Division leaders clash in the second game of a four-game set when the NL East’s Philadelphia Phillies invade Wrigley Field to take on the NL Central’s Chicago Cubs. After splitting a six-game road trip, the Cubbies are back in the friendly confines where they’ve won 15 of 21 games this season.
The task of taking down the Phils won’t be easy with Bryce Harper heating up to lead his squad to a weekend sweep of Colorado. Harper stopped the booing from the home crowd by homering in each of the last two games against the Rockies. He doesn’t hit lefties well and will face a tough one in Jose Quintana. The Phils will counter with Zach Eflin, who has emerged as the ace of the staff.
This MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs will be held at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, at 7:05 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May 21, 2019. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Phillies delved into the free agent market luring Harper with a boat load of money. They also acquired other top end talent in an effort to speed the rebuild process. So far it’s been successful with first-place in the NL East all theirs after taking down the Rockies over the weekend. It’s been an erratic but consistent journey so for. They haven’t won more than four consecutive games all season and they haven’t lost more than three in a row.
Remember that 2-7 start by the Cubs aided by a disastrous display of pitching from the bullpen? Me neither. Since that dreadful opening the Cubs have gone 25-10 to take over the top spot in the Central. They got things squared away in the bullpen, the starters have been lights out and the offense has come alive with Kris Bryant swinging a hot stick. The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 home games outscoring opponents 46-30.
Probable Pitchers
Tossing a complete game is about as rare as a no-hitter these days. Zach Eflin ( 5-4, 2.89 ERA ) is turning back the clock. The righty hadn’t pitched more than 7.0 innings in any of his first five starts, but he has two complete games in his last four outings. He threw 110 pitches to blank the Royals two starts ago for his second career shutout. He also went the distance in a 5-1 win over Miami on April 28.
Eflin has been tagged with a decision in all nine of his starts this year and when he’s good, he’s really good. When he’s bad, he’s horrible. He hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of his five wins and has a microscopic 0.73 ERA. Eflin hasn’t gone more than 6.0 innings in his four losses and owns a 7.10 ERA in those games.
The lefty has been a workhorse leading the Cubs with 51.1 innings and he’s recovered from a disastrous first start to put up respectable numbers. His current stats are in line with his career numbers, but Jose Quintana ( 4-3, 3.68 ERA ) has been solid at Wrigley Field. In his four home starts this season he’s 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA and 26 strikeouts across 26.2 frames.
Quintana has surrendered at least two earned in each of his last five starts, but he’s been able to limit the damage by avoiding free passes. He’s issued only 15 walks the entire year. Q has yet to beat the Phil in four career starts and boasts a 4.76 ERA over 22.2 innings in those games.
Live Betting
You have to watch how Eflin fares in the early going of this game. As we mentioned above, if he clears the first few frames without any damage, he could have another stellar outing. However, in his four losses he’s been tagged for 11 runs in the first three innings.
The Cubs have a potent offensive club and with Kris Bryant getting hot they’ve become even better. Putting the slow start behind him, Bryant is hitting .407 with four homers over the last seven days. Eight of his 11 homers have come this month when he’s hit .339 and he faces a pitcher in Eflin who he’s batting .600 against in his career.
Free MLB ATS Picks
The Cubs have been a strong home team and they are getting contributions from guys like Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, who had been slumping at the start of the campaign. Eflin has been good this season, but his career metrics say he’s out kicking his coverage, and I don’t think it’s going to last. That’s why I’m going with the home team for a victory in this one.
MLB Pick: Chicago Cubs 6, Philadelphia Phillies 3
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