It’s been a long winter that was drug out as key players remained—and remain—unsigned deep into Spring Training, but the start of the regular season is finally upon us though we still have plenty of Spring Training action to go yet, too.
The Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners are set to face-off in a brief two game series in Japan as part of a Major League Baseball outreach effort to expand the league’s reach around the globe. The Mariners are a particularly good team to take part given their ties to Japan’s best export so far, Ichiro Suzuki, as well as their most recent pitcher to make the jump to MLB, Yusei Kikuchi.
The first game of the two game, international series between the Athletics and Mariners is scheduled for Wednesday, March 20, 2019 at the Tokyo Dome, with first pitch at 5:35 a.m. ET. Both games will be broadcast on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
For all intents and purposes, it was the Mariners and the A’s fighting it out for the final playoff spot in the AL last year. At season’s end, the A’s were clearly ahead, but Seattle put up a fight deep into the year despite a lopsided run differential.
The Seattle offense got runs when they needed them, but it was the bullpen that stood out, close out on nearly every chance with a late lead. A lot of create for that goes to Edwin Diaz who is now closing out games for the Mets.
In his place, the Mariners have Hunter Strickland in the closer’s role. The rest of the pen is remade as well with four of the eight expected arms new to the team. Strickland’s got a good arm but has had an up-and-down career in San Francisco.
The pen could come together, but its likely to take some time.
That same issue doesn’t exist for the A’s. Oakland sports one of the best bullpens in baseball, at least on paper.
Blake Treinen was, arguably, the game’s best closer last year going 9-2 2ith a 0.78 ERA and 1.82 FIP in 80.1 innings. He pitched more than an inning at the time on several occasions, giving manager Bob Melvin options.
Lou Trivino, Yusmerio Petit and Ryan Buchter all had strong years and offer different looks. Fernando Rodney was a late season add to help provide depth as was Jeurys Familia. Familia is back in New York, but Rodney is still in the A’s bullpen along with Joakim Soria, another experienced late inning arm.
Probable Pitchers
Opening Day typically produces matchups of aces going to battle, former Cy Young Award winners and All-Stars taking the hill. The matchups for the A’s and Mariners in these first two games of their regular season action is a bit less inspiring as neither boast a particularly deep starting rotation.
In Wednesday’s opener, the Mariners are turning to Marco Gonzales to make the start as he unseats Felix Hernandez atop the order. This will be the first time since Erik Bedard too the ball in 2008 that King Felix won’t be on the hill for the team’s first regular season game.
Gonzales simply outpitched Hernandez last year. The former went 13-9 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 166.2 innings of work. The latter had a 5.55 ERA and 14 losses.
The southpaw’s numbers aren’t that of a true ace, but he was an above average starter last year with a 102 ERA+ and has shown a great amount of growth since coming to Seattle in the middle of 2017.
At 27, he’s taken on a leadership role in the staff and has shown the ability to limit walks and at least make the opposition earn their way on base.
His spring training, however, hasn’t been great and he’s walked seven battlers and allowed 21 hits in four games, spanning 13.1 innings.
Opposing Gonzales on Wednesday for the A’s will be right-hander Mike Fiers.
Fiers was a midseason acquisition last year for Oakland and pitched well coming over from Detroit. He produced a combined 3.56 ERA, like the numbers he had when he went from Milwaukee to Houston in 2015. He regressed the following year to a 4.48 ERA. In both cases, his FIP was worse than his ERA, but the gap was even bigger last year when his FIP was 475 thanks in part to a high home run rate.
Seattle will look to take advantage of his propensity to allow the long ball—and his spring struggles—to get a win in the first game. Though Fiers is more proven in his eight-year career than Gonzales and does have a strong pen behind him. Bob Melvin is a great manager for him as he’s one that shouldn’t be given too long of a rope. Melvin is an excellent manager of pitchers and has several weapons to use when he takes him out of the game.
Moving along to Game 2, the Yusei Kikuchi gets the start for Seattle.
A fellow left-hander, like Gonzales, Kikuchi will be the first Japanese born pitcher to make his Major League debut in Japan. He was an established starter in Japan with a 73-46 record and 2.77 ERA over eight seasons with the Seibu Lions. He’ll be pitching in a familiar atmosphere that’ll be foreign to his competition. That should play into his favor.
He’s been okay so far this spring training. His strikeouts are down, but he’s allowing generally weak contact, and has just two walks allowed in his first three appearances.
To counter the lefty, the A’s will turn to an MLB veteran in Marco Estrada who is coming off an injury plagued season that resulted in a career worst 5.64 ERA and dismal 7-14 record with the Blue Jays.
Oakland is banking on the 35-year returning closer to his career average numbers with a 4.24 ERA, but he had a 4.98 ERA in 186 innings in 2017 as well. He was a 2016 All-Star but is getting up there in age and could just be on the downside of his career.
He’s known for his changeup, but his fastball needs to play off that change and that’s been a struggle at times the last couple years.
He hasn’t shown much this spring either, though it has been a very small sample size of two outings.
Live Betting
Offensively, the A’s ranked fourth in runs scored in 2018, platting 813 runs helping them to a +139 run differential. Seattle, by comparison, scored 677 runs with a -34 run differential.
Seattle’s offense could also be weaker than the one it had last year. Seattle traded way Robinson Cano, though he missed a good chunk of the year to his suspension. More impactful, the Mariners opted to let Nelson Cruz walk after 37 home runs and a 135 OPS+.
The Mariners did replace Cruz with Edwin Encarnacion, another strong DH capable of hitting the ball out of nearly any park, but Cruz had the better year last year in a worse hitter park.
Meanwhile, Seattle has Kyle Seager and Mallex Smith on the sidelines for this series with injuries. Smith was added to bring more speed to the order and athleticism in centerfield. Without him, the outfield is still good with Mitch Haniger and his 139 OPS+ leading the way along with veteran Jay Bruce and Domingo Santana who is just a year removed from a huge season.
Of course, Bruce could also play first which would open up a spot for Ichiro Suzuki to play in what could be his final big-league games. While it’s mostly a publicity stunt in Japan, Ichiro is certainly the type of player to have a big moment as he goes out into the sunset.
Back to the A’s, the offense was carried at times in the second half by Matt Chapman who ended the year with a 136 OPS+. Khris Davis is a big bat and last year’s major league home run leader at 48. He was one of five 20-homer bats for the A’s, four are back with only Jed Lowrie moving on.
In Lowrie’s place, the team added Jurickson Profar who brings a lot of upside.
MLB Pick
The starting pitching in both games leans towards the Mariners with Fiers and Estrada little more than solid major league starters at best and regressing arms at worst.
Kikuchi should have a big edge in Game 2 given his familiarity with the environment. He’s looked good in spring as well. Look for him to have a big game, holding the A’s in check and allowing the Seattle bullpen and offense to do enough to get the win.
In Game 1, however, the edge may belong to the A’s. Gonzales had a good year in 2018 but has struggled in spring and has a lot of weight on his shoulders as the newly appointed Opening Day starter. It’s a first for Fiers as well, but he’s got a big more experience in the league.
Beyond the starters, the A’s have the superior offense and bullpen which should be a big factor in Game 1 if neither pitcher is able to go deep. Look for Chapman and company to get the runs needed while a deep pen gives Melvin at least four or five solid frames to close it out.
A two-game sweep, particularly in an unfamiliar stadium is difficult. With all the effort that has gone into this series and given these teams are still, somewhat, in spring training mode, look for this ultimately to end in a split.
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