In a potential postseason preview, the Cleveland Indians will host the New York Yankees in game three of a four game series on Saturday. The Indians, a benefactor of a weak division are virtual locks to win the AL Central while the Yankees are in a heated battle for the AL East despite boasting ten more wins than Cleveland. While both teams go with their aces in the series opener, this Saturday night showdown offers an interesting pitching matchup of its own with C.C. Sabathia starting for the Yankees and Mike Clevinger on the bump for the Tribe.
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Indians is scheduled for Saturday, July 14, 2018, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Progressive Field. The matchup will be televised on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
The Indians went on a 22-game winning streak in the second half of last year to help propel them to a 102-60 record. Before that, the Tribe was a good, but not great team in much the same position they’re in right now.
Cleveland’s benefited from very little pressure this year. The bullpen has been awful, but the team’s weathered the storm by getting solid offense, great starting pitching and playing in a division void of any good teams other than them. Overall, they’ve still been streaky.
Case and point to the Indians’ inconsistencies this year is their last week. After winning five in a row last week, they’ dropped four straight, scoring an average of three runs a game before toppling the Reds 19-4 yesterday. Can those 19 runs jumpstart the Cleveland offense?
The Tribe rank fourth in baseball in runs scored, just a few runs behind the Yankees, but while New York has been consistently able to drive in runs, Cleveland’s runs have come in bunches.
The Indians are getting most of their offensive production from their All-Stars: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Michael Brantley. Ramirez has had the best season of the three with a 1.001 OPS and team leading 27 dingers and 65 RBIs. Lindor is just a bit behind with a .941 OPS, 25 homers and 62 RBIs while Brantley doesn’t have as much power, though he is a doubles machine with a .307 average.
Beyond the big three, the Tribe has a few league average bats in Yan Gomes, Yonder Alonso and Edwin Encarnacion, but not nearly as much depth as the Yankees.
New York has a .795 OPS as a team, higher than the OPS of every single Indians’ player other than the three previously mentioned players.
Gleybar Torres and Gary Sanchez are injured, but even with them out, the team has Austin Romine to step in behind the plate and will put a lineup together with eight players all having an OPS+ of at least 100 with six over 115.
Like the Indians, the Yankees have a pair of sluggers with over 20 homers and over 50 RBIs in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Beyond those two, however, the Yankees have hit 17 more homers than the Indians and are on pace for a record number of homers having already hit 154.
Probable Pitchers
Outside Luis Severino, C.C. Sabathia has been the Yankees most reliable starter this season. The veteran southpaw is on the back-end of his career, but is still giving the Yankees a chance to win most times out.
While Sabathia’s generally dependable, his last time out was a struggling, allowing five runs on seven hits—including a pair of homers—in five innings to the Orioles.
Even with the tough outing, the lefty is 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.283 WHIP. He’s second on the team in innings with 94.1 though he had to go 17 starts to get them. He’s averaging between five and six innings a start. He gives you some good innings at the front and then turns the game over to the strong Yankee bullpen.
While Sabathia’s last start was lacking, it was the first time he allowed more than three runs in a game since May 23 against Texas. Between those starts, he went seven starts and allowed two or fewer runs on five occasions while notching four quality starts. He failed to get through the sixth inning in the other three outings.
Lifetime against his original team—the Indians—Sabathia is 4-3 with a 3.36 ERA. He went six scoreless against them earlier this year.
Much like Sabathia, the Indians’ hurler, Mike Clevinger, is also coming off a rough outing where he allowed five runs against the Reds while unable to record an out in the seventh.
The right-hander did strikeout out 11 Reds in that rough outing so it wasn’t all bad. He was fooling hitters, but when they made contact, they got on base. Some of that is luck.
Going beyond that last start, like Sabathia, Clevinger has been throwing well. He’s 7-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.233 WHIP this year. He’s thrown one more game than Sabathia and 22 more innings.
Clevingers’ 3.34 ERA is impressive, but his FIP is even better at 3.19 despite a solid, but not overwhelming strikeout rate and a good, but not great walk rate. Where he stands out in the FIP department is his lack of home runs allowed. He’s allowed only eight his 18 starts. That’s notable against the Yankees who do much of their scoring off the long ball.
He kept the Yankees in the yard when he faced them in May, going 7.1 innings and allowing just two runs on a single hit. He did walk four in that game, but also struck out 10. He’ll need better control this time around as the Indians ultimately lost that game. The Tribe is only 8-10 when Clevinger takes the ball. Most of that, however, is on the bullpen who are 1-6 in his starts.
Live Betting
With the offense and starting pitching matching up so tightly in this game, the differentiator is the bullpen where the Yankees have the clear edge.
The bullpen has been the real Achilles Heel for the Indians this year. The last few years, the Indians took their pen for granted and now it’s gone. Andrew Millers’ been injured, Cody Allen hasn’t been as good and they’ve had nobody else to rely on.
It’s so bad in Cleveland that the team bullpen ERA is 5.39, the worst in baseball behind the Royals, Rockies and Marlins. That’s bad.
The Indians will add relievers at the deadline, but it’s unlikely any deal will come before this game.
Meanwhile, the Yankees don’t need any deals to help their pen—though they may make one anyway.
As is, the New York pen has the best bullpen ERA in baseball at 2.72 and Aaron Boone has a ton of options with A.J. Cole pitching extraordinarily well since is acquisition while Adam Warren, Jonathan Holder and Aroldis Chapman all have sub-2 ERAs. And that doesn’t even factor in Chad Green, David Robertson, or Dellin Betances.
One other factor to consider in this game could be Manny Machado. While an Oriole, both the Yankees and Indians are in the running to acquire him though it would seem unlikely he moves prior to the All-Star game. Still, he’s a guy that could change the equation.
MLB Pick
Both teams have a dependable starter and a powerful offense led by All-Stars. These two teams are surprisingly balanced in that area, but the bullpen is the difference maker in this game.
Look for the Yankees get into the sixth with Sabathia and turn the game over to the bullpen with the score close from there, the New York bullpen can lock it down. Meanwhile, Clevinger will likely go deeper in the game, but once the bullpen comes in, the Yankees can take advantage.
The Indians’ pen is already 1-6 in Clevingers’ starts; look for them to take their seventh loss, giving up a big late home run to one of the Bronx Bombers’ many sluggers.
MLB Odds: Yankees 6, Indians 4
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