After five games against each other this year, the season series between the New York Mets and New York Yankees comes to an end on Monday with a makeup of a game postponed due to rain on July 22. This isn’t the 2000 World Series featuring two elite New York teams. Instead, this is more a David versus Goliath story though can the Mets really beat the Goliath that is the Yankees and even the season series? They’ve got the right arm on the mound in Jacob deGrom, but will have to overcome Luis Severino to give deGrom his second consecutive victory.
First pitch of the game between the Mets and Yankees is scheduled for Monday, August 13, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees had a rough series in Boston last weekend, but sandwiched that rough stretch with some wins on either side against lesser teams. The Mets are another lesser team.
The Bronx Bombers are 71-42 while the Mets are a dismal 47-65. The Yankees do miss Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge who are both out with injuries, but even without those two sluggers, the Yankees have a potent offense. They also have a stacked and healthy bullpen. Really, the biggest area of concern for the Yankees is the rotation and we’ll get to the probable starters in this matchup in a moment.
The Yankees have some injuries to overcome and did struggle in a four-game series against the Red Sox, but compared to the Mets, those are all first-world problems.
The Mets meanwhile are a poorly run franchise who are playing poorly on the field, mismanaging assets and misdiagnosing injuries.
How all that pertains to this game on Monday is pretty simple: the Mets don’t matchup with the Yankees on offense, in the bullpen or on defense.
Like the Yankees, the Mets have their own injuries, but while the Yankees can still trout out an outfield of Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner despite the Judge injury; the Mets, with Yoenis Cespedes and Jay Bruce injured and Asdrubal Cabrera now in Philly, are giving playing time to players dropped by other organizations like Austin Jackson and others way past their prime like Jose Bautista and Jose Reyes.
Probable Pitchers
Jacob deGrom – RHP – deGrom finally got back in the win column in his last start, throwing six scoreless against the Reds. His scoreless outing wasn’t a surprise given his 1.77 ERA, but the fact he got any run support and the bullpen was able to close the door is a bit unique.
Despite the stellar ERA and amazing individual numbers, deGrom is just 6-7 and the Mets are only 9-14 when the 30-year old right-hander toes the rubber. That’s not on deGrom. After all, he’s allowed two runs or fewer 18 of his 23 starts and no more than a single run in 15 of those.
While the Mets haven’t supported deGrom, nobody can say he doesn’t give the team a chance to win even without scoring much.
With a 7.1 WAR, 1.77 ERA, 0.965 WHIP and 2.20 FIP, deGrom is a favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award even while pitching for a bad team and getting very few wins. deGrom just doesn’t allow runs. In 152.1 innings, he’s allowed just 113 hits, 34 walks and eight home runs while striking out 183. He’s struck out 36 more batters than have gotten a hit or walk against him, combined.
The Yankees haven’t announced their starters for this series, yet, but Luis Severino would be in line to make the start.
The 24-year old right-hander is the ace of this team. He’s 15-5 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.104 WHIP in 150.1 innings of work. In his 24 starts, he’s amassed a 4.1 WAR and is at or near the top of the league in most categories, including leading the way in wins.
While Severino’s numbers this season are strong, he’s struggled a bit lately. As of July 1, Severino was a frontrunner for the AL Cy Young Award with a 13-2 record and a 1.98 ERA. Since that time, Severino has made six starts and has gone 2-3 with a 7.31 ERA in 32 innings.
In his last start, Severino did throw his first quality start since the first of July, but he did so against the Chicago White Sox who still managed to score three runs on seven hits—including a home run—in seven innings. Speaking of that home run, that’s been the biggest issue for him recently. He’s allowed nine of his 15 homers in his last six games.
The Yankees will hope his last outing against the White Sox is a step in the right direction, but fans have got to be skeptical.
Earlier this year, Severino faced the Mets and took a loss in the game, allowing two runs in five innings. He was outdueled in that game by Seth Lugo. deGrom is, obviously, a bit better.
Live Betting
Statistically, these two teams are worlds apart.
On offense, the Yankees have scored the second most runs in baseball, have a .781 OPS and have a league leading 181 home runs. They can hit the ball hard and far.
The Mets, on the other hand, have scored the fourth fewest runs in baseball, have a .868 OPS as a team and have just 114 team homers. The Mets are hitting .229 as a team and have a .309 OBP. The Yankees OBP is 21 points higher.
In the bullpen the mismatch is nearly the same. The Yankees have gotten some hiccups from Zach Britton and others lately, but they’ve still got a 3.66 ERA as a unit with several different looks and dynamic arms.
The other New York team has a 4.37 ERA out of the pen and are worse than that number suggests now that Jeurys Familia is pitching in Oakland. After all, Robert Gsellman, he of the 5.19 ERA last year, is the new closer.
No matter where you turn in this matchup, the Mets measure far short of the Yankees with the exception of the rotation, but as we’ve seen time and time again, deGrom cannot win for the Mets on his own. Baseball is a team sport.
MLB Pick
Severino’s recent struggles are concerning, but the Mets—like the White Sox—offer an easier opponent to try and get right against. He pitched well against Chicago and should do the same against the Mets.
Look for Severino to go five or six solid innings before the stacked Yankee bullpen takes over and closes the door. While the Bronx Bombers have had a couple losses out of the pen recently, the team seems to be back on track. Look for the combination of Severino and the pen, hold the Mets to just a couple runs.
Once again, that would mean next to no run support for deGrom who may leave the game with the lead, but will ultimately fail to get the win, again.
The Mets’ bullpen is depleted. Look for the Yankees offense—even without Judge—to get a run or two against deGrom and add on just enough to win the game against the Metropolitan bullpen.
MLB Odds: Yankees 3, Mets 2
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