The New York Mets and Washington Nationals close out their three-game weekend series in primetime on Sunday night as part of ESPN’s Sunday Night Game of the Week. This is the National’s home opening series bringing an extra bit of excitement to an already excellent matchup between divisional rivals. Wrapping up a series of fun pitching matchups, Matt Harvey and Tanner Roark take the mound, each coming off strong season debuts on the heels of disappointing 2017 campaigns.
First pitch for the game between the Mets and Nationals is scheduled for Sunday, April 8, 2018, at 8:08 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Mets stole the show from the Nationals in their home opener on Thursday, beating the Nats 8-2 and handing them their third straight loss. The Mets, meanwhile, roll into the weekend having won three in a row.
Washington is the presumed NL East champions again in 2018 after waltzing to the division crown in 2017. The Mets figure to be the Nationals’ biggest competition though New York won just six of 19 games against Washington a season ago. They were outscored by 41 runs in those 19 games as the Nationals owned the Mets last year. In their first meeting of 2018, the Mets put that to rest.
New York is a remade team in 2018. The offseason saw a number of players added to the mix and the recent return of Michael Conforto to the order provided another extra spark.
Probable Pitchers
Not quite the series opening match up of Stephen Strasburg versus Jacob deGrom, Harvey and Roark is an interesting matchup.
Both Harvey and Roark had down years last year and both teams expect much better performances from their respective right-handers here in 2018.
Over his career, Roark has been jostled around between the bullpen and rotation. He’s done better when starting than relieving and going into 2017 had ERAs of 2.85 and 2.83 in his only two full seasons as a starter. He started 30 of 32 games in 2017, but slumped to a 13-11 record and 4.67 ERA. He did, however, pitch better in the second half than in the first.
Facing a Braves team that’s swung the bats well in the early going, Roark lasted seven innings, giving up just a single run on four hits and one walk. He struck out six Atlanta hitters.
In his career, Roark has had great success against most Mets players. Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes are a combined 4-for-27 against him.
As for Harvey, the former Cy Young contender was lost last year. He pitched in 19 games and ended with an abysmal 6.70 ERA and 1.694 WHIP. He wasn’t fooling anyone. His strikeout rate plummeted to 6.5 per nine innings, nearly two per games fewer than his career average, while his home run and walk rates skyrocketed. He allowed 21 homers and 47 walks in 92.2 innings of work.
Harvey hasn’t been the same since over extending himself in his first season back from Tommy John surgery in 2015. After pushing himself in the postseason and into the World Series, he had a 4.86 ERA in 2016 and completely fell apart last year.
Harvey, however, did look good in his first start of 2018. He went just five innings against the Phillies, but held Philadelphia scoreless, giving up one hit and one walk and striking out five.
It’s unlike Harvey will ever be as dominant as he once was, but his last start provides hope he can at least get back to being a serviceable mid-rotation arm.
Washington, of course, is a tough offense to face in his second test of the season, but he’s done well against the Nationals in his career, pitching to a 3.16 ERA despite a 3-6 record. Last year, one of his better starts came against Washington when he went seven innings, allowing three runs against the Nats in April. He lasted just four frames in his second start against them last year, but we’ll ignore that for now.
Live Betting
The Mets won Game 1 of this series, but the recent history still shows the Nationals dominating this matchup.
Washington has outscored the Mets on the season. Adam Eaton and Bryce Harper are red-hot. Eaton has a pair of homers and a OBP nearly .500. Harper is looking every bit the part of a free-agent to be looking to earn a massive pay day. Through the first six games, Harper had a 1.517 OPS and had gotten on base more than half of his at-bats.
The two form a dynamic one-two punch atop the order and allow Washington to grab an early lead. The rest of the order has been a bit less consistent so far. Trea Turner has looked good, too, batting in the middle of the order rather than atop the order.
Washington’s offense should get even better. Ryan Zimmerman will hit. Anthony Rendon will hit.
For the Mets, the offense is clicking and the return of Conforto only makes it better. Brandon Nimmo and Juan Lagares are both swinging well in the early going as are Adrian Gonzalez, Cespedes and Amed Rosario.
Offensively, the Nationals are the better team on paper. In the bullpen, the Mets have a strong back end though the loss of Anthony Swarzak to the DL is a big one.
MLB Pick
Washington has the advantage here, playing in the Nation’s Capital, in front of their hometown fans. While the return of Conforto and the strong start for the Mets does make this an intriguing matchup, Washington is still the best team in the NL, at least on paper.
Look for the Nationals to get to Harvey who, despite a good season debut is still working with diminished stuff compared to his glory days.
The Nationals’ lineup is stacked and will provide a much bigger challenge than the one in Philadelphia. Washington should grab an early lead behind the red hot top of the order and cruise to rather easy victory though the Mets are a better team than in 2017 and will at least stay in the game until the end.
MLB Odds: Nationals 6, Mets 3
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