It seemed farfetched at the beginning of the season, but as the month of July comes to an end, ESPN will carry both games of a two-game set which may be a World Series preview between the Boston Red Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies. These two teams top their respective divisions with the Sox several games up on the Yankees in the AL East and the Phillies at the top of the hill in the NL East. Philadelphia has their rotation lined up to make a statement in this series, too, sending Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta to the hill while missing Chris Sale in both games.
First game for the two-game series between the Phillies at Red Sox is scheduled for Monday, July 30, 2018, at 7:10 p.m. ET with the series finale on the following day. Both games will be televised on ESPN and be played at Fenway Park.
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Odds Analysis
The Red Sox are, perhaps, the most balanced team in baseball and their 17-4 record over their last 21 games are a testament to that. Their .720 home winning percentage also attests to just how dangerous this team is at Fenway.
Statistically, the Sox are the best hitting team in baseball. They’ve scored more runs than anyone, 566, and have a .796 team OPS. Meanwhile, they’re also batting .270 as a unit in a season when the average team average is below .250. They’re also getting on base at a .337 clip while providing plenty of pop.
To go along with the offense, Boston also has the third best team ERA in baseball behind Houston and the Dodgers at 3.54.
In both cases—offensively and defensively—Sox are ahead of the Phillies who have a 3.88 ERA as a team and a .718 OPS.
Offensively, Boston is built around the duo of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez—each amongst the top candidates for MVP honors. Both have an OPS well over 1.000 and provide power, runs driven in and a solid average. Betts is hitting .346 while Martinez is at .324.
Beyond those two, the Sox’s offense isn’t nearly as dominant. The Phillies will need to keep those two in check, but that’s a lot easier said than done. And, even if they do handle that tandem, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland and Xander Bogaerts all have an OPS+ of at least 120 while Steve Pearce has proven to be a nice weapon against lefties since coming over from Toronto.
For the Phillies, the offense just cannot match up. The team added Asdrubal Cabrera to the mix and he’s a veteran bat that can move around the infield, but the team is still missing a threat at shortstop. Scott Kingery was a top prospect coming into the year but has struggled in his freshman campaign.
Jorge Alfrado and Andrew Knapp are good enough behind the dish which leaves short as the only spot where the Phillies are legitimately below average. Otherwise, this is a team of with a solid—though generally unspectacular—offensive option at each defensive position. While the Sox have five different starting players—plus Pearce—with an OPS+ of at least 120. Rhys Hoskins is the only such player with the Phillies, though Hoskins has been red hot and is now sporting a .882 OPS, 21 homers and 70 RBIs as the Home Run Derby hasn’t hurt his production at all.
Probable Pitchers
With Aaron Nola slated to start on Monday and Jake Arrieta penciled in for Tuesday, the Phillies are not going to make this an easy series for the Red Sox.
Nola is a contender for the NL Cy Young Award given his 12-3 record, 2.42 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in his 134 innings of work. In that time, he’s struck out 136, walked just 37 and allowed a meager seven home runs despite pitching half his games at a very hitter friendly park.
Those numbers above combine to yield a very favorable 2.71 FIP showing that Nola’s success is not at all tied to the defense behind him, although having a quality defense surely doesn’t hurt.
Through 21 starts, Nola has amassed a 6.0 WAR and has allowed only two runs in 13.2 innings against AL teams this year; granted, that did come against Toronto and Baltimore.
His last time out wasn’t great for Nola. He allowed three runs on five hits—including a homer—in just five innings. That snapped a streak of five straight quality starts and was just the fourth time since April that Nola has allowed more than two runs in a game.
While Nola provides a difficult opposition for the Sox on Monday, it doesn’t get a whole lot easier on Tuesday when the Phillies have Jake Arrieta lined up to make the start.
Arrieta has worse numbers across the board than Nola but is a big game pitcher and has proven himself in big spots in October. He won’t be rattled against Boston.
This season, Arrieta is 8-6 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.264 WHIP. He’s seen his strikeout rate drop to 6.4 per nine and along with an elevated walk rate, his FIP is up to 4.11.
Arrieta’s strikeout rate is way down from his career norm. Still, he’s been able to keep his team in the game and get wins. The 32-year old right-hander has been a two WAR player and has three quality starts in his last four outings.
On the year, the Phillies are 11-9 when he gets the ball and they’re 5-0 in his July starts.
On the other side of this matchup, the Phillies will have to contend with David Price and Drew Pomeranz on Monday and Tuesday respectively.
Price is a former Cy Young Award winner and ace arm, but much like Arrieta, he hasn’t been quite as good this season.
The 32-year old southpaw is 11-6, but has an elevated 4.17 ERA, 4.29 FIP and 1.224 WHIP. He’s still striking out a batter an inning and his walk rate is only slightly elevated from his career average, but he’s allowing more hard contact. He’s already given up 18 home runs in 114.1 innings.
Price’s numbers on the year aren’t exactly awe inspiring, but they’re still rather solid, particularly against anyone but the Yankees. Taking out his dismal numbers against New York and the Red Sox lefty 11-4 with a 3.35 ERA. Those are excellent numbers.
While Price has pitched well most of the time, Pomeranz has had a tough season. He’s 1-4 with a 6.91 ERA in just nine starts as injuries have stolen effectiveness and starts from him this year.
In his first start off the DL since May, the 29-year old lasted only 4.2 innings against the last place Orioles and gave up four runs on six hits, including a pair of home runs.
Pomeranz left the ball up and over the plate way too much. He should be better on Tuesday, but will still undoubtedly have rust and struggle with his command.
Live Betting
So offensively, the Phillies are rather deep with quality Major League hitters but lack the top end talent of a team like Boston. On the mound they’ll look to make up for that difference with their two top starters against Price and Pomeranz. That should even the odds a bit, leaving the defense and bullpen to be crucial components to this series.
On the defensive end of the spectrum, both teams have players with solid ranges at different positions, but while Kingery hasn’t helped offensively at short, he’s also more of a second baseman than shortstop defensively. Of course, he’s not the only defensive weakness for Philly given the team’s 76 errors, third most in baseball. The Sox, by comparison have made 50 and rank as a better defensive squad.
Boston’s bullpen also boasts superior numbers to the Phillies. The Sox’s bullpen ERA is a half a run per nine lower than Philadelphia.
Craig Kimbrel is obviously a much more established closer than Seranthony Dominguez, though the later has done an excellent job since assuming the role.
The Phillies do have some intriguing young arms setting up Dominguez along with the quirky delivering of Pat Neshek. That has allowed the Phillies’ pen to close out key wins and could do so again in this series.
That said, the Sox have a deeper pen now though both are still looking to add relief help. If one is able to do so prior to the completion of this series, though could help boost one of these teams over the other.
MLB Pick
The Red Sox are the best team in baseball based on record and will be playing at home where they have a distinct advantage given the passion of their fanbase and the quirkiness of their ballpark. Despite that, look for these two teams to spit the brief two game series as the Phillies will send their two aces to the mound in this series.
What makes things even better for the Phillies is the Sox will be using a pair of southpaws in this series. The Red Sox rotation is loaded with lefties which is not a natural fit to their ballpark. While the Phillies don’t typically fair all that well against lefties, Price has had some issues here and there and Pomeranz has yet to get into a groove this season. That opens the door.
In the end, look for the Sox to overcome one of Nola or Arrieta, but the beating that duo twice is too much to ask. The Phillies also have a solid collection of arms behind the starters and a good enough offense to get them at least one win.
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