A month ago, this would’ve seemed like a lopsided matchup with a contender taking on a team out of the mix, but a strong month of August has the New York Mets back in the thick of things as they get set to wrap up a three-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. Both teams are a couple games out of a playoff spot now, but which can wrap up this series with a win and some momentum to kick off the final month of the regular season?
First pitch for the game between the Mets and Phillies is scheduled for Sunday, September 1, 2019, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
On the season, the Mets and Phillies are neck-and-neck this season the two are in a battle with several other clubs for a wild card spot and have produced similar overall offensive numbers.
The Mets have been the better team in the second half but have stumbled a bit of late with five straight losses as of Thursday. Even with that, New York boasts a superior run differential, over 20-runs better than the Phillies.
At the plate, the Mets are led by rookie Pete Alonso who has already hit 42 home runs and driven in 101 as the anchor in the heart of the order. He’s been a major contributor, but this lineup is deeper than one player. In fact, there are nine players with at least 10 home runs though two, Robinson Cano and Dominic Smith, are on the IL. In addition to Alonso, Michael Conforto has 27 homers and 76 RBIs.
Since the All-Star break, both Alonso and Conforto have hit double-digit homers, combining for 23 long balls amongst them, but they’re not the only ones hitting well.
Ahmed Rosario has been a beast in the second half with a .347 average. J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil have both also been major pieces. The former is hitting .344 with a .407 OBP while the latter has hit nine homers and has a .980 OPS.
On the Phillies’ side of things, they haven’t had nearly as much second half success. Bryce Harper has been solid in the second half with 12 dingers and a .937 OPS. Jean Segura is batting .305 in the second half, too, while J.T. Realmuto has been good, showing improved power. Rhys Hoskins, however, has struggled with a .174 average.
Overall, the Phillies do have some power though they don’t have a 40-homer bat like Alonso. They also lack the .300 hitters like Davis and McNeil.
Probable Pitchers
Marcus Stroman takes the ball for the Mets in this one. The right-hander was the biggest name pitcher on the move at the trade deadline save Zack Greinke, but he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations since heading to the Big Apple.
The 28-year old right-hander was having a huge season for the Blue Jays before the traded despite a 6-11 record. He had a 2.96 ERA in 124.2 innings though some of that was a mirage given his 1.227 WHIP and rather high batting average against.
The walk rate was solid for the right-hander who also did an excellent job keeping the ball in the park for the Jays. Overall, even with a mediocre strikeout rate he had a solid 3.50 FIP for Toronto.
Since joining the Mets, however, Stroman has made five starts. In his most recent, he allowed a pair of two-run home runs and increased his Mets’ ERA to 4.91. He’s 1-1 in those five starts but has a 5.19 FIP and 1.675 WHIP. He’s seen his walks and home runs both jump with New York. He’s walked 12 and allowed five homers in just 25.2 innings. Overall, the opposition has a .898 OPS against him.
Stroman hasn’t had the easiest opposition so far with the Mets facing teams like Washington, Atlanta and Chicago. Still, he was expected to be better. He has yet to record a quality start for the Mets.
On the other side of this matchup, the Phillies will counter Stroman with Zach Eflin.
A former first-round pick, the 25-year old right-hander has yet to show any top-end stuff but has been a solid mid rotation arm the last couple seasons.
So far in 2019, he’s just 8-11 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.383 WHIP through 128 innings. Those aren’t great numbers, but given his home park, it’s good enough for a 101 ERA+, the definition of average.
Like Stroman since coming to the Mets, Eflin has allowed his share of homers, but has been a bit better at avoiding walks.
This will be Eflin’s third start since rejoining the rotation. He hasn’t thrown more than 80 pitches since mid-July so he’ll likely be limited a bit in pitch count. The Phillies are also just 1-10 in the last 11 games he’s appeared.
That said, Eflin did deliver a strong six-inning, two-run performance in his last game, albeit against the Marlins.
Betting Predictions
Both starters are coming into this game with some questions and neither is likely to go too deep in this game, leaving things up to the bullpens.
Neither team has been great in relief this year. The Mets were supposed to be solid in the back-end, but both Jeurys Familia and Edwin Diaz—established back-end options—have mid-5 ERAs. Seth Lugo and Justin Wilson have been okay, but that’s hardly quality depth for Mickey Callaway to call upon.
The Phillies do have Hector Neris in their closer’s role, having much more success than Diaz this season. He’s saved 23 games and pitched to a 3.23 ERA. Jose Alvarez has been good as have Mike Morin and Blake Parker since both joined the club.
More recently, Neris has been nearly unhittable over the last month while Juan Nicasio and Ranger Suarez are throwing well, too.
The Mets still aren’t getting what they expected from Diaz, but lately Familia has looked much better. Wilson is throwing very well as are Luis Avilan and Paul Sewald.
MLB Pick
Both bullpens have seemingly settled a bit, but neither are great. Look for both teams to score some late runs in this game to increase the scoring after the starters pitch reasonably well.
Stroman has yet to show his best stuff in New York and he’s one that can run hot and cold. He’s cold right now and it is hard to trust him. Look for Harper and Realmuto to lead the charge against him as he continues to struggle with his command, leading to too many walks and a long ball or two.
While Eflin isn’t a lockdown starter, look for five solid innings from him before the ball is handed to the pen to try and close the game out.
In the end, this should be a tough game, but look for the home team to get the win. The Mets are as streaky a team as there is in the game. They feed off their fans when they’re playing well, but they’ve slowed the last week and are on the road in this one.
MLB Odds: Phillies 6, Mets 5
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