This New York Yankees’ team is the best we’ve seen in years and could be the best since 2009 when the Bronx Bombers last won the World Series. New York won that series over the Philadelphia Phillies. They’ll face Philadelphia in a three game interleague series in the City of Brotherly Love starting on Monday. Both these teams have been remade since their last battled in the Fall Classic, but both are in contention here in 2018 and bring plenty of youthful exuberance.
First game for the series between the Yankees and Phillies is scheduled for Monday, June 25, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. The first game of the series will be broadcast nationally on MLB Network with the final two games shown locally.
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Odds Analysis
The Phillies were not supposed to compete this year, but they’ve won six of seven heading into Sunday to improve to second in the NL East.
Philadelphia is only a little removed from a stretch that saw them lose seven of eight, but the team didn’t falter and has bounced back nicely. They’ve won four straight series now, all against contenders including the Rockies, Brewers, Cardinals and Nationals. Now they’ll have their biggest test to date against the Yankees.
Speaking of the Yankees, this Yankees team had been rolling until falling in a series against the Rays in the first leg of a two-city road trip. They’ll need a series win against the Phillies to salvage the trip, but can the Yankees’ bounce back from this little hiccup?
The Yankees issues in Tampa Bay were primarily offensive, scored one run total in the first two games of the series. That will not last.
New York’s offense is the best in baseball with a .789 team OPS. They team is also first in homers with 122 and have a .329 OBP as a unit. The Phillies have good pitching, but it’s unlikely an offense as good as the Yankees will be kept at bay for too long.
Even with Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird hitting below the Mendoza Line, the Yankees still have one of the deepest lineups in recent memory. From Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton to the youngsters like Gleybar Torres and Miguel Andjuar, this team has seven players with at least 10 homers and six with an OBP of at least .330. The Yankees can both get people on base and drive them in. Of course, playing this series in a NL park will require one of the outfielders to sit as Judge and Stanton will both have to play the field—or ride the bench—without a DH spot.
Philadelphia’s offense, unfortunately, just doesn’t quite stack up.
The Phillies’ success has largely been attributable to their rotation. The offense has been good enough to support the pitching, but isn’t exactly winning games on its own.
Now, Odubel Herrera is going into this series red hot and has had a big season all around with a .304/.357/.500 slash line, but those numbers are merely in line with several slash lines of key Yankee hitters. Meanwhile, Herrera clearly stands ahead of his Philadelphia peers with those numbers.
Herrera isn’t alone as the only quality bat for the Phillies. Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins and Cesar Hernandez are good hitters, too, but the Phillies still have a much lower team OPS, fewer homers and fewer runs scored than the Yankees, due largely to more holes in the order.
Probable Pitchers
The series kicks off on Monday with a rookie righthander on the mound for the Yankees in Jonathan Loaisiga opposite Vince Velasquez for the Phillies.
After a hiccup on June 8, Velasquez has been great in back-to-back starts. In fact, the young right-hander took a no-hitter into the seventh against the Rockies on June 14 and followed that up with a strong 6.1 inning showing against the Cardinals his last time out.
There’s no question that Velasquez has electric stuff, but command and control sometime get in the way of his success. His prone to the occasional stinker which has led to him having an inflated 4.82 ERA despite a 3.79 FIP.
The righty is 5-7 overall and though his 97 strikeouts in 80.1 innings are impressive, he’s yet to learn how to be pitch efficient. He typically is limited to five or six innings and a hefty pitch count as he sometimes struggles with walks and the long ball, allowing a team high 12 homers.
For the Phillies, there’s hope that he continues pitching well as he has his last two starts, but it basically comes down to which Velasquez takes the mound.
For the Yankees, Loaisiga has made two starts and has already had mixed results. New York is 2-0 when he takes the ball, but he’s coming off a 3.2 innings performance against the Mariners where he allowed three runs, six hits and two walks. Aaron Boone pulled him before things got too bad, however. Boone will likely have another short hook with the youngster if things to awry on Monday.
The premium pitching matchup of the series comes in the middle game when Luis Severino will match up against Jake Arrieta in the battle of the aces.
Severino comes into play with a 11-2 record and 2.24 ERA to go along with a 2.33 FIP and 0.965 WHIP. He’s thrown a team high 104.2 innings as he’s providing the Bronx Bombers innings. Helping to keep the opposition in check, Severino has allowed just six homers and 26 walks while striking out 123.
Despite the gaudy numbers, Severino is coming off a lackluster performance in his last start. Of course, that’s a bit relative as he still got the win, going 5.2 innings. He just allowed a season high eight hits and recorded a season low five strikeouts. Even so, he still got the job done.
Arrieta will take the ball with a 5-5 record and 3.42 ERA. He’s not exactly matching Aaron Nola for the Phillies, but he’s having a fine season nonetheless. He was absolutely lights out in May, but has regressed some here in June.
In fact, Arrieta has allowed 16 runs in 20.2 innings spread over four starts. The Phillies are 1-3 in those four starts while Arrieta himself is 0-3. He did throw a quality start in his last start, but still gave up two home runs and three runs total in six frames. After giving up two homers in his first 10 games, he’s now allowed five homers in his last four games, a poor trend when getting ready to take on a power packed lineup in the Yankees.
To wrap up the series, the Yankees have another fill-in starter slated to get the nod with Luis Cessa getting his first start of the season. He pitched well in four relief appearances before getting the start, but the 26-year old is 2-7 with a 4.54 ERA in 14 career starts. He allowed two runs in six innings of relief so far in the big leagues this year.
Cessa will likely matchup against Zach Eflin, although the Phillies have yet to confirm. Eflin is quietly having a breakout season now that he’s finally healthy.
The 24-year old right-hander didn’t make the opening day rotation, but has now made nine starts and is 5-2 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.168 WHIP. He’s striking out 9.2 per nine innings way up from his numbers in 2016 and 2017 when he struggled mightily in a pair of 11 start trials.
The righty is also allowing fewer homers and hits. Some of that is a result of fewer balls put in play, but he’s also locating better in the zone for the balls that the opposition does make contact against. Those aren’t being hit as hard—or as far.
While Eflin hasn’t been one go to deep in games, he has recorded four straight wins and has allowed just six runs on 20 hits in his four starts here in June.
Live Betting
The last key factor to examine between these two teams in this series is the bullpen which clearly favors the Yankees based on the numbers.
New York’s bullpen ranks third in baseball—and second in the AL—with a 2.77 ERA. The .200 opponent batting average against the NY pen and 338 strikeouts recorded by the bullpen both rank first in all of baseball.
While the Yankees’ unit is elite, the Philadelphia pen, much like the offense, is much shallower in options when compared to the Yankees.
The Yankees can overcome a short outing by a starter and still win. They showed that last year in the postseason and have basically the same bullpen. Aroldis Chapman is lights out with a 1.07 ERA, shortening the game to eight innings. From there, Chad Green, David Robertson and Dellin Betances all have back-of-the-bullpen stuff. Meanwhile, that doesn’t even factor in Jonathan Holder and Adam Warren who have a 2.00 and 1.84 ERA respectively while combining for 41.2 innings. Even New York’s middle inning guys have great numbers.
For the Phillies, they’ve demoted their closer and now have Seranthony Dominguez in the ninth inning. He’s been filthy in 23.1 innings. He has a 1.54 ERA to go along with 31 strikeouts. Meanwhile, he’s walked just three, forcing the opponent to get on base.
Helping set up Dominguez is Edubray Ramos, another surprising youngster. Ramos has allowed just two runs—on two solo homers—in 28.1 innings of work. He’s walked a few more than Dominguez, but has been impenetrable with the game on the line.
Beyond those two, however, the numbers are much more pedestrian. The team bullpen ERA is 4.05.
MLB Pick
This should be a tough matchup for both teams. The Yankees are the better team on paper, but the Phillies have the better rotational matchups.
Look for the Yankees to steal the middle game behind a great effort by Severino. They’ll take advantage of a struggling Arrieta to get the win. With how well both Velasquez and Eflin are pitching, look for both to give the Phillies a good chance to win, leaving their respective games with the lead. They’re facing fill-in starters for the Yankees, giving them an edge.
Who wins the series could come down to just how deep Velasquez and Eflin can go in their games. The Phillies’ bullpen has a couple intriguing young arms throwing th eball very well, but there are also some significant question marks in the middle innings.
Overall, look for the Yankees to steal this series on the road, take advantage of a couple pitchers who don’t typically go deep in games.
The Phillies should still get a win, but look for the Yankees offense and bullpen to pull out two-out-of-three despite the starting pitching disadvantage in two games.
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