The New York Yankees and Houston Astros are poised for a fun four-game series, a rematch of sorts to the 2017 ALCS where the Astros squeezed by the Yankees in a hard fought seven-game series. This series could be just as close. On the mound, Houston has the apparent advantage—at least to start—with Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. opposite Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. The bullpen, however, is stronger in New York. Both teams though have the offense to overcome good pitching.
The Astros and Yankees kick off a four-game series this week with the first game slated for Monday, April 30, 2018 and the fourth game on Thursday, May 3, 2018. The first three games will start at 8:10 p.m. ET with the series finale starting at 2:10 p.m. ET. All four games will take place at Minute Maid Park and the final three games will be broadcast nationally with ESPN showing Wednesday’s game and Tuesday’s and Thursday’s game broadcast on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
Going into Sunday Night baseball, the Astros had strung together an eight-game winning streak to go from 9-9 to 17-9 and thus ranking amongst the top teams in the AL.
New York’s winning streak took place primarily at home, but they’ve carried their winning ways on the road with a series win over the Angels who were having a strong start to the season and beat the Astros in their last head-to-head series.
Overall, the Yankees have been better at home than on the road, but they’re still an over-.500 team away from the Bronx. Meanwhile, the Astros have a better road record than home record here in the early going and just 3-3 in their last six games.
Despite the lackluster recent results, the Astros did take the last two games by a combined score of 19-4 against the A’s. Houston’s offense may finally be picking up the pace.
The Astros led the AL in scoring last year while the Yankees were the top home run hitting team. New York still possesses more power, but these two lineups should be neck-and-neck in run production as the season progresses. Right now, they’re first and fourth respectively in baseball in runs scored.
A big thing for the Astros’ is Jose Altuve’s power is starting to come around. He didn’t hit his first homer until this week, but is still batting .351 as he and George Springer set the table atop the order for the likes of Carlos Correa who has already driven in 20 runs.
Of course, New York’s shortstop has better numbers than that. Didi Gregorius has been red hot all year. He’s batting .356 with 10 homers and 30 RBIs in his first 26 games. He’s carrying this team while Aaron Judge is doing his share and Giancarlo Stanton is just starting to find his swinging.
Probable Pitchers
Game 1 on the mound easily benefits the Astros who have Charlie Morton on the bump while the Yankees send Sonny Gray to the hill.
Morton lasted only four innings in his last start, allowing four runs and walking five. He had no control and was pulled early. Despite that poor outing, he’s still 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA through 29 innings of work. He’s gone at least six innings in his other four starts and has allowed earned runs in just two of his first five starts.
Morton has become a completely different pitcher since joining the Astros last year and his improvements have been even bigger here in 2018.
We saw in his last start that he can be beat, but he’s still been throwing the ball well enough to chalk the last start up to a bad outing.
Gray, on the other hand, hasn’t been the same pitchers since moving from Oakland to New York. His style doesn’t seem to mesh with the New York philosophy and it’s causing issues. He’s already allowed 18 runs in 21 innings of work over three starts. He’s averaging fewer than five innings a start and is walking nearly seven per nine innings while allow nearly twice as many hits. His WIP is 2.143. It’s hard to win when you allow more than two base runners an inning.
Moving along, Tuesday’s matchup is a bit better with Jordan Montgomery on the hill for New York. The second-year southpaw is the fifth starter for a reason. He’s solid, but lacks the impressive stuff of the rest of the staff. Still, he’s’ 2-0 with a 3.76 ERA which is generally good enough except when you’re matchup against Justin Verlander.
The Astro’s ace has yet to lose a start in the regular season as a member for Houston’s rotation. He’s the single biggest reason Houston won the World Series last year and is 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.731 WHIP through six starts, spanning 39.2 innings here in 2018. He goes deep into games, can tally the strikeouts when needed as apparent by the 48 he’s already recorded.
Verlander is a true ace of the game and while Montgomery is a good arm, he’s hardly up to the same caliber.
It’s Wednesday’s matchup where the starting pitching becomes more balanced. In that game, the Yankees send their own ace to the mound in Luis Severino against the former Houston top starter in Dallas Keuchel.
Keuchel hasn’t been great in 2018. He’s 1-4 due to mediocre pitching and bad run support. His 4.00 ERA is hardly terrible, but he’s not dominating either. In six starts, he’s striking out only 28 in 36 innings. He’s also seen his home run rate jump, allowing six longballs already. That trend doesn’t bode well in a matchup against the power lade Yankee lineup.
As for Severino, Keuchel outpitched him in the ALCS—based on the numbers—but save his first postseason start, Severino proved himself last year and has looked every bit the ace we saw finish third in the Cy Young voting last year. He’s 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in six starts. He’s notched 42 Ks in 38 innings and has given up just two homers and 23 total base hits.
Wrapping up the series, the Yankees will turn to Masahiro Takana opposite Lance McCullers Jr., a battle of two arms with great stuff, but that’ve lacked predictability this year.
Both starters have had good starts and bad starts. McCullers was more consistent last year—save the health issues—but it’s been a choppy start this year. Still, he’s coming off seven scoreless and has allowed two runs in his last three starts. He’s turning things around.
Tanaka, however, is also coming off a good start, allowing just two hits—though one was a homer—in six innings against the Angels. He won’t be staked to as big of a lead in this start though.
Live Betting
In the postseason, we saw just how good the Yankee bullpen can be and they’ve returned the same group of relievers.
New York’s pen is full of excellent arms, but isn’t quite as unbeatable as they looked at times last October.
Jonathan Holder, A.J. Cole and Domingo German fill out the pen with Adam Warren, Tommy Kahnle and Luis Cessa out. If you can get to the pen early, the Yankees—like everyone else—are still vulnerable. The pen is also likely to be involved early with Gray and Montgomery starting the first two games.
Houston may have the more rested pen for the final two games of the series. They, of course, also get a bit more rest coming into the series after the Yankees played a Sunday Night game.
The Astros pen doesn’t have the impressive names, but they’ve getting the job done—save for Joe Smith.
Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Hector Rondon and Brad Peacock have all been great. Ken Giles has only allowed two runs in nine innings as he’s eased back into higher pressure spots.
MLB Pick
This is a four-game series and those can be hard to win, with a split more likely, particularly with two good teams like we have for this series. With the Astros at home, they have the upper hand to take the series.
Houston’s pitching is better, too; at least to start the game. The struggles of Sonny Gray give Houston a good edge to capture the first game of the series and with Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr. dealing right now, they have a good chance at winning at least three.
Look for the Yankees to steal Game 3 with Game 4 the most likely for the Yankees to grab to force the split if they can carry the momentum from Game 3.
Still, look for Houston to get the series win, even against a Yankee lineup that’s heating up and a New York team that’s turning things around.
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