to him with the lead. There’s also always the threat the Mets could deal him any time prior to July 31.
Even with Familia, the Mets’ pen is vastly outmanned compared to the Yankees. The Mets’ team ERA out of the pen is 4.73, better only than the Royals, Indians, Rockies and Marlins. Their prime lefty, Jerry Blevins has a 1.543 WHIP and 5.76 FIP.
MLB Pick
If the Mets are going to win a game in this series, it’s probably going to Sunday’s game given the starter, but New York is below .500 when deGrom pitches even considering how great he’s been. The Mets cannot score for him.
Look for the Yankees offense to scratch across a run or two against deGrom who will go seven strong in this but end up on the wrong side of the score.
Tanaka’s prone to the home run, but the Mets don’t have many home run hitters—at least not many that are healthy.
Even with no offense behind him, deGrom will give the Mets a chance, but look for the bullpen to blow it while the Yankees’ bullpen will be well rested for this series coming off the break and hold the line once Tanaka is done, giving the Yankees the win in the series finale.
MLB Odds: Yankees 4, Mets 3
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