There’s still a month of baseball to play, but the AL postseason seems all but decided and if everything stays the way it is, this series opener between the New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics could be a preview of the AL Wild Card matchup though that is likely played in the Bronx rather than out by the bay in Oakland. Even so, this will be an intriguing matchup and one worth following between the league’s biggest Cinderella Story and its favorite villain on Labor Day.
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Athletics is scheduled for Monday, September 3, 2018, at 4:05 p.m. ET at the Oakland Coliseum. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees lead the A’s by 4.5 games in the Wild Card standings and figure to host the Wild Card game as a result, but these two teams are closely matched.
Over the last 10 games, the Yankees have one extra win, but since June 17, the A’s have been playing with their hair on fire, going 46-18. That’s no joke. Since that time, there hasn’t been a better team the Oakland. The offense is key in that.
The Yankees have more runs scored, more home runs and a better OPS this year than Oakland, but the A’s rank just a couple spots behind New York in most those categories. In the second half, things are even close with the two teams neck-and-neck in most offensive categories. The A’s have the edge in homers over New York. Of course, Aaron Judge being on the DL certainly helps.
Judges will remain sidelined on Monday, but the Bronx Bombers are expecting to get Didi Gregorius back for the series. Gary Sanchez will be back, too.
Those extra bats certainly help deepen a lineup that was trying to piece things together at the bottom of the order. Even without Judge, Gregorius’s return puts five players in the lineup with 20 homers.
For the A’s, Matt Chapman has been playing exceptional baseball lately, on both sides of the ball. He’s hitting .282 with a .892 OPS, 21 homers and 32 doubles. Meanwhile, he may not even be the best bat on the team. Khris Davis has a league leading 39 homers and has driven in 103 in the middle of the order. From there Stephen Piscotty has been swinging well, Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie and Mark Cahna all represent above average bats.
Another key player of late for the surging A’s has been young centerfielder Ramon Laureano. The 23-year old has only played in 21 games, but he’s hitting .305 with a couple homers and has been playing elite defense.
Probable Pitchers
The A’s have been piecing together their rotation all year long, but recently injuries to Sean Manaea and Brett Anderson certainly don’t help the cause.
Trevor Cahill is lined up to make the start for Oakland after Frankie Montas and Daniel Mengden filled in for Manaea and Anderson this time through the order.
Cahill last pitched on Wednesday night and was exposed against the Astros, allowing four runs—three earned—in 3.1 innings. He threw 81 pitches while only recording 10 outs in the game. It was his second straight rough outing after he allowed five runs in five innings in a loss to the Twins his start prior.
Prior to his last two starts, Cahill was having a fantastic season for the A’s, pitching to a 3.12 ERA and the team was 10-5 in his 15 starts. They’re 0-2 in his last two outings and his ERA is up to 3.60.
Cahill’s still got strong numbers this year, but it seemed unlikely Cahill’s success would last. The veteran right-hander has some good seasons under his belt, but the last time he had an ERA below 4.90 while getting more than handful of starters was back in 2013. That said, the peripherals do suggest Cahill can bounce back to maintain a solid pitching line this year. He’s got a 3.27 FIP and 1.168 WHIP. He’s not walking that many batters and has been very good at avoiding too much hard contact. In fact, he’s only allowed six homers in 95 innings.
While the 30-year old righty isn’t exactly an ace pitcher, he may very well be the best the A’s can offer now that Manaea is on the shelf.
Moving to the Yankees, they’re likely to give the ball to C.C. Sabathia who took the loss against the White Sox in his last start.
The 38-year old southpaw notched a quality start in his second start back off the DL, but still took the loss. He allowed three runs in six innings.
The A’s represent a significant offensive upgrade over the team’s he’s pitched against lately his last four starts have come against the White Sox, Rangers, Orioles and White Sox again. Sabathia’s last start against a winning team, the Red Sox, lasted just three innings. His last quality start against a winning team was back on July 4.
The lefty doesn’t go deep in games much anymore, but overall, he still keeps the Bronx Bombers close. He’s 7-5 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.272 WHIP. He’s reinvented himself as a grizzled veteran. His stuff is a shadow of what it once was, but he’s learned to get by with it. He’s not an ace. He won’t overpower a lineup, but he’s a knowledgeable pitcher, much like Cahill, just with a much more illustrious track record.
Live Betting
Aroldis Chapman is on the disabled list for the Yankees which depletes their bullpen a bit. On the year, New York holds the edge over the A’s bullpen with a 3.11 ERA to Oakland’s 3.30, but the two teams are close enough that a big loss like Chapman can swing things the other way.
New York does still have Chad Green, David Robertson, Zach Britton and Dellin Betances all pitching well right now. The four can be used in any order, depending on how the lineup stacks up, but New York and trim the game to six innings with those arms.
Of course, the A’s can do something similar and they added Jeurys Familia, Fernando Rodney and Shawn Kelly within the last month or so which helps close the minimal gap in ERA between these teams.
Those three along with Lou Trivino, Yusmerio Petit and Ryan Buchter give the A’s a plethora of set up options to closer Blake Treinen who with a 0.95 ERA and 1.77 FIP may be having the best season of any reliever in the AL. With Chapman out, the argument can be made that the A’s pen is the deeper one right now.
MLB Pick
If you ignore the media bias towards the Yankees and the much higher payroll, the A’s and Yankees are eerily similar teams, particularly in this game where they’re both sending a veteran arm—with their best days behind them—to the mound.
Offensively, both teams can rake, and things are closer with the injuries to in the Yankee lineup. In the bullpen, the additions of Famila and Rodney make the A’s deep, much like the Yankees.
In this game, look for it to come down to the wire for these teams and, if that’s the case, take the hometown A’s to pull out the win.
Both Sabathia and Cahill can keep their team in the game. Sure, Cahill has struggled recently, but Sabathia hasn’t been lighting the world on fire either. He’s just been getting by thanks to weaker competition. Neither starter figures to factor in the game beyond five or six frames.
With both pitchers pitching well enough and both offenses chugging along, this one comes down to the bullpen and with Aroldis Chapman out, give the edges to the A’s who will have the luxury of batting last in the ninth. This could be one of those games that ends in a walk off.
MLB Odds: Athletics 7, Yankees 6
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