From worst to first, the Philadelphia Phillies have had a remarkable turnaround since last year and will get to test themselves against the team with the best record in baseball when they head to New England to take on the Boston Red Sox in the first of a brief two-game series on Monday. The Phillies will send the big guns to the hill in what they hope to be a World Series preview with Aaron Nola set to start. The Red Sox, meanwhile, will counter with either David Price or Drew Pomeranz.
First pitch of the game between the Phillies and Red Sox is scheduled for Monday, July 30, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
You can bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Odds Analysis
The Phillies are in first place in the NL East while the Red Sox are ahead in the AL East. Boston’s got the better record, but the Phillies have been playing great baseball this last month, going 13-7 in July.
Philadelphia has been a great home team all year. They’re under-.500 on the road, but are 34-18 at home. Interestingly, they’re also very good in one run games, going 20-9 in such contests.
The Phillies’ success in one-run affairs is largely because of the good pitching.
While finding a closer early in the year was an issue, Seranthony Dominguez stepped into the role admirably and has pitched exceptionally well as has Victor Arano. Pat Neshek is back from the DL and has yet to allow a run in nine innings this season. Those three can help shorten a game to six or seven innings.
The Sox, of course, are a good team in one-run games, too, but at 15-9 they’re not quite putting up the same winning percentage as Philadelphia though their 37-19 road record is on par with the Phillies’ strong record at home.
Back to the pitching, if the Sox can get to the ninth with the lead, they win the battle of the closers with Craig Kimbrel and set up options like Matt Barnes and Hector Velazquez aren’t too shabby either.
Probable Pitchers
Still underrated nationally, Aaron Nola has been a good pitcher for a couple years now, but his performance this year puts him amongst the best starters in baseball.
The young right-hander is coming off a lackluster five inning performance against the Dodgers where he allowed three runs. That’s considered a terrible outing for Nola, particularly at home, which just goes to illustrate how good he’s been this year.
In 21 starts this year, the Phillies’ ace is 12-3 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.993 WHIP. He’s thrown a team leading 134 innings as he’s become a workhorse atop the rotation. In those innings, he’s struck out 136, but walked just 37 and allowed only seven home runs. His ability to keep the ball in the park has been critical to his success.
The Phillies are 15-6 in the righty’s 21 starts and are 7-1 in his last eight.
Nola hasn’t faced the Red Sox this year, but he dominated against the Blue Jays and Orioles—the only two AL teams’ he’s faced—and pitched well against the better NL team’s he’s matched up against. He also looked good in his All-Star Game appearance. He struck out Salvador Perez and Mookie Betts and got Mike Trout to pop up to foul to first.
The Sox have yet to announce who they’ll send to the mound to keep pace with Nola, but it figures to be either David Price or Drew Pomeranz.
Price pitched on Wednesday against the Orioles and was on pace of another win, but the game was called in the second inning and the Red Sox’s 5-0 lead disappeared like it never happened. As a result, the Sox have lost Price for a few games, but he’s likely to pitch against the Phillies either Monday or Tuesday.
If it’s Price, he comes to the game with an 11-6 record and 4.17 ERA in 20 official starts, not counting the one against the Orioles.
Price’s numbers are even better if you discount his terrible performances against the Yankees. Against all other teams’ he has an ERA in the low-to-mid threes.
The Red Sox are 14-6 when the veteran lefty makes a start and have won each of his last three starts. Going back bit further, they’re 11-2 in his last 13 starts.
As an American League pitcher, Price hasn’t had many chances against the Phillies in his career, but has made three starts against them, allowing 14 runs—nine earned—over 17.1 innings.
As for Pomeranz, the other Boston southpaw just 1-4 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.824 WHIP though he’s been limited to nine games due to injury.
The injuries have played a part in the bad numbers, too. The 29-year old went 4.2 innings in his last start—his first since May—and allowed four runs while throwing 89 pitches against the terrible Orioles’ offense.
Live Betting
Save the All-Star game when Nola struck out Betts, the only Red Sox batters to face Nola are J.D. Martinez and Eduardo Nunez. Only Martinez has a hit against him, going 1-for-3 with a single and two strikeouts.
Betts and Martinez are the two players that make the Red Sox’s lineup the best in the game and Nola’s shown he’s not afraid of them in his young career.
Still, those two are an amazing duo with 56 home runs and 140 RBIs. Both are also hitting over .320 and each have an OPS well over 1.000. You don’t see a lot of duos like that in the NL.
There’s a reason the Sox are the best offense in baseball. They’ve scored 556 runs, over a hundred more than the Phillies. They hit for power and average while getting on base and doing the little things right. The Phillies don’t come close to the firepower of the Red Sox.
For the Phillies, it’s the pitching that’s the primary reason they’re in the postseason picture at the moment.
Offensively, Philadelphia is No.19 in baseball in runs scored and has a .235 team average, .318 team OBP and .712 team OPS.
More recently, however, the Phillies offense has been a bit more dependable. Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana and Odubel Herrera are all solid players, but improvements from Maikel Franco and Nick Williams over the last month are a big reason for that. Franco’s been carrying the team at times the last few weeks and is batting .313 with a .935 OPS in his last 24 games.
MLB Pick
Whether it is Price or Pomeranz getting the start for the Red Sox in this game makes a huge difference. Pomeranz looked bad against the Orioles while Price has had a nice season against anyone other than the Yankees.
With Nola getting the start for the Phillies, look for Philadelphia to steal the game, but it’ll be much more difficult with Price on the other side than with Pomeranz. Assuming Price gets the start, look for the Phillies to get a few runs off him and for Nola to pitch well enough for that to carry Philadelphia to a win a rare low scoring game for the strong Boston offense.
This Phillies team is better than many give them credit. There’s some quality young arms in the bullpen that can close the door after Nola.
Meanwhile on offense, the Sox have a ton of homers and Nola is good at limiting those. It’s unlikely Nola can keep the likes of Betts, Martinez and Benintendi completely quiet, but he should be able to do enough—along with the pen—to allow the Phillies’ with Herrera, Santana and more to do enough to win the game.
MLB Odds: Phillies 4, Red Sox 3
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today!
