The New York Yankees have all but clinched the AL East title as they journey north to face the Boston Red Sox on Sunday night. The Sox, however, are still alive in the AL Wildcard hunt—just barely. Can the Yankees push their rivals closer towards elimination or will Boston muster an upset in this primetime showdown at historic Fenway Park?
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Red Sox is scheduled for Sunday, September 8, 2019, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
After Boston took the division and went all the way to a World Series title last season, New York has flipped the script here in 2019, dominating the Sox.
Through the first 15 head-to-head matchups between these teams this season, the Yankees have won 11, good for a .733 winning percentage against their arch rivals.
The Yankees—like most teams—are a better home team than a road team. They’ve got a .707 winning percentage at home, but still fair rather well on the road with a 39-27 record entering this series with Boston. New York has also won five of their last six road games. The team’s 8-2 in their last 10 overall.
As for Boston, the Sox are 12-5 in their last 17 games as they try to get back in the postseason chase. It may be too little too late, but Boston is at least playing some quality baseball coming into this Yankee series.
While the Sox do have the home field advantage on Sunday, that hasn’t been all that big of an advantage for Boston this season. They’re a .500 team at home and have a 40-29 record on the road.
Probable Pitchers
With a short rotation due to Chris Sale’s injury, the Sox haven’t announced their rotation for the Yankee series, but Rick Porcello would be on turn to take the ball on Sunday night.
It’s been a rough season for the former Cy Young Award winner. Porcello is 12-11 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in his 28 starts for the Sox. He’s pitched 153.1 innings and has a 4.94 FIP. His BABIP is a bit inflated, but his strikeout rate has dropped from where it was the last few seasons. He’s also seen his walk rate tick up.
The 30-year old right-hander leads league in earned runs allowed and has given up 28 home runs.
Despite the high ERA, the Sox are still 16-12 when he takes the ball, but Porcello is coming off a rough start against the Twins where he allowed six runs on eight hits—including a pair of home runs—in just four innings to take the loss.
The overall numbers aren’t great, but Porcello did pitch well—and got the win—in his last start against the Yankees, going six innings and allowing just three runs in a 19-3 victory over the Bronx Bombers back on July 25. He’ll try to repeat that performance.
On the Yankees’ side, Sunday is Masahiro Tanaka’s turn to take the ball.
The Yankee’s right-hander has had a rough season against the Red Sox, facing them just two times, totaling a mere four innings while allowing 18 runs—all earned—on 16 hits and five walks. He’s allowed three homers against them, too.
All that damage, however, has come against Boston on the road where he’s got a 5.93 ERA this season. Meanwhile, he’s got a 7-3 record and 3.24 ERA at home.
Overall, Tanaka is 10-8 with a 4.42 ERA in 28 games. The Yankees are 17-11 in his starts. The righty has thrown a team high 163 innings and pitched to a 100 ERA+ with a 4.33 FIP and 1.233 WHIP.
Tanaka is coming off a strong start in his last outing—though he did take the loss in that one. He allowed just two runs in six innings to the Rangers in his last start. That was his fourth quality start in his last five games.
Live Betting
This game features a pair of struggling starters against two of the best offenses in baseball.
The Yankees and Red Sox rank second and third, respectively, in the sport in runs scored, behind only the Minnesota Twins. Both teams have an OPS of at least .825 and boast a high OBP and plenty of power. Both have also hit even better in the second half of the season. The Yankees, since the break, have a .874 OPS. Boston’s OPS in that time is .860.
These teams can mash. Despite a plethora of injuries, the Yankees are getting production from top-to-bottom in the order. A newly healthy Luke Voit gives the Bronx Bombers 11 hitters on the active roster with an OPS+ of at least 110. And that is with Gian Carlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Aaron Hicks, and Gio Urshela all still on the IL.
There’s a ton of power in this lineup with Gary Sanchez and Gleybar Torres each hitting 34 dingers and Voit, Aaron Judge, Edwin Encarnacion and several others all capable of going yard at any time.
The Sox’s lineup is a bit less deep, but still has a ton of prolific hitters. Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts have broken out with 60 homers combined and 210 RBI. Bogaerts has a 143 OPS+ while Devers has a 138.
Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez both have down years compared to last year, but both are still monsters at the plate with an OPS of .905 and .969 respectively. They both provide plenty of average and power each.
So, offensively, both teams can mash and likely will against the opposing starters, but which bullpen can stop the bleeding? The Yankees’ pen is certainly better equipped.
The Boston bullpen has been a struggle this season. Brandon Workman is currently in the closer’s role and has had a nice season, but he’s better equipped as a set up man. Marcus Walden, Matt Barnes, Ryan Braiser, and Colten Brewers are the primary—and flawed—set up men. There are, of course, plenty of other options with expanded rosters, but nobody that really provides much confidence.
For the Yankees, however, they’ve got Aroldis Chapman in the ninth inning as a shutdown closer with a 2.22 ER, 13.5 K:9, and 36 saves. Ahead of him, Adam Ottavino and Zack Britton can shorten the game to six innings. Chad Green has been pitching better. Tommy Kahnle has had a good season. Beyond that, young arms like Chance Adams and Jonathan Loaisiga are available along with long relief options like Luis Cessa and Nestor Cortes Jr.
MLB Pick
This could be a high scoring affair on Sunday night. Neither pitcher has a great track record against the other team and while Tanaka’s seasons has been better than Porcello, he’s struggled both on the road again against the Sox.
Look for both offenses to score early and often, driving the opposing pitchers from the game rather early. From there, the bullpens will take over which certainly gives the home team a bit of an edge.
Count on the Yankee’s bullpen to slow down Boston’s scoring enough for the Yankees to gain—and hold—a lead, getting the win, yet again, against the Sox.
MLB Odds: Yankees 9, Red Sox 7
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