The historic rivalry continues with yet another ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game featuring the beasts of the AL East: the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. It’s the Sox who are in first place and hosting the Yankees in this series finale, looking to end the four-game set on a good note, but they’ll have David Price on the mound who has been terrible against the Yankees this year while the inconsistent Masahiro Tanaka pitches for the Yankees, looking to extend a scoreless streak.
First pitch of the game between the Yankees at Red Sox is scheduled for Sunday, August 5, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Red Sox have the division lead over the Yankees, but coming into the series, the Yankees held the edge in the season series between the teams, winning five of nine though Boston scored four more total runs. It’s incredibly close between these two teams.
That’s especially true offensively where the Red Sox and Yankees rank No.1 and No.2 in baseball in runs scored. They’ve also got a .790 team OPS and .791 team OPS respectively.
The Yankees are the better power team while the Red Sox have the better average and OBP, they’re also hitting more doubles.
On Sunday, the Yankees will have to score their runs without Aaron Judge who is on the DL along with Gary Sanchez. Judge has the highest OPS on the Yankees while Sanchez has destroyed Price in his career going 6-for-12 with five homers. Those two will be missed, but the Yankees still have Aaron Hicks who has a pair of dingers against Price in his career along with Giancarlo Stanton, with 24 home runs on the year, Didi Gregorius with 18 and Gleybar Torres who has a .902 OPS and is putting together one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory.
The depth for the Yankees helps cover for the injuries.
The Red Sox are missing a couple bats, too, with Christian Vazquez and Rafael Devers on the shelf, but they’ve got their biggest bats healthy in Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Both Betts and Martinez are ripping the cover off the ball. Those two outshine anyone on the Yankees’ active roster, but after them, there are some holes in the order.
Ian Kinsler was added to play second and is a good glove, but at 36-years old, his bat has slowed. Jackie Bradley Jr. is another glove first player with a .215 average. The Sox lineup is a tough one—just look at the runs scored—but there are a few more manageable spots in the order if you can get to them.
Probable Pitchers
While it’s not quite as impressive as a Luis Severino versus Chris Sale matchup, this pitching matchup of Masahiro Tanaka and David Price, arguably, provides a bit more intrigue.
For the Yankees’ side of the matchup, Tanaka is a former ace of the staff, but has been inconsistent at best over his last two seasons. The righty, however, has thrown the best he’s thrown over his Major League career in his last three games, tossing 17.1 consecutive scoreless innings, leaving him a third of an inning away from a career high established when he was an ace for the team back in 2016.
Tanaka’s also been really adept at giving the team just enough to get the win. He’s 9-2 with a 3.84 ERA in his 17 starts and is pitching to a 1.047 WHIP as he’s done well at making the opposition put the ball in play. Unfortunately for him, however, sometimes the ball goes over the fence. He’s given up in more than a home run per start this year. That high home run rate has resulted in a 4.42 FIP.
Back to his most recent successes, Tanaka’s last two starts in particular have been phenomenal. He held the Rays scoreless in a complete game shutout, allowing just three hits and a walk while striking out nine and followed that up with six scoreless frames against the Orioles.
Boston is a much more difficult opponent than the Rays or Orioles and that shows in his last two starts against the Sox where he went 10.1 combined innings, allowing 10 runs on 15 hits, including four home runs.
Of course, the Yankees have been even more of a challenge for David Price than the Sox have been for Tanaka.
This is a crucial start for the veteran southpaw. Price has been bad against the Yankees since he joined the Red Sox in 2016, going 2-6 with an 8.43 ERA in nine starts. He’s been even worse this year and gave up five home runs against them when he last faced them back on July 1. The Yankees have his number and are the type of team that can thrive on his fastball heavy approach, particularly given the plethora of right-handed power bats in the order.
Like Tanaka, the overall numbers this year for Price are rather solid. He’s 11-6 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.218 WHIP. He’s got 2.4 WAR and has thrown 122.1 innings in his 21 starts, giving Boston some depth.
Price has been better with the home run ball than Tanaka will putting up similar strikeout and walk rates, leaving him with a better FIP at 4.16.
With a 111 ERA+, he’s been pitching like a No.2 or No.3 starter and that’s solid, even though his salary would indicate he should be better. He has been better if you discount his numbers against the Yankees, but you cannot do that if he’s going to pitch against them.
In fact those numbers become more important and as bad as they’ve been since he’s joined Boston, they’ve been worse this year. In two starts against New York this year, Price has pitched only 4.1 innings while allowing 12 runs on 12 hits including six homers.
Live Betting
These are the two best teams in baseball right now so finding much differential in any statistic is difficult. Both offenses are good, the pitching is strong for each too though the head-to-head numbers for the starters leave plenty to be desired.
While no matter what faced of the game you look out these two teams always rank in the top-5, the area where the Yankees probably have the biggest advantage is in the bullpen. New York has the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 2.86. The Red Sox rank No.5 at 3.34. Both are good, but the Yankees are better.
While the Yankees have the better numbers in the pen, they’re the ones that went out at the deadline and improved the bullpen. The Sox looked at upgrades to the pen, but came away empty handed in that area.
New York added Zach Britton to the pen, giving the team an extra left hander to replace Chasen Shreve. With Britton, the Yankees have three closers in Britton, Aroldis Chapman and David Robertson. Plus, they have two closer quality arms in Chad Green and Dellin Betances. With those five big names, they can essentially shorten the game to five innings and mix and match from there.
Boston has an elite closer to shorten the game to eight, but Craig Kimbrel doesn’t have the same support around him that Chapman does.
Matt Barnes, Hector Velazquez, Tyler Thornburg and others are getting the job done, but they don’t have the electric stuff that makes them virtually unhittable like the guys in the Yankee pen.
MLB Pick
Even without Judge, look for the Yankees to continue to hit Price hard. It’s not just the way the team matches up against Price that gives them an edge, but they’re in his head now and when an issue is mental, that makes it all the more likely things will go awry.
Count on the Yankees getting to Price early. He’s not likely to completely explode again, but he’s been consistently bad against the Bronx Bombers and to expect anything else seems rather foolish at this point.
The Yankees will get to Price early, hit a few bombs and knock him out of the game, giving the ball to a middle of the pen that is a little short. The Yankees will add a few more there and cruise to an easy win.
With Tanaka coming in throwing well, look for that to continue and an early lead for him to help him remain calm and in control throughout his start. And, of course, with the Yankees’ beefed up bullpen, Aaron Boon can give him a quick hook as soon as his stuff starts to fade.
The Sox are too good of an offense to expect Tanaka to continue his shutout streak past this start. The Sox will get a few against him—and may add one or two against the pen, but not enough to make a dent in this game.
MLB Odds: Yankees 9, Red Sox 4
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