With the New York Yankees’ series against the Nationals washed away, the Yankees head south to Texas to take on the Texas Rangers and kick off the final leg of what’s become a soft six and a partial game road trip. As a friendly greeting to the Lone Star State, the Yankees will be meet by old-friend Bartolo Colon who starts for the Rangers opposite Masahiro Tanaka for New Yorkers.
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Rangers is scheduled for Monday, May 21, 2017, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees have won 19 of 22 games and are on a roll heading into the road trip and the strength of the offense has been on full display during that run.
New York booed Giancarlo Stanton in the first weeks of the season, but he’s now one of four players with at least 10 homers and has a .255/.344/.516 slash line. Of course, that still puts him behind the likes of Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius and even Gleybar Torres with a 126 OPS+, but that just goes to show how deep this lineup is.
Gregorius carries the Yankees lineup through April. May has been a struggle for him, but the rest of the order has picked up the slack around him. That includes Torres and Miguel Andujar, two rookies that are now playing every day on either side of Gregorius.
The youngster have been so good that it forced the Yankees to option Brandon Drury. This team is deep. There’s no other way to say it. Texas isn’t so lucky.
The Rangers are playing without Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus. They’ve got only one well-rounded hitter and he’s a 23-year old in Nomar Mazara. Mazara’s hitting .279 with 10 homers and has a .844 OPS, but has shown over his brief Major League career to be a streaky hitter. He’s just two for his last 18 and if that’s the start of a slump for Mazara, that could leave the Rangers in a major offensive funk.
If Tanaka or a reliever misses his spots, Joey Gallo can hit one out. He’s hit 13 homers, but he’s also struck out 61 times and is hitting .200. He’s an easy out if you hit your spots.
The same can be said for many Rangers’ hitters which is why the Rangers rank tenth in runs scored in the AL while the Yankees are first. It’s also why they’re 60-runs behind New York despite playing three more games.
Probable Pitchers
Just a couple days ahead of his 45th birthday, Bartolo Colon just keeps chugging along. In fact, he’s already produced 1.7 WAR according to Baseball Reference.
It’s the Yankees that should get credit for rejuvenating Colon’s career. It’s been seven years now, but it was New York that gave him a job in 2011 after he made just 19 combined starts in his age 35 and 36 season before sitting out all of 2010.
He came back, pitched well in the Bronx, and the rest is history.
Colon, now five organizations later, is put together another comeback season. Almost out of baseball last year after pitching to an 8.14 ERA through 13 starts in Atlanta, he got another look in Minnesota and ended with a 6.48 ERA.
Somehow, opportunity came knocking and—to this point—Colon has delivered.
The ageless right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.843 WHIP in 51 innings. He’s made seven starts and pitched in two more games in relief.
While not originally part of the rotation, Colon’s been the team’s best start, alongside Cole Hamels.
Colon went 7.2 scoreless innings in his last start, even fielding a hard comebacker off his stomach with ease.
For now, Colon is getting the job done, but he doesn’t have great career numbers against New York as the Yankees have roughed him up to the tune of a 6-9 record and 6.11 ERA in 21 games.
While age and history against the Yankees can make you skeptical of Colon in this game, particularly against the powerhouse Yankee lineup, there are plenty of reasons to worry about Masahiro Tanaka, too.
The Yankee right-hander allowed three-runs in five innings against the Nationals on Tuesday in what turned out to be a suspended game. The teams are tied after six so Tanaka won’t get a decision in that game.
The three runs in five innings builds off what has been a not-so-great May for Tanaka who has allowed 10 runs in 16.1 innings this month.
Overall, Tanaka is 4-2 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.071 WHIP. He’s allowed nine homers in his nine starts.
Tanaka has the better stuff at this point in his career compared to Colon, but a well-located fastball is still the best pitch in the game and right now, Colon seems to be able to dot the ball as well as anyone.
Tanaka is the more likely of the two to deliver a gem, but he’s also the more uncertain one.
Live Betting
In head-to-head matchups, it’s advantage Yankees more times than not in this game. Stanton is 6-for-16 against Colon with two homers while Judge, Sanchez, Neil Walker and Brett Gardner have all taken him deep in limited at bats.
After Colon, matchups don’t get any better in the bullpen. There just aren’t many good pitchers at Jeff Bannister’s disposal. Keone Kela is the team’s closer and he’s got a 5.06 ERA. He keeps getting chances because Alex Claudio, Kevin Jepsen and Jesse Chavez aren’t any better.
In New York, Tanaka can exploit the Rangers and the same can be said for the Yankee relief arms. The bullpen isn’t as sure-fire for the Yankees as most expected coming into the year, but there’s no denying Aroldis Chapman is a shutdown closer and Chad Green, David Robertson, and Dellin Betances all have better stuff than anyone in the Rangers’ pen. OF course, Betances needs to locate his pitches and that’s a problem, but moral of the story is Aaron Boone has options while Bannister really doesn’t.
MLB Pick
Colon remains one of the game’s most fun stories, but his diminished fastball and grit may not be enough to quite the best offense in baseball.
The Yankees are a run scoring machine right now. They have power at every spot in the order. Look for a few Yankee hitters to tee off on Colon fastballs and build an early lead. While Colon should hang in the game for five or six frames, it’s hard to see him going much further against such a potent lineup.
Meanwhile, Tanaka can navigate a Texas lineup that’s missing its two best players. Most Ranger batters have sizeable holes in their swings that Tanaka—if he’s on his game—can exploit. Even if Tanaka’s not the best he can be, the Rangers are a team that can beat themselves at times.
Count on the Yankees bats doing enough against Colon and adding on against a lackluster Rangers’ bullpen in route to a rather easy victory.
MLB Odds: Yankees 8, Rangers 4
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