Given the Philadelphia Phillies had the second worst record in the National League last year, it seemed unlikely that come June a series between the Phillies and the Chicago Cubs would be pinning two postseason hopefuls head-to-head. As it turns out, we live in a bizarre world where the real is often more surprisingly that the imaginary. The Phillies are in the thick of the NL East race and within striking distance, in a similar place to the Cubs in the NL Central.
The first games of the three-game set between the Phillies and Cubs is scheduled for Tuesday, June 5, 2018, at 8:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field with the series running through Thursday, June 7, 2018 at 2:20 p.m. ET. Each game of this series will be broadcast regionally.
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Odds Analysis
Statistically, the Cubs are leaps and bounds ahead of the Phillies at the plate. The North Siders have scored the most runs in NL at 291 and have a team OPS of .786. Phillies, on the other hand, are far behind them in the rankings, sitting at No.20 in baseball while scoring 238 runs and posting a .702 OPS.
The Phillies have been a bit better over the last month, but so have the Cubs as offenses around baseball have heated up along with the weather.
In Philly, the offense is desperate to find a good No.2 hitter. The spot has been a curse on whoever was in it. Carlos Santana had the spot early and was dreadful early. Rhys Hoskins wasn’t nearly as good a player after he moved into the spot and now is on the DL. The Phillies need someone to grab the spot.
The spots on either side of the No.2 hitter, however, have been claimed with Cesar Hernandez doing an excellent job getting on base atop the order and Odubel Herrera having a monster season in the No.3 hole.
Herrera’s posting a slash line of .306/.368/.476 to lead the team. Overall, the team is getting okay numbers across the board except at shortstop and right-field.
The Cubs don’t have the same offensive holes. In right field and at short, Jason Heyward and Addison Russell are the weakest links, but both have OPS+ numbers only slightly below league average. Meanwhile, there are eight players on the active roster with an OPS+ of at least 118.
Despite less power than one would expect, Kris Bryant is having another great season. In addition, Anthony Rizzo is finally starting to hit, Javier Baez is offering power and a good average, and Kyle Schwarber is a much different player from last year.
Probable Pitchers
It’s a bit disappointing, but Jake Arrieta isn’t scheduled to get a start in the Phillies’ lone trip to Wrigley Field.
The former Cub was disenchanted by Chicago’s lack of interest in retaining him this offseason and would be an interesting comeback story for a pitcher who helped lead the team to its 2016 World Series title. Still, while Arrieta will be on the sidelines, the Phillies will send some good arms to the hill.
The series opens with Zach Eflin taking the ball for Philadelphia opposite Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs.
Eflin’s spot in the rotation could be up for grabs. The right-hander came out of the gate strong in his first two starts of the season, going 12.1 combined innings with just a single run, seven hits, three walks and 13 strikeouts. Since then, however, the 24-year old hasn’t been able to get out of the fifth inning in three straight starts. He’s allowed 14 runs in 13.1 innings. Walks haven’t been bad, but he’s been incredibly hittable.
Given Eflin’s last few outings, Hendricks has the clear advantage in the series opener given his 3.19 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in his first 11 starts of the year.
Over five seasons, Hendricks has amassed 13.3 WAR despite not raking up the strikeouts. He continues to be an effective pitcher, depending more on location and movement than his mediocre velocity. He’s not a stuff guy, but he’s been an incredibly effective starter in his career. He’s 42-26 in his career with a 2.97 ERA and continually outperforms his FIP. That’s been the case again in 2018 and is really the only case against him, save for a 4-4 record which is more on the Cubs’ offense than him.
While the Cubs have the edge in the rotation in Game 1, the tide changes in Game 2 when Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies and Jose Quintana is tasked with opposing him.
Nola’s been one of the best pitchers in the game this season. He’s pitching to a 2.18 ERA and has a .521 opponents OPS. Both are staggering numbers.
Nola’s been the team’s ace the last couple years, but has really stepped up his game this year. He’s 7-2 and has a 0.932 WHIP and 2.62 FIP. He’s keeping the ball in a very small home ballpark with just four homers allowed and is an early favorite for the NL Cy Young Award.
When he’s on, Quintana is good, but hasn’t been nearly as good as Nola this season. In fact, Quintana’s been one of the bigger disappointments for the Cubbies thus far.
The southpaw is coming off six scoreless innings against the Mets, but he’s had a few similar performances this year, typically following them up with a bad start like seven runs in 2.1 innings against the Braves or four runs in 4.1 innings against the Giants, like he produced in the game prior to the Mets’ performance.
Quintana’s been dominant in several starts, but he’s also been incredibly hittable in others. He’s 6-4 with a 4.30 ERA, 4.43 FIP and 1.415 WHIP. He’s walking 4.4 per nine innings and has a strikeout to walk ratio below two.
The series will wrap on Thursday with Tyler Chatwood for the Cubs against Nick Pivetta of the Phillies.
Chatwood, like Quintana, has had a huge issue with walks. He had a nice start last time out, but still walked four in the outing. He’s walked more than anyone this year with 49 free passes in only 53.2 innings. It’s quite amazing that he’s got a 4.02 ERA given all the walks. His lack of homers allowed helps so does a low BABIP which is destined to go up and—unless he gets the walks under control—his ERA will go up with it.
The Phillies aren’t a powerhouse offense, but they can take advantage of free passes, especially at the rate Chatwood is handing them out.
Pivetta would be happy to get the run support. He’s pitched well this season with a 3.48 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 12 starts, but is just 4-4 overall. While Chatwood’s strikeout to walk ratio is bad, Pivetta’s is strong at 4.12. He’s striking out a ton and walking very few. He’s also allowed just five homers, keeping the ball in the park when the opposition does make contact. On a rotation with Nola and Arrieta, it’s easy to get overlooked, particularly with Vince Velazquez having the sexier stuff, but Pivetta’s delivering in the middle of this rotation.
Live Betting
Phillies and Cubs neck-and-neck in the race for the best ERA in the NL. Cubs ranked No.2 at 3.23 with the Phillies No.4 at 3.40. The Phillies have gotten more out of the rotation than the Cubs, but Chicago has the better bullpen with a 2.61 ERA as a unit, third behind the Diamondbacks and Brewers, two teams having historic performances out of their pens.
The Cubs have Carl Edwards Jr. on the DL. That is a big blow. He’s the biggest strikeout arm in the pen. Still, Luke Farrell has been able to sit people down on strikes since joining the team while the rest of the bullpen has been hard to score against.
Brandon Morrow is thriving in the closer’s role with a 0.87 ERA. He’s one of six active Cubs’ relievers with a sub-3 ERA and at least 17.2 innings of work.
For the Phillies, the bullpen depth is missing. Seranthony Dominquez has been filthy since being called up with 13.2 scoreless innings and only two hits and no walks. He’s lights out and Victory Arano and Edubray Ramos have both been impressive, too.
Those three aside, the rest of the bullpen hasn’t been as good as you’d expect from a contending team. The closer, Hector Neris, has a 5.06 ERA and 1.547 WHIP.
MLB Pick
This is a good matchup. The Cubs are at home, giving them apparent edge, but the Phillies and Cubs find themselves in similar positions in the standings, having similar seasons.
Philadelphia’s strength, based on the numbers, over the Cubs comes from the rotation, but they have their weakest starter going in Game 1. Look for the Cubs to come out strong and take the first game of the series.
The next two games, however, could be much more difficult. The Nola versus Quintana matchup is not a favorable one for Chicago given Quintana’s stats and Nola’s dominance. Quintana looked good in his last start, but has been hot-and-cold overall. Look for the Phillies to get enough offense to win that one.
That leaves the teams with a rubber match on Thursday. Pivetta has thrown well recently, but Chatwood has worked around his walks to be a useful arm. Chatwood is beatable, but the Cubs offense gives Chicago the edge, at home, and the likely series win.
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