For those looking for some action at BookMaker Sportsbook, Saturday afternoon’s showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves is an interesting choice. The Braves will be looking to close out the NL East against their divisional foes while the Phillies try to prolong the inevitable a bit longer. The trends, however, won’t favor either team as both send a struggling—but talented—starter to the mound with the Phillies turning to Jake Arrieta and the Braves giving the ball to Sean Newcomb.
First pitch for the game between the Phillies and Braves is scheduled for Saturday, September 22, 2018, at 1:05 p.m. ET at SunTrust Park. The matchup will be shown on FOX.
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Odds Analysis
Coming into this series, these two teams played each other tough with the Braves holding a 7-5 advantage in the season series. It should be no surprise that Atlanta has outscored the Phillies by 19 runs in their head-to-head battles.
The Braves boast a far superior run differential in addition to their better record with much of that attributable to an offense ranked fourth in the NL in runs scored. The Phillies rank No.12. The Braves have a .259/.325/.423 slash line to the Phillies’ .238/.316/.398. Atlanta makes better contact, gets on base at a higher rate and hits the ball with more authority though Philadelphia has outhomered Atlanta.
While most of baseball is consumed by three outcomes: home runs, walks, and strike outs; the Braves are much more focused on quality at bats and making good contact.
Freddie Freeman is the heart and soul of the lineup and a perennial MVP candidate. He’s not a major home run bat but can drive the ball out of the yard from time-to-time. In the past he’s been a bit of a one-man show, but he’s got a plethora of talent around him this year.
Nick Markakis has had a career year in his age 34-season with a .828 OPS and 92 RBIs. He and Kurt Suzuki are the other veteran presences alongside Freeman. On the other side of the spectrum, the youngsters in the lineup have been equally as strong. Johan Camargo and Ozzie Albies would be getting far more attention if not for Ronald Acuna Jr. The 20-year old rookie has a .295/.369/.578 slash line with 26 home runs and 14 steals in 100 games. He’s hitting atop the order and setting the tone.
For all that is good in the Atlanta offense, the Philly offense has been a struggle.
The Phillies were getting enough offense to support their strong pitching, but guys like Odubel Herrera has crumbled in the second half and been even worse down the stretch here in September.
Rhys Hoskins is the best bat. He, Jorge Alfaro, Wilson Ramos and Carlos Santana have been swinging well in September, but it’s not enough with the second half of the lineup struggling so badly.
The Phillies just look tired. They’re crawling to the finish line and while they acquired some reinforcements down the stretch, it hasn’t been enough.
Probable Pitchers
On the outside, this pitching matchup couldn’t be more different. In Jake Arrieta, the Phillies have a grizzled veteran and a right-hander while the Braves have a second-year starter who throws from the left side. They’ve got different styles of pitching, too, but they’re not without their similarities.
Both Arrieta and Newcomb are, or at least were, the No.2 starter for their respective teams. For Arrieta, he’s behind Cy Young contender Aaron Nola. Newcomb is after All-Star Mike Foltynewicz though recent struggles may have notched him further down the totem pole. In fact, he could be pitching for a postseason roster spot.
Arrieta hasn’t been throwing well either though for the Phillies that’s a common trait amongst their starters not named Nola. For Newcomb, his struggles are limited to just him.
On August 3, Arrieta threw eight scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks to lower his ERA to 3.11. Since then, he’s made seven starts, pitched to a 6.02 ERA while barely averaging more than five innings a start.
The righty’s overall numbers are still rather strong as he’s just 10-9 but has a respectable 3.77 ERA in 164.2 innings of work. His FIP is a bit higher at 4.13. His strikeout rate is down from his career average and his WHIP is up, but as for the body of work this season, it’s been okay. It’s the recent past that’s an issue. Newcomb has the same issue.
The young lefty is 12-9 with a 4.04 ERA in 158.1 innings of work spread over 29 starts. His WHIP, however, is higher than Arrieta’s at 1.339 due to a very high walk rate. Nevertheless, he’s been a bigger strikeout pitcher, leaving his FIP in line with Arrieta’s at 4.18.
For Newcomb, the struggles go back a bit further than Arrieta. He’s got a 5.92 ERA over his last 13 starts and hasn’t even pitched five innings in three of his last four outings. He had a 3.51 ERA at the All-Star break and it’s been all downhill since. His pitching has been worse at home, too, where he has 5.12 ERA compared to 3.00 on the road.
Live Betting
Games are often won, or lost, in the bullpen. Nothing is more demoralizing to a team than losing a game they should have won. Similarly, nothing can build momentum like a come from behind win.
While the Phillies’ bullpen has outpitched the Braves on the year with a 3.96 ERA, Atlanta was only a little behind at 4.17. The Braves’ pen is also throwing better right now than the Phillies’.
After a strong August, Hector Neris has blown up again in September while Seranthony Dominguez and Luis Garcia have struggled as well. The Phillies have converted three of their four save chances this month. At the same time, Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek and Victor Arano are throwing well, combining for 19.2 innings and just two runs allowed, but those are the arms tasked with keeping a lead. The guys in the middle haven’t had as much success.
The Braves have converted just five of nine save chances this month, but Arodys Vizcaino is back and could help stabilize the ninth. Brad Brach is pitching well as a setup man. Sam Freeman remains a good situational option. In addition, the pen is now littered with talented young arms as Atlanta has promoted several talented young prospects to provide extra depth out of the pen. Experience is an issue, but talent is there.
MLB Pick
Newcomb’s home record and recent string of failures is a concern, but the issues aren’t new and Brian Snitker will have a short leash for his young lefty, particularly with a deep bullpen thanks to the expanded September rosters.
Don’t look for a particularly long—or successful—outing from either starter. Even with the Phillies’ offensive woes, look for Philadelphia to put up a few runs through four or five against Newcomb. From there, however, the Braves have a plethora of talented young arms—and a couple stabilizing veterans—to pitch the last half of the game and hold a struggling Philly offense mostly at bay.
On the other side, Arrieta’s had some flashes here and there over his last month, but it’s been nearly as bad as Newcomb’s and the Braves’ offense is much better than the one in Philadelphia.
Look for the Braves to do some damage against Arrieta and add on against a bullpen that’s seemingly just as tired as the rotation.
MLB Odds: Braves 7, Phillies 5
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