The Boston Red Sox have won the AL East the New York Yankees are in the Wild Card and likely to host that game. Despite their postseason futures being decided, this won’t be a game either team will just being going through the motions. Boston could face the Yankees in the division series next week and as much as these two teams have faced each other this year, Saturday’s middle game of the three-game weekend series to close out the year could serve as a chance for both teams to build some confidence against a potential postseason opponent.
First pitch of the game between the Yankees at Red Sox is scheduled for Saturday, September 29, 2018, at 1:05 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be broadcast on live on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees are Red Sox are anything but strangers. They play each other 19 times a year and have battled each other atop the AL East for years.
This year, the Sox hold the slight edge in the season series, winning nine of their first 16 meetings and outscoring the Yankees by 14 total runs in those 16 games.
Overall, Boston is the better offensive team, though it’s very close. The Red Sox and Yankees rank one and two, respectively, in baseball in runs scored and are the only two teams to have plated 800 runs to this point in the year.
How these two teams have gotten here, however, vary greatly. The Yankees have hit 56 more home runs than the Red Sox. They have six players with at least 23 home runs and 12 that have hit at least 10 over the fence while in pinstripes. Amongst them, however, are two players, in Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird, hitting below the Mendoza Line.
As a team, the Yankees are hitting .248, which puts them right around the AL average.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, are hitting a league leading .267 as a team. They’ve got a .337 OBP and a .450 slugging percentage. Despite the home run difference, the Sox’s slugging percentage is two-points higher than that of the Bronx Bombers as Boston’s hit 76 more doubles and a handful more triples.
All in all, the Sox are the more versatile team. They have Mookie Betts who is a 30-30 guy and he and J.D. Martinez have combined for 73 home runs but are also hitting .343 and .328 respectively, driving in runs with the home run, but more so by just putting the ball in play.
Overall, the Red Sox’s offense is much less dependent on the home run. They can hit the ball out of the yard, sure, but they have other ways to score, too, making them a much harder offense to face.
Probable Pitchers
Neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox have announced their starters for this series save for Boston sending Rick Porcello to the mound on Friday night.
Saturday’s game won’t feature Porcello or either Chris Sale or David Price who pitched in the team’s doubleheader against the Orioles on Wednesday. Nathan Eovaldi pitched on Monday and Eduardo Rodriguez pitched behind him in that game as he gets groomed to take a spot in the bullpen come the division series.
Hector Velazquez got the start last time through the order and could easy be given the ball again on Saturday afternoon for Boston.
The 29-year old right-hander has mostly pitched in relief for the Sox this year, but has made eight starts as well. He’s 7-2 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in 82.2 innings of work.
He’s allowed more than his share of base runners and has a rather low 5.7 K:9 rate, but induces weak contact and keeps the ball on the ground which bodes well against a power hitting team like the Yankees.
In three games against the Yankees this year, all in relief, he’s allowed two runs in 3.1 innings, giving up four hits and a walk while striking out two.
As a starter this year, Velazquez is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA. At home, he’s 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA in 20 games, including three starts. He’s not likely to go deep in the game given his 3.1 innings and 54 pitches thrown in his start last time through the order, but he’s a quality arm when he’s in there.
On the Yankees’ side of things, it’s hard to tell the direction they’ll go. Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and C.C. Sabathia aren’t options. J.A. Happ will pitch one game in the series against Boston—probably—while the others could be covered by Lance Lynn or a bullpen arm, including one of the young starters they called up when rosters expanded.
Happ would give the edge, clearly, to the Yankees, but Lynn hasn’t been as strong since coming over, pitching to a 4.21 ERA and 1.344 WHIP, though he does have a 2.20 FIP in his 51.1 innings.
Beyond that, Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga and Chance Adams are other options, but they’ve had their struggles when given a chance.
Live Betting
With expanded rosters and both teams headed for October, there could be heavy bullpen usage in this game as both teams look to keep their starters healthy.
The Yankees have the advantage in the bullpen though Aroldis Chapman has been rusty in his couple outings off the DL and Dellin Betances has started to slump a bit, too. When Betances is off his game, things can get ugly. He was almost unusable last postseason. His command is better than that right now, but he has allowed a few hard hit balls of late.
On the positive side, however, Zach Britton is inducing groundballs and looks very strong. Dave Robertson and Chad Green are throwing well, too.
The Yankees also have some young arms available if needed to eat a couple innings. From Justus Sheffield, Loaisiga and Adams are some high upside, although not overly experienced, arms available in this contest.
For the Sox, Craig Kimbrel is lights out and throwing better than Chapman right now, but most of his set up options have been struggling, including Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly and Heath Hembree. Steven Wright has been the most reliable bullpen piece of late.
MLB Pick
Don’t look for deep starts for either the Yankees or Red Sox as both teams start to get their rotation and roster set for October.
The Red Sox have been the better team all year and have the series advantage against New York. Look for them to get enough pitching to hold on, particularly with the Yankees not getting much, yet, from Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius on the sideline.
On the mound, it won’t be Sale, Price or Procello, but Boston has plenty of viable other options to give the team a few innings and Velazquez is a solid Major League pitcher.
In the end, look for the Red Sox superior offense to carry them to a narrow victory at home where they swept the Yankees in four games when these two teams last met at Fenway.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 6, Yankees 5
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