After a strong 8-1 start, the Boston Red Sox will get to defend their early season record against their most likely competitors in the New York Yankees. This newest installment of the storied rivalry between these two legendary teams boasts an excellent pitching matchup and plenty of storylines. Chris Sale and Luis Severino are scheduled to toe the rubber with each team looking to establish a dominance over the other to carry them throughout the season.
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Red Sox is scheduled for Tuesday, April 10, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
Much has already been written—and said—about the Yankees’ legendarily stacked offense. The combination of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton is dynamic. These are baseball’s reigning home run champions from each league and they now hit back-to-back in the New York lineup.
After Judge and Stanton, the Yankees have Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius as part of a stacked middle-of-the-order, but the rest of New York’s lineup is much less intimidating.
With Greg Bird, Aaron Hicks, Brandon Drury, Jacoby Ellsbury and others on the disabled list, the bottom of the order is a collection of role players rather than proven everyday option, a stark contrast to the Murders’ row at the top.
In fact, on Sunday, the Yankees had Neil Walker hitting clean up in the lineup. Now, guys like Tyler Austin, Tyler Wade, Jace Peterson and Ronald Torreyes are getting at-bats daily.
New York is still putting Major League players on the field despite so many injuries. That’s impressive, but the lineup is not nearly as strong as was expected in Spring Training.
Meanwhile, on the other side, the Red Sox are mostly healthy save for Dustin Pedroia. Eduardo Nunez has filled in and played well.
Xander Bogaerts is off to a hot start for Boston and is not alone. Rafael Devers, Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts are all seeing the ball well.
Overall, these two teams bring very different approaches to the plate. New York has more power, but also presents more swing-and-miss. Boston, on the other hand, was at the bottom of the league in homers last year, but still amongst the top in runs scored. They manufactured runs with on-base percentage, moving runs and collecting timely hits. That skill set will prove helpful against elite pitchers like those scheduled to pitch Tuesday.
Probable Pitchers
Outside of the historic rivalry, the story of this game is the pitching matchup: Sale versus Severino.
Sale is the more proven commodity. The southpaw, at just 29-years old, is already in his ninth big league season and seventh as a starter. He’s finished in the top-5 in AL Cy Young Award voting each of the last five seasons and was last year’s runner up with a 17-8 record a 2.90 ERA.
Sale has made 12 starts against the Yankees in his career and has a 1.81 ERA, though he has only four wins. He was 0-3 against New York last year, but it was hardly his fault. He pitched 34-innings, giving up 11 runs—10 earned—and striking out 50 batters.
Through two games in 2018, Sale is already off to a strong start. He’s won both his starts, allowing six hits while walking three in 11 innings. His strikeout rate remains high, too, sitting down 15 on strikes.
In 2017, Severino’s numbers compare favorable to Sale as the young Yankee hurler finished just behind Sale in the Cy Young voting at third.
Of course, Severino doesn’t have the long track record of Sale, but he was 2-1 against Boston last year with a 3.33 ERA.
Severino is also pitching well in through his first two 2018 starters, building off his 14-6 record and 2.98 ERA of 2017. Through two starts this season, the young righty is 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings. The one down side: he has walked four.
Live Betting
Sale gets the slight edge over Severino in the rotation matchup. In the bullpen, however, the Yankees have the edge, at least based on the names.
New York’s bullpen hasn’t quite lived up to expectations, yet. Dellin Betances is struggling with command and has already allowed two home runs. Others are also still finding their way, struggling with the feel in the cold weather.
For Boston, Craig Kimbrel has looked like himself in the ninth and that may be all that is needed with Sale starting. If not, Heath Hembree, Hector Velazquez, Matt Barnes and others give Alex Cora enough options to mix-and-match his way to outs until it’s time for Kimbrel.
For the Yankees, however, Aaron Boone’s options are much more limited. The day off on Monday helps, but New York’s pen was worn thin against the Orioles over the weekend when they played 44-innings over four days thanks to two extra-inning games.
MLB Pick
The Yankees have plenty of right-handed hitters to combat Sale, but Sale has proven his dominance against the Yankees and handles righties and lefties like a true ace. The New York sluggers will be sent back to the dugout on strikes much more than they will be rounding the bases.
Look for a low scoring game with a couple of aces on the hill. Both these starters are off to strong starts on the heels of Cy Young caliber seasons.
In the end, the more diverse Red Sox offense gets the job done, pushing across the winning run as Sale goes deep and Craig Kimbrel slams the door shut, extending Boston’s early AL East lead.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 3, Yankees 2
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