On Monday, the Philadelphia Phillies head south to the desert of Arizona to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks and kick off a three game series between teams battling for their respective division crowns. To start the series, the Phillies turn to one of their dueling aces with Jake Arrieta getting the start while Zack Godley figures to try and build off his last start and gain some momentum moving forward for the D-Backs.
First pitch of the game between the Phillies and Diamondbacks is scheduled for Monday, August 6, 2018, at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field. The matchup will be televised locally.
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Odds Analysis
The Phillies and Diamondbacks are all too similar offensively. They are both hitting in the .230s as a team and have similar OPS numbers.
Though, the D-Backs have some better bats in their lineup, most notably Paul Goldschmidt who after a rough start has his season numbers up to .277/.384/.520 with 23 bombs and 59 driven in. Goldy, A.J. Pollock and David Peralta account for most of their offense, though the D-Backs did just add Eduardo Escobar who leads the majors in doubles and is an upgrade over the injured Jake Lamb at third.
The Phillies, on the other hand, offer a more balanced lineup with average to above average production at most positions, but they lack the player like Goldschmidt that can carry the team on their shoulders. That leaves Philadelphia a bit more offensively consistent and not as reliant on one player that can have a bad day, but they also don’t have the same upside.
Rhys Hoskins is the Phillies’ biggest bat with a .886 OPS he’s hit 21 homers though Odubel Herrera and even Maikel Franco are having good years. Franco has quietly picked up his production greatly in the last month and is hitting .278 with 17 homers and a .807 OPS.
The Phillies also added an infield bat at the deadline picking up Asdrubal Cabrera, but he’s more a bench bat than anything as he’s not a great shortstop defensively and that’s the one area that the lineup could use an upgrade.
The Phils could also upgrade behind the plate and they added Wilson Ramos to help there, but he’s still on the DL, leaving the catcher spot to Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp for now.
Probable Pitchers
Jake Arrieta has been overshadowed a bit in Philadelphia thanks to the amazing season by Aaron Nola, but the 32-year old right-hander has been pitching extraordinarily well over the last month. In fact, in July, Arrieta is 4-0 with a 2.80 ERA and is coming off a one-run, seven-inning start against the MLB leading Red Sox in which he struck out seven batters.
On the season, the strikeout numbers have been way down for Arrieta who is only sitting down 6.6 per nine innings. He’s got 8.1 over his career and hasn’t been below 8.7 since the year he was traded from Baltimore to Chicago.
That lower strikeout rate is a bit concerning, but his recent production is encouraging for his chances to throw well on Monday.
On the year, Arrieta is 9-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.240 WHIP. He’s still keeping the walks down and keeping the ball in the yard, resulting in a 3.96 FIP and a team record of 12-9 in his 21 starts.
When Arrieta faced the D-Backs back in April, he allowed three runs in seven innings though only one of those runs were earned. In his career, he’s 4-3 against Arizona with a 2.56 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in eight starts over 52.2 innings. He’s 2-1 in four starts at Chase Field.
Zack Godley also throws well at Chase Field. The 28-year old right-hander has a negative WAR in 23 games this year, but he’s been a much better pitcher at home than on the road.
Overall, Godley is a solid 12-6 though he has a 4.46 ERA and 1.472 WHIP with 59 walks in his 123 innings of work. At home, he’s 6-2 in 11 games with a 3.43 ERA and 1.276 WHIP largely due to better control and a better feel on the mound.
After a break out year last year, Godley’s regressed some here in 2018 and he had a couple bad outings before his latest one where he went seven scoreless, allowing just two hits and one walk against the Rangers. Texas also struck out 10 times in that game. Texas is strikeout prone as a team, but Godley is more of a strikeout pitcher than Arrieta.
Godley hasn’t faced Philadelphia this year and has only pitched in two games—over 6.2 innings—against them in his career, but he allowed only one run in those innings, albeit against a team that was finishing in last place in the NL East. This is a different Phillies squad.
Live Betting
The Phillies will need to score off Godley and grab an early lead to have a good chance at getting the win on Monday. Philadelphia has the right pitcher on the mound to give them the chance to do so, but if this game goes to the bullpens tied or with the D-Backs ahead, the Phillies will be hard pressed to come back and get the win.
Arizona’s bullpen is stacked. Even before the trade market heated up and Arizona jumped in to pick up some arms, the D-Backs had the best bullpen in the NL based on ERA. That was with Brad Boxberger, Archie Bradley, Yashihisa Hirano and Andrew Chafin. Now they’ve added Brad Zeigler who’s been nearly unhittable the last few months, Matt Andriese and Jake Diekman, giving the D-Backs three new pitchers with differing delivers and specialties. Adnriese can give depth alongside T.J. McFarland while Diekman offers electric stuff from the left side and Zeigler drops down with good control on the right.
The Phillies bullpen isn’t bad and can close out games, but isn’t as good as Arizona’s. It’s also a bit younger, making it a bit more volatile. Seranthony Dominguez has been filthy with a 1.91 ERA. He’s locked down the ninth.
Pat Neshek is the grizzled veteran and a nice set up arm with Victor Arano and Tommy Hunter to help get the team to Dominguez. That’s an area that the D-Backs may be able to exploit, but generally the group gets the job done.
MLB Pick
Both Arrieta and Godley are coming off encouraging outings, look for both to pitch a good game on Monday.
Arrieta’s last start is a bit more impressive than Godley’s given the opponent and he should be able to ride that to another win. After all, his latest run of success has been a lot longer than Godley who will be hoping his last start serves as a sort of turnaround point.
Look for the Phillies to score a couple off Godley over five innings and that could be enough. Philadelphia will need to get the lead against Godley before getting to the stacked bullpen who should do a good job keeping the game close.
In the end, look for at least six strong from Arreita and for the Philadelphia bullpen to use the guys in the back end to close out the win.
MLB Odds: Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 3
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