Before the season started, the New York Yankees versus Washington Nationals was a common World Series pick. The two meet up in the second game of a two-game series on national television Wednesday in what could still be a World Series preview. Regardless of any potential preview, it’ll be a good matchup to watch with the grizzled veteran southpaw, C.C. Sabathia toeing the rubber for the Yanks and perennial Cy Young contender Max Scherzer on the bump for the Nationals.
First pitch for the game between the Yankees and Nationals is scheduled for Wednesday, May 16, 2018, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Yankees just keep rolling. After back-to-back losses on Thursday and Friday, the Yankees rebounded over the weekend to get the series win over the Athletics and improve to 19-3 over their last 22 games.
While New York’s run of success has featured excellent pitching—for the most part—both in the rotation and the bullpen, a lot of credit goes to the offense that’s heated up as the weather has warmed.
The Yankees lead baseball in scoring with 231 runs and are second in home runs with 57 long balls. Overall, the team is sporting a .783 OPS.
New York is susceptible to the strikeout. They rank amongst the top-10 teams in Ks despite the high run total. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge have combined for 109 strikeouts already, but they’ve also hit 21 home runs and have accumulated 169 total bases.
Stanton, Judge, Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius have all hit at least 10 home runs, forming a new version of the famed Murderers’ Row of the 1920s.
Beyond that power is a lot swing and miss, but one swing of the bat can do a lot of damage up and down the order.
Youngsters like Gleybar Torres and Miguel Andujar are also doing damage. Andujar has collected 16 extra base hits already though his OBP is still just .296 as he doesn’t walk. Torres is getting on base at a .360 clip and has a .319 average.
For much of the season, Gregorius was carrying the offense. He, however, has cooled down considerably and is 1-for-35 in his last eight games. Fortunately, the rest of the team around him has stepped up to fill the void.
The Nationals haven’t been nearly as prolific at the plate. Injuries to Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy and Adam Eaton have eaten in the Washington’s depth and have taken away the protection for Bryce Harper who has already walked 41 times.
The lack of pitches to hit has gotten to Harper who’s expanded the zone some of late and is batting just .236. Still he’s got a .943 OPS with a .400 OBP and 13 home runs.
Rendon is now back in the lineup providing some much needed support. He’s swinging well as is Trea Turner and Howie Kendrick. Meanwhile, Matt Adams has been red hot, gaining more and more at bats as Ryan Zimmerman continues to struggle. Zimmerman is now on the DL, opening up a spot for Mark Reynolds who figures to platoon with Adams at first. The tandem should bring plenty of pop.
All in all, this offense is better than the numbers suggest even if they still miss Eaton and Murphy.
Probable Pitchers
The Yankees bats—as strong as they are—will have their work cut out for them on Wednesday against the Nationals’ ace: Max Scherzer.
Scherzer will be facing the Bronx Bombers for the first time since 2015. That could benefit the right-hander as many of the Yankees’ younger bats will be facing Scherzer for the first time.
In fact, only six Yankee hitter have ever faced Schezer with Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks combining to go 0-for-13. Neil Walker does have three homers while Giancarlo Stanton has two, but they’ve both struck out against the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner more than they’ve collected hits.
So far this season, Scherzer is already 7-1 through nine starts with a 1.69 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. He’s leading the league in strikeouts with 91 in just 58.1 innings, giving him a staggering 14 strikeouts per nine innings. That skill could come in handy against a power-laden, but strikeout prone Yankee lineup.
Overall, it’s hard to pick out anything bad about Scherzer’s season. He’s a three-time Cy Young Award winner who—to this point—is having the best season of his career. He’s truly dominating the opposition. He’s also giving the Nationals depth, going at least six innings in all but one start this season. He went seven, allowing one run against the NL leading Diamondbacks his last time out.
Given the dubious task of trying to match Schezer pitch for pitch is veteran southpaw C.C. Sabathia.
The 37-year old lefty has reinvented himself in recent years, proving to be a valuable mid-rotation starter and reliable arm.
Unlikely to be phased by the difficult matchup, Sabathia can be counted on for quality innings. That’s exactly what he’s provided in his seven starts this year. He’s 2-0 with a 2.23 ERA in 36.1 innings. He’s not going deep into games, averaging just over five innings a start, but is pitching well when on the bump.
The lefty is also—unlike Scherzer—not one to light up the radar gun any longer or record a large number of strikeouts. Instead, he’s a control artist now, walking just five this season while inducing weak contact, keeping his WHIP down to 1.018.
Sabathia is a few starts short of Scherzer here in 2018 due to a brief DL stint. Since coming off the DL, Sabathia’s been nearly as good as the Nationals’ right-hander with a 2-0 record and 1.65 ERA. He’s been almost as good in his career against Washington with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts.
Live Betting
Often games between two top-tier teams come down to the late innings, particularly with such experienced, strong starters on the hill.
The Yankees bullpen will likely have to take on more work in this game than Washington’s. Fortunately, for the Bronx Bombers, their bullpen is deeper than the Nats’.
David Robertson and Dellin Betances have been beatable, but they both have dynamic stuff. Meanwhile, Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green are as good as it gets in the end of the game. They should be able shorten this to a seven inning affair, provided they can get to Scherzer. If not, it won’t really matter.
As for Washington, Scherzer could bridge the gap into the seventh. With Sean Doolittle pitching well in the closer’s role, it’ll be up to Dave Martinez to find the right combination of arms to bridge the gap.
Brandon Kintzler has thrown better of late and Ryan Madson’s been the victim of some tough luck. There are some quality, veteran arms in this pen, certainly enough for six or so outs.
MLB Pick
The Yankees’ are red-hot and the offense is clicking on all cylinders. This is, arguably, the best team in baseball, but they have a difficult matchup on Wednesday.
Scherzer is a perennial Cy Young Award contender for good reason. He can beat bad teams, but can also shut down the best offenses. After all, good pitching beats good hitting.
Look for Scherzer to hold the Yankees offense to just a couple runs through seven, turning the ball over to the bullpen with the Nationals in control. New York could pull closer against the bullpen, but with Dolittle a reliable arm in the ninth, the Nationals should be able to close this one out.
Look for Washington to hand the Yankees something they haven’t seen too much over the last month: a loss.
MLB Odds: Nationals 5, Yankees 3
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