The New York Yankees have lacked consistency and look largely overrated after two weeks, but a series against the Detroit Tigers may be just what the Bombers need to get back on track. In Sunday’s series finale, the Yankees will turn to their ace to close out a series win and—ideally—a sweep to pad the early standings as Luis Severino takes the mound opposite a southpaw still trying to solidify his place in the majors in Matthew Boyd.
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Tigers is scheduled for Sunday, April 15, 2018, at 8:08 p.m. ET at Comerica Park. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees come into the series against the Tigers having dropped back-to-back series, losing three of four against the Orioles and two of three against the Red Sox.
The Tigers should be a comparative reprieve to those teams, but it’s still not a great trend for the Bronx Bombers.
New York is struggling through some significant injuries, primarily on the offensive side with lineups featuring Ronald Torreyes, Tyler Wade and Tyler Austin commonplace in place of the likes of Greg Bird, Brandon Drury and Aaron Hicks.
The top of the Yankees lineup is still as dangerous as ever with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, but there’s a big drop off in experience and threat halfway through the order.
Of course, the Tigers’ lineup is still a much lesser threat at this point.
Miguel Cabrera is not the same guy that won the Triple Crown a few years back. His bat speed is gone. The Tigers’ lineup is essentially filled with have-beens and never-weres.
Probable Pitchers
At 24-years old, Luis Severino is now the ace of the legendary Yankees. That’s a lot of pressure on a young kid, but after a top-3 finish in the AL Cy Young Award voting, it seems appropriate.
Severino was dominant in 2017 with a 14-6 record and 2.98 ERA in 31 starts spanning just under 200 innings. The workload was a big one and that always calls into questions what he’ll be the following year, but so far, so good.
Severino has already made three starts, going 2-1 with seven runs allowed over 18 innings. His seven walks are high, but he’s not allowed a homer and has gotten himself out of the jams he’s created.
Just a year out of a 5.83 ERA, it’s hard to fully trust Severino until he proves he can do it over more than a single season, but Severino has lights out stuff and has looked the part of an ace when on the bump.
By comparison, Matthew Boyd seems far less of a finished product than Severino, but the southpaw is three years his elder and has already pitched in parts of four big league seasons. He’s just missing his big break out season like the one Severino enjoyed last year. Perhaps 2018 is that year.
The Tigers’ lefty is 0-1 in his first two starts, but has given up only two runs in 13 innings and has been more a victim of terrible run support than poor pitching.
Boyd may have figured something out, but he may have also gotten lucky in his first two starts. He isn’t lucky in this matchup, however. The Baby Bombers are built around a lot of right-handed hitters which doesn’t give a southpaw like Boyd many great matchups to exploit.
Live Betting
Typically, the bullpen gives the Yankees the edge against most teams outside of Cleveland, but the New York bullpen is already a bit worn down.
The Orioles pushed the Yankees to a pair of extra-inning games last week, putting a drain on the pen which the unit is still trying to recover.
As far as effectiveness, Chase Shreve has really been the Yankees’ best reliever early on. Aroldis Chapman has finished four games, but has only one save. David Robertson has already allowed four runs while Tommy Kahnle has already surrendered seven.
Still, even with the current question marks, the Yankees’ bullpen is still better than the Tigers.
Even when Detroit was winning, they were doing it despite the pen, not because of it. Shane Greene and Alex Wilson are the late inning arms and things have started about how you would expect with those two getting the pressure innings.
MLB Pick
The discrepancy in talent between these two teams is evident. The Tigers are rebuilding and the Yankees are one of the favorites in the American League.
Boyd looked good in his last start, but the Tigers’ offense has struggled and he has yet to get a win even when he’s throwing well.
Meanwhile, Luis Severino is a tough matchup for any offense let alone one that’s struggling to put runs on the board. Unfortunately, the bullpen doesn’t provide any better matchups.
Look for the Yankees to win this one, but if Boyd continues to throw well, it could be closer than one would expect given the injuries to the New York offense and their inconsistent start.
MLB Odds: Yankees 5, Tigers 3
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