Once again, the New York Yankees are on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball, this time in an interleague showdown against the crosstown rival New York Mets. The Yankees have the better team. The offense is rolling while the Mets—after a hot start—have been reeling for a while. Still, this rivalry matchup brings intrigue, especially considering the amazing pitching matchup with Luis Severino on the mound for the Yankees against Noah Syndergaard who will be coming off the DL to make the start of the Mets.
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Mets is scheduled for Sunday, June 10, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Citi Field. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees come into play having not lost back-to-back games since May 23. They’re a model of consistency, at least since the middle of April. Since a 6-7 start, the team is 34-11.
In much of the opposite situation, the Mets started the year hotter than anyone with a 11-1 record, but the other New York team is 16-31 since.
There’s a lot of things to blame on the Mets’ slide: the starting pitching beyond Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom has been suspect, the bullpen has blown games and the defense has been lackluster with Mickey Calloway looking to shove square pegs in round holes.
Despite all the above issues with the Mets, perhaps the biggest difference between the struggling Mets and the surging Yankees is the offense.
The Mets’ lineup is starting to look more like the pre-trade deadline version of the 2015 team. While that team went to the World Series, they were a terrible offensive club prior to the addition of Yoenis Cespedes.
Speaking of Cespedes, he’s sidelined with a hip flexor issue. He’s nearing a return, but won’t be back until after the Yankee series.
Todd Frazier is back in the lineup after missing time. That helps, but what the team really needs is more than a .230 hitter with some pop back in action. They need Michael Conforto to be an All-Star hitter. Right now, he’s batting .228. Jay Bruce has only three home runs along with a low .224 average. The team is struggling top to bottom outside of Brandon Nimmo and Devin Mesoraco. Even Asdrubal Cabrera—who was the best hitter on the team much of the year—is slumping. In his last seven games, he’s 2-for-27.
While nobody is hitting for the Mets, everyone is swing well for the Bronx Bombers. The new Baby Bombers haven’t gotten Didi Gregorius back on track after his red-hot April, but even without him, this lineup is loaded. Gleybar Torres has been better than the hype so far, Miguel Andujar is hitting .306 through 50 games and Greg Bird is back at first, though Tyler Austin has done a good job holding down the fort.
The Yankees have an above average hitter at every position with solid bench guys as well. In fact, the Yankees’ bench may be better offensively than the Mets’ starting lineup.
While the youngsters have made the Yankees’ lineup so strong top-to-bottom, the Bombers are still getting a good OBP from Brett Gardner, setting the table for Aaron Judge who has 17 homers and a .274/.401/.566 slash line.
Probable Pitchers
A terrible hitting Mets’ team against the second coming of the 1927 Yankees certainly gives one team an advantage, but the heart of this matchup comes down to the men on the hill: Luis Severino and Noah Syndergaard.
Both are dominating young hurlers with the ability to completely shut down any offense whether the meager Mets or Murder’s Row 2.0.
Breaking down the matchup a bit further, we see Severino coming in action off a strong performance against the Tigers while Syndergaard is hopeful he can come back without much rust after not pitching since May 25. He’ll be on three-days rest from a simulated game, but facing live hitters is a completely different experience, especially hitters like the Yankees have in their order.
The Mets will hang their hats on the 25-year old flame throwing right-hander’s 4-1 record and 3.06 ERA this season. He’s already struck out 76 in 64.2 innings and has limited the homers in his career, giving up only 35 in 428.2 innings, that 0.7 longballs per nine innings. Against a powerful team like the Yankees, that’s very important.
Syndergaard has been a strikeout pitcher his whole career, too. He’s already got 494 Ks in 73 games and has a 2.92 career ERA and 2.56 career FIP. There’s no doubt Syndergaard is a beast, but will we see a healthy and effective beast on Saturday? That’s a bit less certain. After all, in one career start against the Yankees, he allowed five runs in six innings of work and took the loss.
Like Syndergaard, Luis Severino is a dominating young hurler. Unlike Syndergaard, the Yankees’ 24-year old right-hander doesn’t have the injury history of Syndergaard or nearly the number of question marks coming into play.
He’s coming off an eight inning, two run performances against Detroit where he struck out 10 batters. Like Syndergaard, he can set them down swinging, striking out 102 in 86 innings here in 2018.
It’s been a monster season for Severino who leads the league in wins and FIP. He’s allowed four home runs in his 13 games and has a 4.86 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s 9-1 with a 2.20 ERA and should be in the conversation for Cy Young, even with Justin Verlander doing his thing in Houston.
As good as Severino’s season numbers are his last 10 games have been the most impressive. He wasn’t quite as good in his first three starts, but since settling in this season, he’s got a 1.85 ERA in his last 10 games.
That’s probably the biggest difference here: Severino’s ironed things out early in the season and Syndergaard will have to iron things out on the fly in this game while coming off the DL.
Live Betting
Severino should have an easier time navigating the Mets’ lineup than Syndergaard will navigating the Yankees’ order. Even if Syndergaard does pitch well, he’ll undoubtedly not last as long as Severino coming back from injury, leaving the bullpen to cover more innings.
Jeurys Fmailia is a lockdown closer, but does that matter if Syndergaard doesn’t leave with the lead? Does that matter if he does, but the guys in the middle cannot hold it?
A.J. Ramos is injured and was bad before the injury. Anthony Swarzak is paid to be the set-up man, but he’s not that far removed from his own injury and has three appearances this year. Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have been the best non-Familia relievers, but can the Mets really trust either of those two against the Yankees?
Aaron Boone has much better options in his pen than Mickey Calloway. Aroldis Chapman has been even better than Familia in the ninth while Chad Green, Adam Warren and others represent a huge upgrade over Lugo and gang in Flushing.
MLB Pick
This is a fun pitching matchup, but the Mets’ offense had trouble against the Orioles rotation earlier this week so they should be completely perplexed against Severino and the elite Yankee bullpen.
The Mets are not playing good baseball. They’re struggling defensively and offensively. The starters are the only thing keeping this team partially afloat as the bullpen has been suspect as well.
Look for baseball’s best offense to crack the arm of Syndergaard who almost has to show signs of rust, at least early. While Syndergaard is one of the best pitchers in the league, even he will struggle against the Bronx Bombers.
Look for the Yankees to scratch across a couple runs against Thor and then add on against the bullpen while Severino cruises against the Mets. The team for Flushing could score a run or two at home, but it won’t be enough against the Yankees who should win this primetime showdown rather handily.
MLB Odds: Yankees 7, Mets 2
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