The Tampa Bay Rays currently sit atop the AL East standings, but the New York Yankees have done an excellent job navigating a plethora of injuries to keep their heads more than a float in the early going. Now these teams will meet in a weekend series down in the Sunshine State. The series wraps up with an afternoon showdown on Sunday. The Rays have home field advantage, but the Yankees do have a massive following in the Tampa area and will be well represented in the stands as always.
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Rays is scheduled for Sunday, May 12, 2019, at 1:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field. The matchup will be shown on MLB Network.
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Odds Analysis
The Rays and Yankees played each other tough last season with New York barely edging out Tampa Bay in the 19-game season series, 10-9.
While the wins were close, New York had a massive edge in runs scored which isn’t surprising given the depth of their offense last year.
Injuries, however, have ravaged the lineup so far this year. Brett Gardner has become a middle of the order hitter out of necessity and Luke Voit leads the team in RBI and ranks second in homers.
While the replacements for the Yankees have been remarkable and a true testament to the depth on this team, this isn’t the same dominating lineup that mashed against Tampa Bay last year. So far in 2019, the Yankees are sixth in the AL in runs scored and sport a .777 team OPS, just barely ahead of the Rays’ .771 mark.
The Yankees still have more power than Tampa Bay, hitting 13 more home runs to date, but the two teams have identical averages and OBPs. The Rays are also a more prolific doubles and triples hitting team, showing more speed.
Probable Pitchers
It almost doesn’t matter who is pitching for the Rays, you expect a well-pitched game, but it certainly doesn’t hurt that they have the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner slated to make the start.
Blake Snell hasn’t been unhittable yet this year, but it’s telling when a 3-3 record with a 3.62 ERA is a slow start. Compared to last year, it certainly is. Snell was 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.974 WHIP in 31 games last season and completely dominated the competition. This year, he’s got better rates in strikeouts and walks, but has been hit a bit harder.
The young southpaw was rocked for seven runs in three innings against Kansas City a couple starts ago, but came back with his best outing of the year last time out, holding a good offensive team in the Diamondbacks scoreless in six innings. He allowed just one hit and no walks in that game, striking out nine.
Against Arizona, he showed the kind of stuff that made him nearly unhittable at times last year and will look to carry that momentum into the game against the Yankees. In his career, he’s been okay against the Bronx Bombers, going 3-4 with a 4.37 ERA. He threw five scoreless inning against the Yankees the last time he faced them back in August, but New York still got to him in his other two starts against them last year. Overall, he allowed nine runs in 8.1 innings in those two starts.
For as good as Snell is, he’s shown issues with the Yankees. We’ll see if this depilated lineup can get to him.
In the meantime, the Yanks will look for Masahiro Tanaka to go toe-to-toe with Snell and try and shutdown a very good Rays’ lineup.
Tanaka comes into the game with a 2-3 record, but a solid 3.77 ERA. He’s been a very effective pitcher for the Yankees over the course of his Major League career and is, arguably, their best active pitcher with James Paxton and Luis Severino on the IL.
In the veteran right-handers’ last start, he lasted 6.1 innings against the Mariners, allowing two runs and collecting his fourth quality start of the year.
In general, Tanaka gives the Yankees a chance to win when he takes the bump, but his last few starts do raise a few red flags as he’s allowed 10 runs in his last three starts, spanning just 16 innings.
Live Betting
Aaron Hicks is coming off the IL for this series, but isn’t a good bet to do much on Sunday. He’s just 1-for-10 in his career against Snell and he’s not alone.
While Snell has had issues against New York in his career, the current Yankees have a .196 career average against him. That said, keep an eye on Gary Sanchez, he’s one of few exceptions as he’s got three homers and five walks.
The current Rays roster has a .309 average against Tanaka. Avisail Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier, and Mike Zunino are the only ones with more than a dozen at bats against him and all three are hitting over .300.
Should this game come down to the bullpens, it could be a long night. These are two very good pens though the overall numbers favor the Rays with a 3.31 ERA to a 4.27 mark for the Yankees.
Still, the Yankees have Aroldis Chapman as a shutdown option in the ninth while Adam Oattavino has proven to be a huge pick up. Even Luis Cessa and Tommy Kahnle are pitching well, the latter looking like its 2017 again.
Meanwhile, for the Rays, the tandem of Diego Castillo and Jose Alvarado in the latter innings is about as good as it comes.
MLB Pick
Look for the Rays to wrap up their first series of the year against the Yankees with a win behind their ace.
Tampa Bay doesn’t look like the best team on paper, but they’re first in the division and have the best run differential in the sport. This team can pitch. They play excellent defense. They have great fundamentals. And, the team is a much better hitting team than most like to give them credit.
Look for the Rays to manufacture a couple early runs against Tanaka who has struggled a bit in his last few starts. Tampa Bay has a versatile offense that can score many different ways, making them a difficult team to pitch against.
They’ll get a couple on Tanaka and get him out relatively early as he’s not been one to eat up innings. While the Yankees’ bullpen is good, they’re not as unbeatable as they were billed to be in the offseason and the Rays can add on a few to pad their lead.a
On the other side, Snell’s struggled with the Yankees in the past, but this isn’t exactly the same dominant offense. Look for some of the returning players to struggle as they get back into game speed. Snell looked like his old self last time out and should get into the seventh. The bullpen will then be tasked with holding the lead.
Take the home team to grab the win at BookMaker.eu.
MLB Odds: Rays 5, Yankees 4
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