The first iteration of the 2018 Subway Series between the New York Yankees and New York Mets kicks off in Flushing on Friday with a weekend series at Citi Field. This interleague rivalry has created several memorable moments and both teams always get up for the series even if they’re not each at the top of their game. That’s certainly the case this year as the Mets are reeling, but the Yankees are cruising.
The subway series pitting the Yankees against the Mets is scheduled to start on Friday, June 8, 2018 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. The two teams will play on Saturday and Sunday evening as well. All three matchups will be broadcast nationally with Friday’s game on MLB Network, Saturday’s on FOX and Sunday’s shown on ESPN.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Mets come into this series having lost six in a row and having dropped to five games under-.500, their worst record of the year.
New York started its season so promising, going 11-1, but have gone 16-31 since that start. They’ve lost nearly twice as many as they’ve won in nearly two months’ worth of games. That’s a fair sample size.
It’s the offense that’s been the biggest trouble spot for the Mets in this epic slide. They’re ranked second to last in the NL in runs scored with 231, that’s 94 fewer than the Yankees have scored. Breaking it down further, the Mets have scored just seven runs in their last six games. It’s getting bad.
The Mets are without Yoenis Cespedes who is the spark plug to this offense. They’ve recently gotten back Todd Frazier, but he’s only hitting .229. Meanwhile, Michael Confroto is batting .232, Jay Bruce is hitting .229 with only three homers and Asdrubal Cabrera has been the best bat, though even he’s seen his batting average drop over the last couple weeks.
Right now, Brandon Nimmo may be the best hitter on this team, and while Nimmo’s done well taking advantage of opportunities, he’s hardly enough to lead this team out of its offensive funk.
The Mets will go against pitchers that they should be able to score against, but with their struggles, the Yankees’ hurlers could breeze through this series. That’s unfortunate because with the Yankees’ offense, there is always a chance for a high scoring affair.
The other New York leads baseball in runs scored, home runs, OPS and OBP. The Yankees have patient hitters who can hit the ball a long, long ways.
The Bronx Bombers are a bit right-handed heavy with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez, but Greg Bird is back to split up the righties. Didi Gregorius also bats from the left side. He hasn’t been the same hitter since April, but he’s still a dangerous bat.
Overall, the Yankees are just an extremely deep offense. From Brett Gardner at the top with his .357 OBP to the slugging rookies like Miguel Andujar, Gleybar Torres and Tyler Austin at the bottom, this team can hit.
Probable Pitchers
The struggling Mets do have their best lined up for this series with Jacob deGrom slated for Friday, Steven Matz on tap for Saturday and Noah Syndergaard projected to come off the DL to make the start on Sunday night.
To combat that threesome, the Yankees have Masahiro Tanaka in rotation for Friday’s start with Luis Severino in line for Saturday. While the Yankees haven’t announced any of the starters for the series, the first two are lined up based on the rotation, but the day off on Thursday makes Sunday’s starter more of a question. It would be Domingo German’s turn in the order, but the Yanks could skip him and go with C.C. Sabathia on regular rest.
Regardless of who throws Sunday, the Mets would appear to have the advantage on paper in two of the three matchups. Severino is better than Matz, but deGrom and Syndergaard—if they’re on their games—are hard to top.
Speaking of deGrom, he goes Friday against Tanaka and brings a 0.57 ERA to the mound over his last eight starts. In that span, he’s thrown 47.1 innings and posted a 68:15 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in his 12 starts this season, but the Mets are just 5-7 when he takes the mound. Even with no run support, he’s been one of the best starters in the league.
Of course, his past success against the Yankees hasn’t been as good. He’s only faced them a few times, but is 1-4 with a 4.10 ERA.
On the other side, Tanaka comes into action with an inflated 4.79 ERA. He, however, is 7-2 thanks to amazing run support in much the opposition situation as deGrom. While Tanaka’s ERA is high, his WHIP is just 1.138. He’s struggling with the home run, giving up 15 in 12 starts, but isn’t walking too many and is otherwise keeping runners off base. He could allow a bomb or two against the Mets, but if they’re solo shots, it’s not that big of an issue.
As the series progresses, Matz will have the biggest challenge of the Mets’ hurlers going opposite Severino.
Matz is 2-4 with a 3.42 ERA, but has really been two different pitchers this year. In April, the southpaw was 1-2 with a 4.98 ERA. Since then, he’s still just 1-2, but has a 2.32 ERA and has pitched much better, allowing fewer homers has been the main difference. He’s also striking out less, pitching more to weak contact.
This, of course, is not a favorable matchup for Matz even now that he’s pitching better. As a lefty, he’ll have to go against the stacked righty bats in the Yankees’ order. He’s also just 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA against the Bronx Bombers in three career starts.
Severino, on the other hand, is 2-0 in his career against the Mets, not allowing a single run in two career starts.
The righty is also doing an excellent job building off a 2017 where he was third in the Cy Young voting. Here in 2018, he’s 9-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.930 WHIP. He’s tossed 86 innings, striking out 102, walking only 21 and allowing just four home runs. The Mets cannot manufacture runs and the Yankees’ hurler doesn’t allow long balls. This could be another shutout on the way for the Mets.
Finally, the series wraps up with Syndergaard making his triumphant return from the DL, or so the Mets hope.
The flame throwing righty last pitched on May 25 and although he threw a simulated game on Tuesday, there’s nothing like facing live Major League hitters.
He is having another great season with a 4-1 record and 3.06 ERA in 11 starts. His low home run rate and 1.175 WHIP have led him to a 2.56 FIP. He’s an ace when he’s on his game, but he could be a bit rusty.
As for his counterpart, whether German slated or Sabathia, the Yankees have a talent gap. The veteran Sabathia is having a good season and could easily shutdown the Mets. He’s not Syndergaard, but he’s got a 3.59 ERA in 11 starts and knows out to pitch, get outs and get out of trouble. Given the Mets’ dismal offense, that’s probably enough for a great start.
As for German, he’s got electric stuff, he just cannot control it. Of course, if the Mets are pressing, it might not matter.
Live Betting
Can the Yankees offense beat the strong starters of the Mets? Can the Mets bats break out in any way against the Yankee hurlers to give their pitchers some help?
These are the main questions and they’re mostly desperate asks for the Mets to help make this a compelling series.
The Mets have the starting pitching to compete, but the bats aren’t there and the relief core isn’t there either.
The Mets bullpen has the third worst ERA in the NL. Anthony Swarzak has been injured, but is back. He could help bridge the gap to Jeurys Familia, but the bullpen is still shallow and with the strength of the Yankee offense, that could pose a problem.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have enough depth to send a struggling Tommy Kahnle out. A.J. Cole and Jonathan Holder have out pitched him so far.
Of course, if the Mets’ hitters cannot have better at bats than they have over the last week, it won’t matter who is in the bullpen. Still, it’s a lot easier to try and find your way in the seventh against a random middle reliver than someone like Chad Green.
MLB Pick
The Yankees are the better team. They should take this series, even on the road.
While the Mets are sending their best three starters to the hill in this series, having the starting pitching advantage—at least on paper—in the first and last game, the Yankees have the superior offense. The Mets’ bats have gone silent and their bullpen is a big step down from that of the Bronx Bombers as well.
The Mets might be able to grab a game in this series at home, but they are coming off a two-game sweep at the hands of the Orioles who don’t have nearly as good an offense, bullpen or even rotation as the Yankees. And while deGrom has been lights out lately, that hasn’t resulted in many wins for the Mets in those games, they’re under-.500 when he starts despite his microscopic ERA.
Look for the Mets’ offense to fall flat and the Yankees’ bats to do enough against the starters and plenty of damage against the bullpen in route to a series win. A series sweep is not out of the realm of possibility with how much the Mets’ bats are struggling.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
