Trying to keep their ever so slim playoff hopes alive, the Seattle Mariners kickoff a tough series at home against the AL Wild Card leading New York Yankees on Friday night. Seattle’s been slowly falling out of the postseason picture over the last couple months and need to make a statement with a big series win. The Mariners are set to put their best foot forward to start this series as they send James Paxton to the mound for this series opener. The Yankees are expected to counter with Masahiro Tanaka.
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Mariners is scheduled for Friday, September 7, 2018, at 10:10 p.m. ET at Safeco Field. The matchup will be televised on the applicable regional networks.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees have a much better record and much better run differential than the Mariners, and in their only three head-to-head games this year, New York showed dominance, sweeping the series while scoring 18 runs.
The New York offense is one of the best in the game, ranking second to the Red Sox in runs scored, but first in baseball in homers with 227. The Yankee offense is potent, but it is a bit homer-centric.
Right now, the Yankees are missing Aaron Judge, but the team did pick up Andrew McCutchen to pick up some slack until Judge returns. Few teams other than the Yankees and Brian Cashman could swing a deal for a former MVP merely as an insurance policy for a few weeks.
With McCutchen in the fold along with the returns of Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius, the lineup is starting to look stacked again. That’s especially true with Luke Voit swinging a red-hot bat at first base, getting at-bats ahead of the struggling Greg Bird and disappointing Neil Walker.
All told, Judge or no Judge, the Yankee lineup is deep and powerful. They have last year’s Major League leader in home runs with 33 jacks as one of six different players over 20.
On the other side of this matchup, the Mariners have a slightly higher batting average than the Yankees, but they’ve hit 74 fewer home runs, scored 143 fewer runs and have a team OPS 57-points lower.
Nelson Cruz continues to mash despite his advancing age. Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura and Denard Span all have been swinging the bats, but Robinson Cano’s return hasn’t helped get this team back on track. Meanwhile, falling out of the playoff race seems to be impacting moral as there was a clubhouse brawl around Segura and Dee Gordon whose offensive numbers, despite 30 steals, have been incredibly pedestrian.
Probable Pitchers
The Mariners will be sending their ace to the mound in this Friday night showdown as Paxton makes his 26th start of the year. Paxton did well in his last start against another likely Wild Card winner, going five innings and strikeout out 10 in route to a Seattle win over the Oakland A’s.
Overall, the 29-year old southpaw is 11-5 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in 25 starts this season. He’s tallied 144.1 innings of work while striking out 186. He’s been a big strikeout pitcher this year which, along with a low walk rate and reasonable home rate, has led to a solid 3.16 FIP.
On the year, Paxton does have a no-hitter as well as another complete game and the Mariners are 15-10 overall when he takes the ball although they’ve gone just 3-5 in his last eight starts.
Seattle took the loss in Paxton’s lone start against the Yankees this year as he allowed four runs in five innings to the Bronx Bombers, giving up a pair of home runs. One of the homers was hit by Aaron Judge who remains on the DL. That’s at least some good news for the Seattle ace.
Paxton’s bad outing against the Yankees came on the road where his ERA is a full run higher than at home. At home, he’s pitching to a 3.21 ERA and 0.986 WHIP. He’ll hope that makes the difference this time around against New York.
On the other side of the pitching matchup, the Yankees have yet to announce their starter for the game, but it would be Tanaka’s turn in the rotation.
The 29-year old Tanaka has been a good overall performer for New York this year, going 10-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 134 innings spread over 23 starts. Those numbers are comparable to Paxton’s though the right-hander has been far from consistent.
Over his career, Tanaka has had trouble pitching on the road, particularly last year. This year, it’s a different story; his ERA is better on the road than at home. He’s 6-0 in 13 starts away from Yankee Stadium with a 3.67 ERA. He’s allowed more homers, but has a better walk rate, better hit rate and more strikeouts on the road.
Tanaka didn’t get a start when the Yankees played the Mariners earlier this year, but for his career, he’s 6-0 with a 2.34 ERA in seven starts against them, including going 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA at Safeco Field.
In the more recent past, he’s coming off a seven-inning, one-run start against Detroit and has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last nine starts. On the opposite side of the spectrum, he combined to allow 10 runs in 12 innings in the other two starts.
Live Betting
The Mariners have nine more saves than the Yankees, nearly all of them coming from Edwin Diaz who leads the majors with 52. The All-Star closer has a 1.90 ERA and 0.784 WHIP. He’s been nasty when given the chance to close out the game, striking out 115 batters in just 66.1 innings of work.
Diaz has gotten a ton of save chances as the Mariners are seemingly always in a close game. He’s a big reason the team’s exceeded their run differential by so much, closing out the close games and giving Seattle the win at an impressive rate when the game is on the line.
All of that is nice and with Aroldis Chapman on the DL, Seattle may have the edge in the ninth inning, but the rest of the bullpen favors the Yankees. Alex Colome is a good setup man, but former Yankee Adam Warren has struggled in Seattle. Meanwhile, Zach Duke has been even worse.
As for the Yankees, Zach Britton is starting to look better in pinstripes after a slow start to his Yankee career. He’s getting a chance to pitch in a setup role to David Robertson and Dellin Betances who are getting the save chances in Chapman’s absence.
Even without Chapman, this pen is incredibly deep with Betances, Britton, Robertson, Chad Green, Jonathan Holder and A.J. Cole amongst others that’ve been added with the expanded rosters.
If the Mariners get to the ninth inning with the lead, this game is as good as over, but if it becomes a battle of the bullpens, the Yankees will win more times than not. After all, they’ve got the third best bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.17.
MLB Pick
This should be a well-pitched game on Friday night. Tanaka has pitched his best on the road this year and has dominated the Mariners in his career. That should give him confidence going in. He’s also pitched well overall in his last nine starts.
Count on Tanaka to go six strong innings against the Mariners before turning the ball over to a deep Yankee bullpen to close things out.
Offensively, look for the Yankees to get a few runs against Paxton. They got to him when they faced him earlier this year and still have a ton of power even without Judge in the lineup.
From there count on the Bronx Bombers to add on against a bullpen that’s top heavy with Diaz and Colome, neither of whom figure to factor in the game unless Seattle has the lead.
MLB Odds: Yankees 5, Mariners 3
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