The third game of a four-game rematch of the 2017 ALCS, the Houston Astros play host to the New York Yankees in a nationally televised Wednesday Night ESPN showing. Perhaps the best pitching matchup of the bunch, Luis Severino will oppose Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel had the better series in the ALCS, can he also win this matchup or is a beefed-up Yankee offense too much to overcome, particularly with Severino on the bump?
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Astros is scheduled for Wednesday, May 2, 2018, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees are hot right now. With eight straight wins to elevate themselves from .500 to one of the AL’s better records.
New York’s improved play coincides directly with the improved offense. Giancarlo Stanton is starting to pick up his game after tallying 39 strikeouts. He’s starting to show the prolific power that made New York go out and get him from Miami in the offseason.
That, coupled with the play of youngsters Miguel Andujar and Gleybar Torres, has deepened the lineup beyond just the hot sticks of Didi Gregorius and Aaron Judge.
Judge is slugging as he did last year. His .330/.463/.608 slash line is impressive and so are his seven bombs, unless you look at Gregorius who is otherworldly right now. He’s hitting .356 with a .451 OBP and .800 slugging. He’s hit 10 homers and 30 RBIs, adding nine other extra base hits. He’s the heart and soul of a lineup right now that also has Stanton, Judge and Gary Sanchez, the latter of which has six homers and 22 BIRs of his own despite a low average and OBP.
On Houston’s side of things, the reigning AL MVP is starting to find his pop. Jose Altuve hit a couple homers this week, his first two of the season. He’s hitting .351 with a .411 OBP, but is starting to show the power now, too.
The Astros’ bats cannot keep up with New York on pure power, but Houston has the better collection of pure hitters. Josh Reddick leads the team in homers with six while Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, George Springer and Yuli Gurriel are better contact bats than the ones in New York.
Against good pitching, it’s important to be able to score multiple ways. Houston can do that. While New York is more homer happy, they have some good average hitters and solid speed, too.
Probable Pitchers
The Astros’ pitching has been elite this year and Houston leads baseball in team ERA at 2.54. Most of that is a result of excellent starting pitching.
While Keuchel hasn’t pitched badly in 2018, he’s been the weakest link the first several times through the order. In six starts, he’s just 1-4 with a 4.00 ERA. His 36 innings pitched averages to six innings a frame, though he does have a complete game, leaving the other five outings a little short.
Allowing six homers in six starts, Keuchel has been homer prone early and that’s a bad combination for a powerful team like New York. This could be the biggest weakeness for Houston in this game unless Keuchel can do a better job locating his pitches both in and out of the zone.
The 30-year old lefty allowed a season high six runs in seven innings in his last start, losing to the Oakland A’s. The Bronx Bombers—or Baby Bombers if you prefer—have a much better offense than Oakland.
On the positive side for Houston, Keuchel is pitching at home where he’s 36-22 with a 2.99 ERA for his career. He’s also 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA in six regular season starts against New York. What’s more, he out pitched Severino by the numbers in the ALCS last year.
While Severino’s numbers were mediocre against Houston last October, Severino pitched well in the postseason, following up a very good regular season where he broke out as the team’s ace.
Severino has electric stuff and is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in 2018, following up 14-6 record and 2.98 ERA from a season ago.
Last year’s third place Cy Young Award finisher is still improving and a reasonable pick to finish in the top three in voting again in 2018.
The 24-year old right-hander has thrown three straight quality starts and has allowed more than three runs in a game once in six starts.
Live Betting
Dellin Betances has been an issue out of the Yankee bullpen. He’s not hitting his spots, leading to five walks and three homers in 10 innings of work. That’s not going to get it done.
Jonathan Holder hasn’t been good in his time in the Majors either and the same can be said for Domingo German. Basically, the New York bullpen is back heavy right now. The losses of Adam Warren and Tommy Kahnle have limited the effectiveness of the pen to foursome of arms: Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Chad Green and Chase Shreve.
Fortunately for New York, that includes a lefty specialist and back end guys. With Severino pitching, they shouldn’t need much more.
In Houston, Keuchel gives you six innings a start and usually does better at home, but the Houston pen will still need at least three quality innings.
The Astros have pitched well in relief so far in 2018, but they were weak there in the postseason last year, struggling against the Yankees.
Chris Devenski hasn’t been over extended this year like he was in October and Brad Peacock, Hector Rondon and Collin McHugh are all pitching well out of the pen as bullpen additions since last year, either coming from the rotation or outside the organization.
MLB Pick
The best pitching matchup of the series for the Yankees, look for New York to put up a few runs against Keuchel who allowed six to Oakland in his last start.
After a slow start, the Yankee bats have started to heat up and the lineup is stacked from top-to-bottom. They’ll belt their share of home runs regardless of the pitcher.
Meanwhile, Keuchel’s gotten awful run support this year and isn’t likely to get much with Severino pitching on the other side. He’s looked good again in the early going of 2018.
Take the Yankees to jump on the board early against Keuchel who will keep Houston in the game, but bank on Severino and the Yankees’ vaunted bullpen to keep the Astros down enough for the Yankees to take this game on the road.
MLB Odds: Yankees 6, Astros 3
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