The Houston Astros will welcome the New York Yankees to Texas for the first game of a three-game series on Monday night as both teams are looking to turn their early season misfortune around. Many pinned these two teams as the favorites to win it all in the preseason and they’re likely still two of the teams to beat, but the early returns haven’t been favorable for either. With both teams going head-to-head, something has got to give with Monday being a potential turning point for the game’s victor.
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Astros is scheduled for Monday, April 8, 2019, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Astros and Yankees have been rivals of sorts the last couple years, particularly given their 2017 ALCS showdown that went seven games. Houston got the best there, but the Yankees topped the Astros in five of seven games last year. We’ll see who gets the first one of 2019.
Given home field and the slew of injuries to the Yankees—namely on offense—Houston would seem to have an edge.
The Yankees’ offense out homered and outscored Houston last season, but New York has scored just 20 runs in its first six games against bad teams in 2019. Of course, the Astros’ offense isn’t off to a great start either with 15 runs scored in seven games, albeit against a bit better competition.
On the injury front, the Yankees came into the season with Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks on the shelf. Since, then Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar and Troy Tulowitzki have joined them.
The injuries have put Brett Gardner back in an everyday role and he’s struggling out of the gate. Clint Frazier, D.J. LaMahieu and Tyler Wade also find themselves in the everyday lineup. Though Wade could split time with newly promoted Thairo Estrada who has some upside, but is still raw.
Houston’s offense hasn’t been scoring, but it’s still intact. Carlos Correa has looked good since getting back into action which is encouraging. George Springer is hitting well. Outside of them, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Michael Brantley are all going to hit better. It’s just a matter of when.
Probable Pitchers
The pitching matchup on Monday could shake out to be a fun one to watch in this primetime matchup with Masahiro Tanaka and Justin Verlander both in line for the start for their respective teams.
Verlander is a former Cy Young Award winner and MVP who finished second and tenth in those two award balloting a season ago, respectively.
After coming over from the Tigers late in 2017, Verlander had a monster first full year in Houston going 16-8 with a 2.52 ERA in 214 innings. He’s one of the last few pitchers in the majors who give both quality and innings and will be asked to go deep in the game on Monday.
He’s a strikeout pitcher at heart with a league leading 290 last year. It was his fifth time leading the AL in Ks. Even with the high strikeouts, he’s not one to walk too many batters with just 37 last year and a career 2.6 BB:9 ratio.
Despite pitching this season at 36-years old, all signs point to him still being at the top of his game though he is coming off a rough start against the Rangers where he allowed four runs in just four innings. In his first start of the year, however, he held the Rays to one run—on a solo bomb—in seven innings pitched while strikeout out nine.
In his career against the Yankees, Verlander has a 3.49 ERA in 20 appearances which is about as good as it gets in that big of a sample size against the Bronx Bombers. He, however, has owned them in postseason play, including in 2017 when he allowed one run in 16 innings against them to win ALCS MVP honors.
Verlander is one of baseball’s true aces and is much watch when he takes the mound.
On the other side of this matchup, Tanaka was the Yankees’ opening day starter making him a No.1 pitcher, but he’s not quite an ace.
Still, the 30-year old right-hander has had a good career to this point with a .657 winning percentage and 3.56 ERA in parts of six seasons.
Health is a concern for Tanaka has he’s been pitching with a partial tear in his elbow, but has been able to avoid Tommy John surgery. Still, it’s a lingering issue that has to be in the back of the minds of Yankees fans.
Last year, Tanaka was good for a 12-6 record and 3.75 ERA in 156 innings spread over 27 starts. He also had a 1.128 WHIP and 4.01 FIP. He’s not as dominant as Verlander nor as much of a workhorse, but he keeps his team in the game and with the Yankees’ offense, that’s all you need.
Tanaka has historically struggled with the long ball, but done well to minimize walks and force the batter to put the ball in play. Through his first two starts of 2019, he’s yet to allow a home run or walk. He’s gone 12.1 innings, allowing just three runs—two earned—on 14 hits while strikeout out 12. Those number are impressive, but they did come against the Orioles and Tigers.
Against the Astros in his career, Tanaka is 0-2 in five starts against them with 23 runs allowed in 23.1 innings, including giving up nine home runs though he did throw well in the 2017 ALCS, allowing two runs in 13 innings.
That said, the regular season numbers of the current Astros players against Tanaka are staggering with a .349 average and eight home runs in 83 at bats.
Live Betting
Should this game come down to the bullpens, it could be a very interesting matchup to watch. Both the Yankees and Astros have strong pens.
On paper, New York was supposed to have the advantage in the bullpen over everyone in baseball, boasting what some called the best bullpen in baseball history, but the unit is without Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman has struggled a hit early as his velocity has yet to max out.
Meanwhile, Chad Green has taken a loss this season. Still, this is a good group. Despite some disappointment, the pen has a 2.74 ERA as a group, ranking in the top third in all of baseball. Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino have held the opposition scoreless in seven combined innings as well.
For as good as the Yankees’ bullpen has been, the Astros’ pen has been better.
Houston’s group has a 2.08 ERA in 17.1 innings as a unit and have held the opposition to a .169 average with three walks and 25 strikeouts.
Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Will Harris and Hector Rondon in particular have combined to allow no runs, two hits, no walks and 10 strikeouts in 8.1 innings.
MLB Pick
Save the 2017 postseason, the Astros have owned Tanaka and should find success against him again on Monday. Look for Takana to keep the ball in the zone and for the Astros to tee off on a couple, driving them out of the park and grabbing an early lead.
From there, Verlander should limit this depleted Yankees lineup through six or seven frames with a strong Houston bullpen ready to slam the door closed after that and get a much needed win at home.
When fully healthy, these are the two most complete teams—on paper—in baseball, but for now the health of the Yankees and the home field edge for Houston gives the Astros a decided edge.
Look for Houston’s bats to get a few hits and add a couple more runs against the Yankees bullpen which may not turn to the A-Team if down by a couple runs.
Houston gets the win in this one, setting the tone for the three-game series in Minute Maid Park.
MLB Odds: Astros 6, Yankees 3
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